Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Estimates for 7th July

The markets have opened down as compared to yesterday's close.

The little weakness was there in the charts and we made a mention of it at the close yesterday.

For today, we want to see 5270 being protected by the buyers, for the upmove to have any chance.

On the upside, resistance is again at 5317.

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10.43



As traders most of us have been brought up on a mechanical trading system which can give us automated signals to trade on.

The so called search for the "holy grail" of trading is the search for one such system which can help a trader by taking away his decision making ability!

The truth is that the best system of trading and the holy grail is within you !

Only you have to empower yourself to make the decisions for your trade, rather than your mechanical system.

The reason I like MP is that it is not a readymade system which gives signals. As a trader you have to stand up and identify the signal.There are many other systems where the trader takes precedence over the system simply because he makes the decision.

I mentioned to you yesterday that you identify your trade in the chart through price and volume and use everything else for a confirmation.Trust me you will emerge a better trader.

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11.17

This market is looking for cues to the upside from the US markets. Till the US futures trade above 1043 levels, the reversal over there is not confirmed.It can also show levels of 990 in the short term. Currently at 1020.Keep an eye on it.

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41 comments:

r m said...

Good Morning Shai & Viren!

Shai said...

GM RM.

---

Kkay,

All prices on this blog for indices are future prices, unless mentioned otherwise.

Shai said...

My sell order in BN at 9525 has not triggered still.

Hope others have got in.

kkay369 said...

@Shai
thanks
kk

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai & Viren
Thx for your last time msg I book out some of my longs But still carry huge position.
Try to get out near 5300++ if we reach it.

Unknown said...

@ Viren,

With due apologies, I was not making any comparisons but projecting the simplicity of your's and Shai's thinking and analysis.

Another example is your short call on BN last night.

I am tired of analysts who project the successs of their analysis with first an rsi, then a macd, then divergence and so on. How many things are we supposed to look at and where? when? Each day they bring a different indicator to talk about their success.

I am very clear in my head that from now on I will follow Shai only.He gives credit of his success to his system and takes the blame for the failure on himself!!

I'm a fan.

Shai said...

We are very close to yesterday's 5253 and heading for a pause to the auction.

BN is very close to Viren's 9458. low has been 9470.

Suggest booking part profits if you are in shorts.

Sathya said...

Dear Shai,

Kindly give the MP values for Nifty and BankNifty.

With REgards

Sathya

Shai said...

Sathya,

5299-5271-5243 Nifty Price Profile
9535-9463-9401 Bank Nifty Price Profile

Sunny said...

can i long from here in bank nifty ?
regards,
alpesh

Shai said...

Alpesh,

For longs the stop is 9437 and 9400.

Shai said...

Nifty not a buy till we sustain 5271

Shai said...

Rajeev,

As traders most of us have been brought up on a mechanical trading system which can give us automated signals to trade on.

The so called search for the "holy grail" of trading is the search for one such system which can help a trader by taking away his decision making ability!

The truth is that the best system of trading and the holy grail is within you !

Only you have to empower yourself to make the decisions for your trade, rather than your mechanical system.

The reason I like MP is that it is not a readymade system which gives signals. As a trader you have to stand up and identify the signal.There are many other systems where the trader takes precedence over the system simply because he makes the decision.

I mentioned to you yesterday that you identify your trade in the chart through price and volume and use everything else for a confirmation.Trust me you will emerge a better trader.

Unknown said...

hi shai and viren.. i am short in infosys @2748..what u think? shall i book loss...

Shai said...

Creation,

Viren posted an update to the Infosys call yesterday. We booked our loss at 5262 yesterday.

2762 is a high vol node and likely to support prices up around there.

Further up 2802-2820 are huge areas of supply.

If you can micro-manage your trade now between these points, do it.

Shai said...

***read as 2762 not 5262

kkay369 said...

@ creation
i think SL for infosys was 2762 given @ trade
if i am not wrong because my SL hit.
pls do trade with STOPLOSS
kk

Unknown said...

ok thanx shai

bizagra said...

Dear Shai, infosys levels u gav are future or spot??
Thanks

Shai said...

The selling just seems to disappear around 5250 and gets extremely aggressive around 5320.

---

Bizagra,

These are spot levels.

Shai said...

11.17

This market is looking for cues to the upside from the US markets. Till the US futures trade above 1043 levels, the reversal over there is not confirmed.It can also show levels of 990 in the short term. Currently at 1020.Keep an eye on it.

Shai said...

Did anybody take the BN short at the open?

bizagra said...

Dear Shai, is Infy a short candidate below 2762??
Thanks

Shai said...

Looks like nobody got in.I also missed my entry by 5 points.

Both Viren and myself are back testing several set-ups based on MP.

So far most of the back-testing is complete and we are waiting to test our results in live market set-ups.

We hope to bring this analysis to you through this blog.

vj said...

GA Shai n all, waiting eagerly for ur analysis...

Shai said...

Bizagra,

Yes. But take a trade about 5 points below.

I guusest a long here with a stop at 2758

Shai said...

***suggest

Shai said...

5253 holding.

Suggest to get long above 5271 with a 20 point stop. target 5289/ 5299.

Shai said...

Infy has moved up 20 points from the trade location suggested at 12.42 pm at 1268. Currently at 2788.

Shai said...

Correction again ...12.42 pm at 2768.

INDITRADER said...

Shai Nf near sl
Hold or exit from It?

Shai said...

5251 is the Sl.

trade never made an attempt to auction abv 5272.

Exit if 5251 is taken.

Shai said...

stop taken. exit from long call.

vj said...

5242 nf low...

Shai said...

VJ,

5242 is also VAL.Market has rotated between 5272 POC and 5242 VAL.

It's unfortunate that we didn't get above 5272 for that trade to pull off.

vj said...

yes shai, looks like 5225 on d way.

Shai said...

"From failed moves come fast moves"

We spoke about 5270 in the morning post.I just thought that the market had a good chance to overcome that level after the auction slow down near 5258 in the morning itself.

This action today is a repeat of last week's two 100 point days.

Again, the writers are the winners.

manu said...

viren/shai

inputs fr conservative longs..

square/reverse

Shai said...

Manu,

What is a conservative long?

Mkt is still in a range, but showing an increasing tendency to breakdown.

From 5367 to 5344 to 5320 and now to 5270, the seller has become more aggressive.

Shai said...

I highly doubt that the Us markets will be quite tonight. I've given two levels for the futures and I thing we come close to one of them tonight.

I think we are looking at a gap open tomorrow 25-40 points.

Shai said...

Bye RM.

See you all later.