Good Morning.
Some firecrackers in the US markets last night. A quick look at the charts tell me that it was high frequency trading which carried the market all the way up from 1043 to 1059.Only Buyers.
We got a gap.And we are near 5320 levels again.I posted a chart yesterday of an auction between 5272 and 5320 being important for the market today. Let's see how it pans out.
On another note, I want to stress to my readers the importance of inter-market analysis in your study. The header of this blog mentions it as a study of market profile and inter market relationships.If you have to make serious money in this market, you have to develop the edge in identifying the movement of 'hot money' through other foreign markets, commodities, bonds and currencies.So far I have kept it to the US markets, but we will soon involve the rest for getting a better picture.
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14.10
I've stayed away from doing a lot of trading today. The gap up ensured that the market belonged only to scalpers this morning, quick to run away with a 10-15 point gain.
5339 has been the high of the day, very close to the level of 5344 we have been watching.An argument can be made for a trade both ways: a) Trend is up as long as 5225 holds or b) trend is down till 5367 is not taken out.
The fact that we have sold aggressively from these levels as also the up-down moves of over 80 points each, make this a treacherous market to trade.
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15.10
We have done intra-day trades on the blog so far.On days like today, where the market didn't give much confidence for a trade either way, I felt the need to put a system in place which will work for us regardless of gaps, other markets etc.
So I dusted some old notes and have managed to put something together for a positional set-up based on MP levels.
I have put it across to Viren for his views and we will run the trades here live on the blog.They are basically swing trade set-ups with a stop and reverse system ensuring that we will always be in a trade.I figure that the trades will run between 2-7 days duration. Once it works with the Nifty, we'll bring the Bank Nifty as well.
I hope to foster a better understanding of market profile through this.
Once we put up a few trades, I look forward to your comments towards the same.
I've found a name for it too !! A.I.A.T --always in a trade. how's that?
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Thursday, July 8, 2010
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51 comments:
Good Morning Shai & Viren!
Reposting
Gm Shai & Viren
Nf again 5300++ but not able to cross 5320
Can a short here consider with sl of 5325?
GM RM.
Musti,
I think we will be in a small range this morning.Your concept is good, but I'll advise a wait-n-watch approach.
good morning friends
presents before all of you a Sai baba bhajan, since its a SAI VAAR , today
please visit
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/trade-updates-sai-baba-bhajan.html
Thanks
regards
Market men have to decide on what to do at 5320 levels. The second time they are here in two days.
shai/all
gm..dax:(
Dear Shai
Good Morning. I have Quote Tracker software with esignal Data feed costing per month to me near Rs 7000/-. I m not satisfied with this software. Any better option other then Quote Tracker ?
Manu,
Feel your pain, but they didn't play a good game :( .
Pawan,
Plenty of options for MP charts, but all require esignal.
The other options are ninja and amibroker with reg feeds.
dear shai, us future trades above1043. is it good looking.
Yes Ravi,
Staying above 1043 calls for a halt to the downtrend and targets 1083 again.
Dear Shai, i took longs today @5309. Wht sud be my sl?5285??5270.
thanks shai..now i feel i studied something about markets...atleast now i watching us markets and our market levels. ;))
Hi Viren,
Levels 5320 & 5271 indicated in to-days post are Nifty spot or future levels. Generally levels indicated by you is spot or future?
Bose
Bizagara,
Intra or positional?
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Chandra,
All fut levels.
Shai, both.
Positional 5267. Intra now 5315 or day low.
Okay, i am going to play devil's advocate here and say that yesterday's move in the US markets was nothing but a technical pullback rally of sorts. Lets face it, everything is negative in terms of new home sales, jobs created and yet, just because one retailer - State Street Inc. comes out with an upward guidance, the DJI moves up 270+?....totally unjustified!...the worrying thing is that such moves only set up the market for more pain as it isnt a genuine upmove...Also, today Japan has come out with a slew of negative data points, yet the Nikkei rallies hard, the Baltic dry Index is slumping, yet shipping shares move up...looks like the algorithms are having a field day in trading!..I am not a bear and there is nothing more i would love to see than the markets go up, but such upmoves concern me...as if its the calm before the storm...yes...its the earnings season and all...and there are bound to be upmoves, but i guess it would be more stock specific rather than the index as a whole....just my 2 cents everyone...trade safely and trade wise!
GM all.
Viren,
I am using Amibroker juut for learning. Any afl code for MP. Link please? What is time frame to be used for viewing chart for MP?
Bose
yes J,
The pull back is technical and the fundamentals are messed up there. I've watched the BDI fall from early June and am as surprised as everyone on why the NSE didn't go to yearly lows.
Even the shanghai obliged.
I think we have to be careful with any rally just because of the erratic nature in the past ten days. 100 points up, then down, now up again, it's anybody's guess what happens tomorrow.
But technicals and charts are imp to us, they are a barometer to the economy and tell us what is to come.
As you say, trade safe trade wise!
Shai said...
I highly doubt that the Us markets will be quite tonight. I've given two levels for the futures and I thing we come close to one of them tonight.
I think we are looking at a gap open tomorrow 25-40 points.
July 7, 2010 3:31 PM
....Why go looking for an algorithm, when we have a walking talking one right here with us !!
Cheers to Shai.
@Viren
With you two guys aiding and abetting, it won't be a bad idea to begin trading S&P500 once NSE gets into the act!
And algorithms are also created by human beings only - three cheers to Shai!
:)
Viren,
Gap open 20~40 pts to-morrow.......... up or down??
Bose
Chandra,
The ref was made yesterday wrt today's action.
No sign of the sellers since morning.
Viren,
For today's Volume profile, I visited volumedigger site, at what perodicity to be selected for Nifty future?
Bose
Markets have auctioned above 5320 levels.
Use 5316 as a ref line now.
Also keep an eye out for the seller near 5344 levels.
Chandra,
TF is of your choice. Choose what suits your style of trading.
Shai,
trying to understand a bit. 5316 because 5316-5324 represents area where volumes are low? So market trying to fill that area?
GK,
5316 because of the buying volume there around 10.00 this morning.You will see it in any 5 min candle chart. That buyer propped the mkt up.
He will have to be erased.
Shai,
thanks for the reply
5310 and it is setting up for an interesting close
how many of you think we will see 5270 tomorrow?
me
if closes below 5320
Guys:
Just wanted to commend you on the calls the past few days - you've been spot on. Its a great privilege to have access to this blog and your market comments.
Thanks again, and great work!
let me also hazard an answer..I think we should see 5270 tomorrow..
manu always puts a hedge :) .
Shai,
What if we see 5270 today itself? Just a thought.
Daruma,
The pleasure is ours. :) .
GK,
I think I'll go with a 5310 closing.
OK Shai,
My question was hypothetical. Wish to be somewhat prepared for tomorrow. I am fairly sure that we shall see 5270 tomorrow if we close at 5310 odd. but if we tank to 5270, then what another bounce to 5330 odd levels?
i mean 5270 today itself..
GK,
I put up a chart yesterday of the NF, which showed a lot of value creation between 5270 and 5230.I feel that 5270 should protect some downside purely because of this.
ok Shai..i think i am getting a little bit now
AIAT is cool :-* .
shai..
n a good mood:)
Bye friends!
I think I'll go with a 5310 closing.
July 8, 2010 3:02 PM
Just 5 points off..
Bye all.
C you later.
see you all.
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