The Nifty index has opened at 5254 and quickly moved above 5271 which is what we expected yesterday afternoon in the trade alert.
The open signifies that not much has changed from yesterday's close.
For the upmove to continue, 5265-5271 has to prevail.
On the lower side the support at 5225-5231 has been well documented.
The value areas for the Nifty are 5261-5251-5241
For the Bank Nifty they are 9395-9368-9341.
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On another note, I received some mails about the bearish prognosis for the market presented in the charts yesterday here.
Yes the charts are bearish and point down.
However, I did make a point that if we close above 5367 then bulls have an even chance.
There is nothing new the charts are projecting. We have been saying it all along in the past two weeks.
Friday, July 2, 2010
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41 comments:
Good Morning Shai & Viren!
Gm Shai.
Viren good to see U back in form
It will help all here alot.
gm all
Shai ..r u gautam Shai..
GM RM, Musti, Manu.
--
Manu,
Who is gautam?
dont knw got invitation on facebook..
Shai,
I see that the composite profile on the "right side" has big hole in the range of 5260 to 5290. Is it possible for that portion to be filled with big volumes at 5280 +/- 10 range?
Mkts sustaining above 5271 so far.
Most of you would be knowing these levels and seeing them in your sleep too. :)) .
Girish,
Good obs again.
The low volume represents a slightly lesser trade facilitation zone. The market realises that there has been an imbalance and tries to correct it.
This correction happens through an auction in that zone for an extended period of time and not through high volumes.
You are witnessing that correction to the imbalance now.
Shai,
Thanks for correcting. True its not about the volumes - its the auction process in that price zone.
BTW - I am shoft from 5279 today. What should be the point after which I should give up on shorts?
Girish,
for intra?
Sorry I didn't specify - its for intra day.
That's been an awesome trade.
You can book near 5240 or keep tsl at 5257
Thanks Shai - I booked 50% at 5243 and kept rest with SL at 5257
GA Shai n all, 5240 n 9340 low. Jus awesome.
Some excitement in the Nifty in the last hour.
Trade idea :
Buy above 5285, sl 5262, target 5315/ 5323.
GA VJ.
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Yesterday Viren mentioned about the noise at 5300 in open interest. Yesterday we added about 10,00,000 in OI at 5300 CE. Today almost 800,000 in OI at 5300 PE uptill now and we are about 20 Nifty points in diff btw yesterday and today on avg.
Noise is a small word for it :) .
5280.9 high till 12.30
Shai,
S&P is oversold and also has +ve divergence - I know u don't like Moon, EW, Oscillators ... :)
So will there be a Friday relief rally in S&P?
Girish,
Don't know about oscillators, but the ES future printed a low at 1006 and has bounced from there.
I think it sees 1036 again and comes back to test the low again and a few more.
According to EW, the C wave completes near 1014 future.
Time is running out for the market on the long side for both intra and positional.
Yes fall from 1130 to 1006 is pretty sharp and some reaction might be there. As you said close to 1036-1040 the previous lows of Feb/May/June is definitely possible.
I too don't understand EW either. Once someone starts liking MP based trading its tough to go back to some wave numbering which is so subjective.
Shai,
How do you label it as a 'c' complete.
Girish,
EW is good for an intermediate term perspective. It gets noisy in the short term.
Rajeev,
1216 to May 25th low of 1032 as 'A', 1032 to prev high of 1130 as 'B' and a faster 'C' from 1129 to 1014 ( 61% of A).
Quick Question guys:
Will the Indian Markets be open Monday if there is some sort of Bandh.
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article495560.ece
thanks
Daruma,
Doubt if we will be closed.
Thanks for bringing it up anyway.
Dear Shai, as u gave time is running out for longs. Can we now consider 5367 as medium term low and go positionally short(i know u do intraday but plz give yr idea)?
Thanks
5300 PE got to 10,00,000 first today.
1 all. :) .
shai
frm soceer to tennis
both in season
love all
But man - yesterday 5200CEs was showing 12L at 3:30 and in Bhavcopy it ended up just +6L
And today even 5300CE is +7L. So I would just trust Bhavcopy data.
Bizagra,
Yes 5367 has not been scaled for two weeks now and implies that the move from 4950 is weakening or has weakened already.
It is a good stop on closing basis.
You can add on a break of 5196-5225.
Girish,
That why Viren said before the close that it is intra noise. Ignore it.
I was just pointing out the fickle nature of the OI there. yesterday it was the CE and today the PE.How can you base an analysis on that?
Shai,
I was talking about the difference between Intraday and Bhavcopy can be as much as 50%
True - we need to look at the range and not just 5300CE/PE.
One thing for sure - FIIs have been selling in index futures and buying Options. Along with that 4700/4800PEs OI is going up too.
Its anybody's guess on how to connect the dots and come to a conclusion.
Girish,
Well put.
Successful trading = "connect the dots and come to a conclusion" ...and implement it too!
Manu,
U with argentina or germany ?
haha
i thought of a final btwn them..
i like "messi "a lot but FIFa is biasd fr EU..my fav team DAX
Shai - thanks for the good discussion and help with levels for my short trade.
Have a good weekend!
Manu,
I think Argentina takes it away.Messi will shine at the right time.
shai
its team ..dax as a team is good..
argnts are very agressive ..leave thr brains at side sometimes
On a lighter note,
Some more "connecting the dots".
At 4950 the market had a 20 point discount and moved up 400 points. Now it has a 15 point premium so.....
See you all guys...
Have a great weekend.
Bye Shai, you too!
Looks like Viren began his weekend a day too early.
:)
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