Expect a large move either side today.
For the upward momentum to continue, price needs to auction above 5465 first and then 5485 on the hourly.
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10.07
The following are the value areas for today :
9994-9935-9912 price profile BN
5423-5389-5376 price profile Nifty.
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11.46
Often the market throws at us recurring patterns which look simple and symmetrical in hind-sight.
An example would be the last range between 5355-5411 which was predictable till it had to give way.
I was looking at some previous charts and found this symmetry.
I don't want to read too much in it, but helps to keep it at the back of your mind.
Notice the similarity in the bar action as pointed by the yellow arrows and notice the similarity of the opens.
I maintain what I posted in the morning: the positive momentum continues only on an auction above 5465 levels.
Posts
59 comments:
Good Morning Shai & Viren!
GM Shai & All! missed ur yesterday calls
GM Shai, RM.
Here is the data from Options OI land:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_xQfPkpQXjMc/TEjtLvl8ObI/AAAAAAAAAqY/Xav73QEb-vc/s1600/OI_analysis.GIF
Options data shows all sorts of fireworks yesterday - specifically action at 5400 was worth looking at:
17L calls covered and almost 11L puts written - indicates short covering. But still @5400 there are 73L calls vs 66L puts - only a follow up call covering/put addition would make Nifty stronger.
With 1.28Cr of calls @5500 - only a miracle would take Nifty above that level.
GM All.
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Girish,
These guys have become fickle, they change by the day! In the good old days, we used to write till expiry!
There is put writing at 5500 also. That is a large qty too.
Gm shai thanks for PFC values. dn side looking for 5430 n 10025
Hello Shai: Gud mrng. Nifty took support around 18.75PE, (i.e., 4800) levels and should ideally move to 21.75 PE ratio (i.e. 5568) levels from the fundamental perspective.
Of this and that,
Very interesting.
What could be the PE ratio if we move to 5800 by sept/ oct (next quarterly earnings?)
good morning! Yesterday I have sold nifty @ 5385 with sl of 5412, but my sl did not execute and it exploded upside. What can be my strategy for today, Sai please advise. Sorry for asking advice for indivisual position, but this may also help a few others.
PE ratio could be around 22.65 Shai for 5800 levels. We could also send July series at around 5632 levels(22PE).
Shai,
We are in the HFT world and Algorithmic Trading is in India too. CITI and few other hedge funds are using it on NSE.
As you have posted before - use tape reading + better tools - what better tool than MP :) in these kind of markets.
Sk mishra,
Ideally the Nifty should come back to test 5423-5430. If it breaks you have your cake, but looks unlikely at the moment.
For 5423-5430 to happen surely, indices should trade below 5465 and 5485.
Please trade accordingly.
Bn lvls pls Shai?
Of this and that,
Do you mean July or aug?
I mean July series around 5630 kind of levels. August i expect breakdown. The trading range has changed and correction in August could be to around 4900-5000 levels. Your MP profile is an excellent system and auctions above 5630 would be difficult in another week's time and market must come down, say after August first week.
Addendum: I had used your formula Shai to calculate expiry value for July series and it showed 328 points up from opening of July which comes to around 5320+328=5628 and from the low of July it comes like 5225+328=5553 levels. So possibility could be between 5553 to 5628 for the July series.
VJ,
9994-9935-9912 price profile BN
5423-5389-5376 price profile Nifty.
Thanks Sai
Yes we had looked at 5530-5550 earlier.
falls in line, considering that earnings have been good and in line with expectations.
Is there any trading call?
Guggu,
None yet.
You can sell on break of 5450 for 5430/5423, with stop at 5467.
Looks like the mkt will auction here btw 5450-5467 for some time.
GM Shai/Viren & all friends.
I am holding august 5100 Put
Is their is any chances of market correcting to 5000 levels by august
http://marketpulse-snp.blogspot.com/p/nifty-pe.html
Good Morning Sahi Sir,
What a level you caculate 5411, I have used this level 4 time in short position, yesterday I also short at 5405 but my double qty SL is 5418 and book today at 5470.
5065, 5225 and 5411. All level rocked.
sold nifty @5447
Pawan,
I was going through some old posts yesterday and I found this one comment from Shai on the 13th of july in the morning at 11 am :
Jul 13, 2010
We like to take one step at a time, and see all things fall in place. 1083 on the ES is an important level.5411 on the Nifty will have to be taken out. But staying above 5367 on a closing basis, I see no reason why we don't get 5530. ...
http://vtrender.blogspot.com/
The amazing thing was that Nifty had not traded above 5411 prior to Shai's comment at 11.00.
Shai,
I looked at your chart posted on the day we hit 5450 last time
http://vtrender.blogspot.com/2010/07/eod-14th-july.html
It seems that VAH was between 5430-5440 & POC was close to yesterday's VAH of 5423.
Some run up from that level is possible?
On the intraday options side:
5400PEs - added almost 10L (need to see how many stick at EOD)
5400CEs - 3.5L calls covered
Action at 5500 somewhat encouraging but may not be enough
5500CEs added 1.67L - bears not giving up
5500PEs added 3.6L - still long ways to go
Book some shorts near 5437, it is a buy zone.
Don't carry large qty shorts.
JOJO,
5000 looks stretched at the moment.
We have had two huge vol zones btw 5355-5411 and 5225-5271.
Both these vol zones will be an insurance against downside movement.
Only a convincing break of 5225 can bring 5000 levels.
Nifty chart posted.
Sai Sir, Thank you! I was thinking to book loss in the morning, but your advise helped me. What level now should i look to minimise loss?
watching for signs of buying here
we made it to the 5423-5430 zone.
A scalp trade....BUY BPCL SPOT @ 635 T1=645
Sk Mishra,
Now an auction above 5450 will mean intra downmove is over. Of course it has to be confirmed with a move above 5366 of the morning.
Break of 5423 will mean a bit more downside.
Amirishali,
U seem to specialize in BPCL.
Please post when tgt/ sl is hit.
Shai ur views on BPCL will be confirmative for my observation.
Shai,
Looking at the charts you posted, we can try a short around 5450 with 5467 as SL?
ha haa haa !!! No dear...I told you.....Ilango & You are my motivators....I learned a lot from you.Still not getting grip on MP but tries to follow it.Reading ur detailed & intellectual blog EOD educates me day by day.Thanks a lot.
BPCL completed 705-635 as per my last observation so took this call for little bounce.Unfortunately Guggu closed the trade in loss but I recommended SL on EOD basis.I'm sorry again for the same.
Educomp 624-605 done as per expectation.
All these positive paper trading CALLS boosting my confidence though I do not trade in FNO.
PFC 326-319 thanks Shai. BN low 10020, holding which century expected.
Shai U got the sign of buy signal of nifty? have closed my short with 8 point gain
Shai/viren,
Its right place to buy bank nifty @10000
BPCL SPOT INTRADAY SL 628 BUY @ CMP 634-635 T1=645 T2=650 . SL is for intraday but targets can be achieved within 3-5 days.
Guggu,
Conf will be a move above 5251.
Gop,
9994 can be a good spot (if we get there) to buy with a 20 point stop.
thanx Shai! will watch both side upwards 5451 and down 5423.
Buy Nifty above 5452 with stop at 5436, tgt 5476/
BN 40 + 60 to go :)
Good one VJ.
For the benefit of all, pls mention sl and tgt's.
Just a quick heads up:
UK Q2 GDP to be released at 8:30 gmt - should move the Sterling and the FTSE -
Consensus is .6 v .3 (QoQ) and 1.1 v -.2 (YoY)
Currently GBP/USD up about 50 pips for the day.
Tsl Bn low, trgt 10120+, personally booked 50% @ 10060
5454 n 10068 break karo, maja karo
BPCL bought @ 635 T1 missed by Rs 1 but off course still valid. T1=645 , T2= 650 SL=628(intraday spot)
Daruma,
Entire commo pack is looking up too.
Equities should follow up.
Imp day for the /es today. Have to take out 1096 today with vols.
Mkts have not done a lot after getting above 5452.
5466 is still unconquered.
Under the circumstances, I suggest making our longs less riskier bu moving our stop to 5450.
Only 2 points of risk on this one.
out of longs at 5450.
yes Shai 5454 n 10068 not easy to break, lets hope for the best.
Is 5423-5486 the new range for the Nifty?
Dear Sahi
What kind of level 5467 ?
Like 5225, 5065 and 5366 ?
If yes then Pls give detail guidance about that level.
Bye Shai & friends. Have a great weekend!
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