Good Morning All.
Yesterday's print of 5415 in the NF formed an unfair high or excess in the hourly TF.
We also saw buyers yielding to sellers at this level of 5411 which we have been talking about on this blog for several days now.
Once again our view remains that an auction above this zone puts the buyers back in control.
Yesterday was a normal day with a range extension which failed.So the tape is telling us that longer term participants are wanting to come back in, but at the moment the control remains with the short term participant.
On the downside again 5355 and 5367 EOD remain our levels to watch.
5403-5392-5382 are our values for the Nifty.
10032-10010-9989 for the banknifty.
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9.18
Sell Bank Nifty below 10030, Sl 10050, target 9990.
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9.33
Bank nifty at 10000. Book partial profit and hold bal with sl at cost.
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10.03
Yes I know it has been a minor 30 point scalp only. But what can you expect from this market which has moved in a 30 point range for the past 4 days now.
I wanted to give a sell in Nifty, but knew that yesterday's value high at 5393 would come in the way. the low so far is 5393.2.Only a break of 5391 can take it to 5382 now.It's overlapping values within a 5355-5411 which is a 55 point range.
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10.48
You are welcome to post anything on this blog--anything at all to help us better our trading.
The only exception I have is with blog salesmen and their " Look at what I achieved " statements without putting any reasoning/explanation to their achievements.
I also noticed EOD yesterday that I hadn't responded to a few questions. Sometimes I do get absorbed in the flow of the markets. If you feel that i have skipped your question, please paste it again. I assure you that it is accidental.
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010
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67 comments:
Good Mornig Shai and viren
Great shai My Morning Trade in BN and money gods are raining
GM Powertrade.
yes it feels good to start with a good trade.
GM all.
Classic 80 % rule in action.
Shai- Good spot.
Sell axis bank in cash at 1360 Sl 1367, target 1343.
Good Morning Shai & Viren!
Value area rules at play in Nifty and Bank nifty.
Price came from outside value high to points of control. Can see value low also.
Hence half a position still open in BN.
Yes I know it has been a minor 30 point scalp only. But what can you expect from this market which has moved in a 30 point range for the past 4 days now.
I wanted to give a sell in Nifty, but knew that yesterday's value high at 5393 would come in the way. the low so far is 5393.2.Only a break of 5391 can take it to 5382 now.It's overlapping values within a 5355-5411 which is a 55 point range.
I feel that we have reason that the range will break this afternoon.
Out of BN call.
Will look to get in again if the market facilitates.
Hi Viren,
Expected break is up or down side?
Bose
Chandra,
If i knew now i would be in a position already! :) :) .
But we'll know in the next two hours. the market will tell us.
Let's listen to it's message. Right now it has not made up it's mind--It is auctioning between POC and VAH.
Off Topic - great article on trading - specially the 'state of mind' portion.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/d1a482c2-7907-4e4b-993e-4eacfacb5a2d/7495dad7-8430-4372-969b-b864a4b1cfe1.pdf
Shai - hope you dont mind me posting the link - if its a problem, I sincerely apologize.
Thanks.
Daruma, @ All,
You are welcome to post anything on this blog--anything at all to help us better our trading.
The only exception I have is with blog salesmen and their " Look at what I achieved " analysis without putting any reasoning/explanation to their achievements.
Good article Daruma.
Nice clean basic stuff.
Yes I agree. Good points.
Fear, greed, hope, ignorance.
yesterday I did a BN trade in 'hope' hoping that a level of 9368 would break. :((
GM Sahi Sir ,
You check my mail ?
Gm Shai & Viren
another boring day.
Hope to get some action in afternoon.
GM All,
Last day was painful lost exact 2k, first time did the future trading that too in loss, hard luck. morning missed the BN call but got into the axix bank @1363.
Guggu,
In trading you will have winners and losers.You can't win all the time. 7 wins out of 10 is a very good ratio and considered a benchmark in trading.We need to accept losses as part of the job and develop a healthy attitude towards it.
As Shai says " Winners give us money- the losers give us knowledge".
I learn't from my loss yesterday. Hope you did too!
Shai seems like a break of 10000 would give another 50 pts in BN
Powertrade,
9968 should be defended. let's see.
Yes Viren I am with you. I just thought to share with you all my 1st experience in future trade
Hello friends
Blog updated
New trades suggested.
please visit
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/trade-updates_20.html
Please visit, review & encourage..
Thanks
Regards
Am in sync with your concern Guggu.
Let's hang in there. It is a tough market to trade now, but better days are ahead !
Nothing happening in Nifty price but some action in options .. although intraday may not be the reliable indicator posting here for someone interested to know
5400CEs - Almost 4L added
Not much call addition at 5300/5200
Puts are coming thick and fast
5400PE - Almost 7L added
5300PE - 2.5L added - another 1.4 to make the total 1 crore
5200PE - 4.3L added
So in all Nifty looks to be locked in the range 5300-5500 for expiry.
5300PE - Almost 0.986 Crores
5500CE - Almost 1.03 Crores
oops! Axis Bank Stop Loss taken
Axis bank stop taken.
--
Auction between POC and VAH still.
At the moment I'm giving this a slightly up bias, as long as POC holds.
Shai,
NTPC had lots of short covering yesterday with price rise from 199.xx to 204.xx
11% OI reduction -- 24L shares reduced cut in July futures and a similar OI addition.
I went long yesterday for a medium term holding period with a stop loss of 195-198. Anything you see good or bad from MP chart?
Since I am holding this for sometime, your reply can also take time - as long as it comes before my stop loss is triggered :)
Just a correction - 24L cut in July futures and 21L added in August futures.
Girish,
Your OI figure seems to indicate smart money positioning to aug.
yesterday's profile took the POC up also indicating not just short covering but genuine buying.
198 is a good stop, it being value low on several ocassions, but keep it on EOD basis.
On the whole good med term inv, as on the hourly it moves only 3/- per day.
Let's position ourselves. All indications are for a rapid move coming:
Above 5412, 5423 first then 5450.
Below 5291, 5374 then 5355.
Gut feeling - 1st move out of the range (up or down) will be a fakeout - 2nd mouse gets the cheese -
Axis bank 1381.
Swift move above 1365 on good vols.
Thanks Shai.
May be you are setting wrong expectations by answering so fast :)
Hopefully August is when I can make something out of this.
I also bought a July 200PA @0.8 today as an insurance till this expiry.
Shai Seems like Bank Nifty is preparing of a good run up i hope it is on the down side
getting ready to b/out...
in which side Viren ?????????
Bang on target Shai BN 9990 achieved
Shai yt should sl for short below 5391?
all are sitting idle:) whole day just watching screen...but not getting some thing...what a boring day
Does anyone here follow the India VIX and if so, would you please put some color as to where its at, what it looks like etc etc.
Thanks.
I'm back..could not load the site.
Anybody else had issues?
Daruma,
On the NSE website http://nseindia.com there's a INDIA VIX
I didn't see chart though.
First auction above POC, 2nd auction below POC.
Story of the day :).
5374 is here.
We may go down to 5355 now.
watch BN below 9968
Sell Bn at 9969 with a 20 point stop.
Girish:
Thanks a lot - I'll ck it out there.
Also, you were spot on viz a viz your thoughts on the Rupee yesterday - The weakness in the rupee has us concerned as well. Its an interesting dichotomy. Generally, one would expect the rupee to be stronger, especially with the recent GDP growth figures and the RBI action, as well as the recent 3G auction, FPO's etc etc.
The market (currency) seems to be telling us that the deficit issue may be worse than we think. Not todays business, but just another 'wall of worry'!
..
target 9920/ 9940.
5358 and 9946
Time is not on our side for these two great set-ups.
Take what you get.
book out.
Daruma,
Do you trade currencies?
shai again bang on target just 10 minutes and day closes again at profit
5554 and 9940.
Not at all surprised.
The buggers are preparing for the move down in the ES today.
Daruma - I have some selfish motive here.
I have money stuck in my US accounts. So I keep track of rupee everyday. I wish to see 50 again but I will take 48-49 too :)
If more money comes in Inflation might worsen and without money coming in Growth will be an issue with decently high deficit. RBI is definitely walking a tight rope.
Shai - You the man! - 5355.
Did the weekly POC move up from 5308?
Yes Powertrade. :) .
I lost connectivity otherwise I would have put out an easy sell at 5391 for 5374 on the Nifty.
bye shai !!
Shai - yes, usually 6 pairs, USD/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/JPY and AUD/USD. Will sometimes trade the Kiwi and AUD/JPY, but thats just to measure the risk aversion out there.
We've noticed that the NZD/USD and the AUD/JPY are most influenced by risk aversion or lack thereoff.
For instance, when the market participants' want risk, the Kiwi and the AUD/JPY are most likely to trade higher - this usually bodes well for global equities -
Nice day today - great calls and great work.
..
Shai,
From your monthly profile ( http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_w29wphiCeL4/TEFG_KSf5jI/AAAAAAAABIM/LLNQWsbbYRw/s1600/nifty.png )posted over the weekend - POC was 5308.
From last two day's action has it changed?
gr8 blog Shai. don't u feel if nifty holds 5310 kindda level we could still see 5480+ before expiry or if it fails to hold 5310 level, then slide up to 4970 expiry of July nifty. BN is overstretched. RIL holds the key and needs to bat for Nifty now.
Girish,
Yes I had a look at that chart again and POC has moved up, becuas eof all the volume generated at this 5380-5410 level in the past 3 days.
It's now at 5376.
Daruma,
Yes I am well aware of the AUD/JPY as a forward looking mechanism for equities.I mostly take trades on the /6E, but not as often as I like to.
I'm more comfy with the commodities side especially /gc and /hg.
Please post your obs on the forex markets as often as you can. You guys are the rulers of these markets :) .
Of this and that,
Yes 5310 is an imp level.
But the prev vols at 5230-5250 are good supports should we get below that.
Thanks Shai.
Given that POC moved up to 5376 - looks like the seller is in control as of today's closing price.
On the other hand if price stays above 5376 then chances of going up improve.
New post done.
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