The markets seemed to be coiled up again this morning.
I missed the entire day's action yesterday, and am back just looking at my charts.
Will post some charts and analysis in a bit.
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10.16
Here is a chart of the Nifty future.
We can see that the market is auctioning currently below yesterday's value implying that sellers are in control.
Incidentally yesterday was a classic action of 80% rule again, open below value went to hit the POC as we expected in the EOD post and went up all the way to touch value high, before meeting sellers again at 5408/ 5411.
Who says that the market action is boring--It is so damn predictable :) .
Let's look at the Bank nifty chart
If we look at the chart, we notice that that value is being created lower as also an auction below the 9968 zone which we have been marking out all of last week.
The chart wants to go and meet 9842.
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Posts
50 comments:
Good Morning Shai & Viren (in absentia)!
Good Morning shai and viren
Good Morning,
Can you please post EOD chart every day with your comments. They are very informative.
Thanks
Raj Lakhani
GM all.
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Chart of Nifty and BN updated.
GM Shai,
Here's some OI data analysis:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_xQfPkpQXjMc/TEcUPXafqUI/AAAAAAAAAqQ/sS6P_c902Eo/s1600/OI_analysis.GIF
Yesterday action on 5400PEs and 5400CEs both adding says indecision at 5400 but overall OI of 5400CE (91L) vs 5400PEs (55L) says time is running out for bulls.
Today if market starts falling I would expect yesterday's 9L 5400PEs to unwind pretty fast. Otherwise possibility of Nifty stagnating & expiring at or close to 5400 increase.
Another weird thing is 5300PEs cut OI of 6L - Now the premium is significantly reduced and the risk is for new 5300PE writers if market gaps down or falls.
On world market/US treasuries ..
1. S&P failing to decisively conquer 1083 is also bad.
2. Yields on US Treasury Bonds are firmly under 3.0 now - which indicates flight to safety - selling risky assets - metals, commodities & stocks (developed and emerging markets)
Shai CAbn we short BN at this level as you had said below 9940 its a clear cell
yes powertrade,
It is a sell and hold till we get 9842/ 9765.
Sl 9990.
Thanks Shai
Girish,
That reduction at 5300 PE is baffling.
But 5500 and 5400 CE point to an expiry below current levels.
@ Raj Lakhani,
I will try to as often as possible.
GM Shai n all, m' back after a break. S&P 1055 good sup shai?
VJ,
GM.
Supports are 1044-1050.
It has given one bounce from 1050.
Just looking at a 10-day chart - its amazing that we are within 100 point range in NF 5350-5450 and out of that:
1. 5450-5440 lasted for 5 minutes
2. 5360-5350 lasted for less than 10 minutes
The humanly tradable range was only 80 points in last 10 days!
Shai/MP Experts:
Any ideas on Ranbaxy - is the MP telling you guys anything.
Thanks!
Daruma,
Is there any news trigger on the chart?
The daily TF seems to suggest a seller right around here at 458-460.
However an auction above 462 levels can paint more upside in the stock.
The flip side is a move to 437 levels.
5411 :)
Shai Indusind bk , rec ltd n pfc MP values pls
Shai:
No idea about imminent news - Would like to see the 430-440 area revisited. But who knows!
..
Looks like indices have made their mind up ...
want to move up.
exit BN shorts above 9970.
Buy nifty 5405 target 5423, sl 5395.
thanks shai
Good Noon Shai,
Nf again stuck @ 5411
still U think to go long safe?
Musti,
It's a 10 point anticipatory trade I took, but safer buy is above 5411.
seeems today we are going for 9840 in BN SHAI
Exit Nifty longs if 5395 is taken now.
great market shooted upppppppp
How many people got in long above 5411
Was long from 5406. Sl was not triggered!
Yes that was one of the narrowest missed I think 5 paise.
I didn't get any fills above 5411, only the anticipatory longs
I think from 9 it went straight to 15
Hope people exited BN at 9970.
ya shai i exited BN at 9946
Count me in Shai nf + Bn @ 9970. cmp 10066 :)
I got in at 5405 also my stop at 5394 also saved.
Booked one lot at 5438 level. Holding one more with stop at 5423 waiting for instruction from the master.
Truly there is nobody like you, Shai!
Simply the best in the land! :) .
Yes it seems a lot of people didn't get the trigger at 5411.
Tough luck. Only we people who did the anticipatory act benefited, though we got very lucky.
One more point below yesterday's POC and we would have been cooked too !!
Exit if you still hold longs here at 5438.
Looks like indices have made their mind up ...
want to move up.
July 22, 2010 1:12 PM
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exit BN shorts above 9970.
July 22, 2010 1:13
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Buy nifty 5405 target 5423, sl 5395.
July 22, 2010 1:17 PM
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It's a 10 point anticipatory trade I took, but safer buy is above 5411.
July 22, 2010 1:41 PM
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Only 2 words : SIMPLY OUTSTANDING.
shai theres a rising sedge in BN from 9950 to 10060 can we short here
Sir I am holding 5100 augst put @ 60
Now is @ 33
Can I hold Will I get it to my cost or shall I exit & take long
Shai,
Looks like Rajeev is a big fan of your work.
Count me as one also.Sitting with 5000/- + in profits only through your analysis. My broker had given a short call at same level with SL at 5424. Happy I stayed with you :) .
Powertrade,
yes there is a seller at 10060 levels, But I'll avoid a short trade now, purely because of positive buying momentum and risk-reward.
Sir I am holding 5100 put of august @ 60
Now it is trading at 30.
Is their any chances of getting it to my cost
So 10160 should be the level to short shai i suppose
S&P fut 1076, Shai Indusind bk , rec ltd n pfc MP values pls after mkt hours :)
Bye Shai, thanks for the wonderful call!
shai,
awesome call. Got in at 5400 and still holding for tomorrow. 5480 looks like possible if world cues are pos.
Shai,
I couldn't thank you as I went for a meeting.
I made 20 points from 5403 to 5423 - I had to close it as I had to attend a meeting but any money is good money!
VJ,
PFC= 326-323-320 for today.
I do not have data for the other 2.
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