It depends on how good you read the tape.
I will put up a chart of Infosys later to tell you what we thought of it prior to it's earnings release.
For today, the market will again have to hold 5367 and 5355/ 5344.
The value areas for the Nifty are : 5387-5376-5365
For the bank nifty they are : 9783-9748-9716.
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9.26
Infosys:
Last week I did three trades on Infy. Two winners and one loser. So I was keeping a close eye on the action unfolding.
Have a look at the chart:
This is a profile chart for the past four days.
Notice the chart making 'P' type profiles for the past three days.
In Market profile a "p" denotes long liquidation or selling at the top.
Each of those days had sellers right at the top, so it was a simple arithmetic which said that sellers would step in at the open today.
Also notice that we are presently rotating at 2830, which is a high volume node from the 8th of July.
Also 2800-2820 as mentioned earlier was a seller zone, taken out by buyers last week.
This break has a very good chance of halting right here at 2800-2830.
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10.42
If you are using an MP chart you will see the single prints in this 2800-2820 range.
These are good indicators of direction.
I still consider 2800-2830 as a 'no trade zone'
The market has to auction above 2830 convincingly for longs.
Also note that today being a results day, better to give the market a few more points in range. We can't be precise on a level today.
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11.35
Reliance:
We have been following reliance as well on the blog, and have noted often the presence of the seller at 1090 levels, as well as 1045 being an important ref level.
Have a look at this chart :
Notice the selling at the top of the chart.
Now see the bracket forming, two yellow lines.
I don't want to be taking a trade at the current levels, as it gives equal chances to a move down in the bracket as well as a break-out above.
Let's just say, if you want to be a buyer, buy only when the bracket is resolved.
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Posts
68 comments:
Shai,
On July 13th 2009 we were at 3920 the 52-week low on Nifty and today we are at 52-wk high 5382
Reverse deja vu?
It was height of pessimism last year.
Its height of optimism this year.
Lets see how the day pans out.
Already my favourite stock INFY down 2.3% - "Sell on News?" -- I remember your comment a week back
Girish,
Your observations are very unique. Pls keep posting them.
I didn't knw that we were at 3920 exactly a year back :) .
Gm Sahi & Viren.
Holding shorts from yesterday for 5350
now maintain sl 5385
Infosys rotating near the high value node of 2830.
2800-2820 was the level buyers took away from sellers last week.
Chart of infy posted.
Can I Short Infosys now if so wat can be the SL
Just a note on INFOSYS - Open Interest increased 23% in last 2 days.
And last 3 days it had gap ups. So as of now 23% of longs are underwater.
The max loss of the longs added yesterday at peak = 110 points and minimum loss = 60 points
Whoever said that having a very big OI on a stock or Index at the highest point is bad is totally right.
Shai Bank Nf making New high But Nf cant
Can U throw some light,
I cover my shorts & now try to go long.
Jojo,
If you are short 2850 can be a stop.
But you can revise it when and if it breaks 2800.
Shai I am short @ 2830 it broke 2800 but bounced to 2820
I am using ur MP AFL acc to it next nod it at 2779 is their any chances of testing it. Can I hold the short postional & wat can be the targets.......
Thanks for ur update
Jo Jo,
If you are using an MP chart you will see the single prints in this 2800-2820 range.
These are good indicators of direction.
I still consider 2800-2830 as a 'no trade zone'
The market has to auction above 2830 convincingly for longs.
Also note that today being a results day, better to give the market a few more points in range. We can't be precise on a level today.
Good Morning all!
The ES has bounced off 1082 this morning
5367 is the low of the day so far.
5367 is very clear.
FII's bought 1000 cr again ystday after friday.
So they are buying big, whilst the small timers are booking.
How far do you see this going to?
Rajeev,
I don't like to throw figures around, but the bias is positive.
We like to take one step at a time, and see all things fall in place.
1083 on the ES is an important level.5411 on the Nifty will have to be taken out.
But staying above 5367 on a closing basis, I see no reason why we don't get 5530.
Thanks Shai.
Ga Shai n all, Bn 150 pts away... :)
Shai,
4 back-to-back gap ups in HDFC - you think its sustainable? or will it meet the same fate as INFOSYS.
HDFC is also reporting results this week? (Will confirm and post)
PS: I am just looking at all the 50 stocks everyday and trying to see which ones look strong to get us to 5500+ (or NOT)
Looks like the market markets are "rotating the stocks" one by one. Once a stock reaches its peak that they have in mind - it tanks and next one takes over.
I may be totally wrong on my analysis - but attempting to understand...
Here is a link to track 50 of the Nifty stocks:
http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/niftysparks.htm
Reliance chart posted.
Good Morning Every Body
Girish,
Looks similar to infy, in the sense that we have value consolidation and then break-out.
But the profiles show a lot more balance and not exactly 'p'.
Let's track this a little more closer to it's date.
GM Mynac.
---
Back to the markets. We are setting up for a big move now.
Shai,
Big move on which direction
5367 broken. Now it needs to hold for how long ? what is a confirm ?
I've been watching the market try to make an attempt to go lower for the past 30 mins.
Dare I say, it has been a very lousy attempt.
From failed moves come fast moves.
Look to buy if it gets above 5375 now.
Golfdude,
The markets give us levels as also clues on follow through below those levels.
We look at how long it sustains below a level as also how much it travels below that level.
For a straight ans, the down-move below 5367 should knock out yesterday's lows.
Shai,
I bought the Nifty at 5365 after your comment posted at 12.26 pm.
I've kept 5354 as a SL, what is the target for this move?
I saw 5382 and now 5362.
All my profits disppeared.
Any news came.
Yes Rajeev, we recorded a 20 point drop.
The market is too coiled up, looking to break free.
shai and all
ga
u still hold a long view intraday after breach of 5367
Thanks for your response on HDFC Shai.
Earnings for HDFC tomorrow.
http://indiaearnings.moneycontrol.com/sub_india/results_calender.php?sel_date=2010-07-14
The two key differences between HDFC & INFOSYS:
1. INFY OI went up 23% and stock was up 6% from lows 4 days back
whereas HDFC is also up 6% in 4 days but OI is only 5% up
2. For INFOSYS there was decent amount of call writing at 2800/2900 strikes but for HDFC there is not much call writing at 2900/3000 strikes.
Lets watch the stock tomorrow.
Manu,
5367 has an imp role on EOD basis.
For intra, I mentioned 5344-5355-5367 as imp levels for buyers to defend yesterday.
It's a very "jumpy" market, typical results season activity.
Girish,
Thanks for that link.
Today's action if it closes around here at 3062, forms another 'p'.
But the overall profile is not as weak as Infy.
I may look at taking a samll short position at EOD to see if we get 3008 tomorrow.
Moody's downgrades Portugal.
Market men are clueless to the direction of the Nifty.
It's FII buying v/s foreign markets and weak technicals (not MP) .Add earnings volatility and a lot of us market technicians will have eggs on our faces. :) .
Futures are flat w.r.t spot.
No Shai.
We are firmly behind you. You are different.
Please do not consider yourself like the rest.
I have stopped visiting other places, after I landed here.Nice clean analysis, no gimmicks.
BN above 9884 wil fire big time....
Thank you Shai.
Booked one lot at 5387.
rajeev,
5411 is next port of call.
Bring your stop to 5374.
5404 now.
5409.7 is the high of the day.
Should I book. I have only one lot.
BN 9916 - 9970 ...
Shai 80 more :)
rajeev,
5413 now.
Bring stop to 5408.
Congrats VJ.
I know your were speaking about it yesterday.
Thank you Shai. Booked fully.
I'm a small trader, but today thanks to you I made 3000/- in profits today.
Friends, I used to visit a lot of blogs and lost a lot of money. Nowadays I just stay here and read all of Shai's comments.In the night, I read them again.
I have gone from trading one lot to two lots only from the profits from Shai's levels.
Rajeev,
Congrats. You earned it ! :) .
I felt your pain, when you commented earlier that "your profits disappeared".
I'm happy that you decided to stick to your levels.
Kudos Shai for such perfect lvls. Beyond 5411 what?
Vj,
The major move is done, we may get to about 5425 max today.
Suddenly the positional 5530 is not very far off.
I have to agree with Rajeev.
Shai has been very helpful and always gives insightful replies to my queries.
Shai,
another gap up tomorrow?
Dear Sir,
Pls advise me about best intraday time frame ( 5 min, 15 min or 30 min ) setting for trading as per volume profile concept.
SENSEX yet to make a new high
GK,
If we do get a gap-up, it will set us up very nicely for some juicy shorts within the first hour itself.
---
Pawan,
There is nothing like the best TF. It is individual choice. Choose what is comfortable for you.
Thanks Shai,
Shai close above 5400 ?
Vj,
Looks like it.
----
Eyes on HDFC, still at 3063 levels.
Any body knows what time it reports tomorrow?
ES at 1083 levels.
They rallied with us from 1073 levels.I always consider it a plus, when the move is backed up globally, particularly from imp ref levels.
ES n NF next resi? Shai
Lots of volume at that 3065 level in HDFC.
I'll give the trade a miss, but we will see if it still works out on paper.
Short at 3065 for 3008.
We'll know tomorrow.
VJ,
ES should go to 1129/ 1148.
NF to 5330- 5350.
Thanks Shai, bi tc
VJ,
Read that as 5530-5550.
----
See you all later.
5530-5550 *
Bye Shai!
Thanks and Bye Shai
Good info on the blog Shai.
It seems even the FII's read your blog and are pumping in money after your 5367 level has been reached on friday.
Needless to say, on the tube and others on other blogs are talking about dow, fii flows etc etc to justify their technicals.
Guys who were talking 5000 are now talking 5800 on the cartoon network broadcating corporation.
How things change fast within one week!
last week everybody who talked 5400 was not getting any coverage anywhere and today there is not a comment less than 5500 anywhere on blogosphere.
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