The open has been kind to the buyers and a move above 5400 should setup a move for 5421 and 5435.
Watch 5385 on the downside.Refer to last night's post.
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13.38
1.2 Cr + at 5400 July still, that means that both PE and Ce writers are expecting a finish at 5400.
Market profile tells me that 5421 is on, and depending on whether buyers hold there, a further push to 5435/5445.
Guess 5420 is the decider level...we turn back both PE/ CE guys will be happy. If we move up then CE guys cry!
Reverse applies below 5385
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3.43
Nifty moves in a range of 5382-5415 in the July future today, hugging quite close to the 5400 strike where at stake was an Open Interest of 1.2 Cr.
In the end the writers at 5400 who had written yesterday were forced to cover and a few more. Have a look at the chart :
11,37,500 shares got added in the 5400 CE yesterday and 22, 75,050 were reduced as of the close today.
Clearly the writers from yesterday lost out.
We auctioned in the 5400-5415 range for all of the afternoon not quite close to 5420 we wanted but quite away from the value low at 5385.
The market will be ready to give us a clear message from tomorrow again, with expiry pressures out of the way.
Posts
47 comments:
Good Morning Shai.
good morning shai, viren, RM. :)
Good Morning Shai & All!
Shai,
BN is trying to move Up...can i look to enter above 10070 level?
GM sir..give us value area for banknifty future also
GM All.
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Guggu,
Yes you can.But stop will be 10034 today. Trade light.
Gm Shai & Viren
Received a message- " you said 10 point range last night---look 10 points in one hour, market can do anything"
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Rest assured dear friend, we will see 40 points of action.
GM Shai and friends!
It sure will be interesting around 5400. Or may be it will be boring for first 5 hours of trade and then could get interesting!
Prem,
10103-10070-10035.
Dear Shai, sud one buy nifty here or short below 5385?? I mean where the bias is??
Thanks
Reliance holding the key to today's trade.
Stock has a low so far of 1011 given yesterday.
Bizgara,
Longs are less risky above 5400.
This is a no trade zone.
Shai,
5400CE writers are back in full force!
11L calls added this morning - I got out @13.90 with some loss but didn't want to look even more hopeless at EOD.
Some 5L puts are also written @5400 but I don't know if they will keep their position if we tank below 5380.
Axis bank above 1354 cash should move to 1373.
break free !!
Shai,
Thanx I booked BN with 13 point gain :)please tell us the stop loss of Axis Bank spot
RE breaking DH tgt 5420
Yes,
That minor hassle at 5411 needs to be taken out...will be good for next series too...
Guggu,
Axis only above 1354.! 5 point stop.
can we get to 5445 after all?
Above 5421 it should be a cake-walk.
5445 is from our dear friend Mr Vix.
GA Shai n all, Nf aug above 5411, will this do the trick?
Shai:
Can I short BN here @10083
Guggu,
BN is not a short till it is above 10070.
Nifty is not a short till it is above 5385-90.
1.2 Cr + at 5400 July still, that means that both PE and Ce writers are expecting a finish at 5400.
Market profile tells me that 5421 is on, and depending on whether buyers hold there, a further push to 5435/5445.
Guess 5420 is the decider level...we turn back both PE/ CE guys will be happy. If we move up then CE guys cry!
Reverse applies below 5385.
One hour to go...
What is everybody looking at?
I can make out a distinct reduction in the 5400 CE from the morning?
Throw in an opinion on expiry price..
Closing near 5395, a guess.
Shai,
12L calls unwound - may be some surprise upmove possible?
shai & all..hi
5419
5411 closing :-/
I somehow felt that this series was quite disappointing.
Most of the big gains were done in 3-4 gap ups. Assuming we expire at 5400, expiry-to-expiry range was just 80 points that's not even 2% gain. And trading range was 5240-5460 -- which about 4%.
May be next month will provide more opportunities.
Axis bank 1372.
Anybody caught the move from 1354.
Shai:
Good Call of Axis bank, But i missed this bus
Looking at Bank nifty, maybe Nifty too can give a shock to call writers.
18 mins to go...the 5400 Ce is reducing.
Always a case of who would blink first.
BN is very close to that 10211 figure we discussed.
Reliance is a big disappointment again.
Yes Girish,
It is a series which promised a lot and did nothing. At 5225 we feared a breakdown and at 5465 we did not go up.
Let's hope for a better august.
above 10211 next resi Shai?
Vj,
10211 is an MP High Value node.
have to monitor responsive behavior there.
writers of yesterday lost out..refer to table above.
Hi
Ilango Sir referred your blog (in a mail) when I asked him about calculation logic of VAH/VAL and POC...can you pls help in a post? or pls let me have the link if its already discussed in an earlier post
thanks in advance
Anupam
प्रिय Shai ,
आम तौर पे सिर्फ काम की वजहसे मै आपका ब्लॉग रात के वक्त देख लेता हूँ और मुझे बहोत पसंद है! आपके यहाँ के सभी ब्लोग्मेट्स बहुत बढ़िया कमेंट्स देते है लेकिन एक नाम का निर्देश मै यहाँ जरुर करना चाहूँगा और वो है प्रिय गिरीश भाई का !उनका इंट्रा डे O.I अनालिसिस और वो भी खास करके options का, बहुत ही अभ्यासपूर्ण होता है !उनकी मार्केट के बारे में अच्छी खासी लगन,रूचि और ज्ञान ,उनके कमेंट्स में प्रतीत होता है ! उनको मेरा धन्यवाद् !एक परिवर्तन के तौर पर हिंदी में कमेन्ट देना का मैंने प्रयास किया है उसे कृपया स्वीकार कीजिये धन्यवाद् !
Anupam,
The value areas represent 70% of the traded volume or one standard deviation of the price.
Let me know if you require more of the logic behind it.
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Mynac,
How much time did you take to type that out? :) . Your hindi is good.
Yes Girish has been a stand-out boarder. His views are very insightful and clear.
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New Post.
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Mynac,
I have the same question as Shai. You must have a lot of patience to post so much in Hindi!!
I like the healthy interaction here. I am just tying to contribute with whatever knowledge I gathered from past 1 year of trading.
I am also striving to "kick the habit of losing money in markets" :)
Dear Shai and Dear Girish,
Thanks for your comments and you are 100% correct because it took too much time to post almost more than double triple because we are so used and familiar always to type only English.
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