5374 is the open of the day and if bearish views are disappointed, it has to be an understatement!
I want to turn your attention back to a previous post: http://vtrender.blogspot.com/2010/07/eod-14th-july.html.
After the high vol downmove on the 14th, we were waiting for a confirmation or follow up action, which incidentally has not happened yet.
Just to refresh it is 5367 EOD or a break of 5355-5411 either side on the hourly, which will confirm or contradict that volume.
The value areas for today are : 5391-5382-5374 for the Nifty.
And 9982-9964-9947 for the Bank nifty.
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9.20
CME-
The Nifty has started trading on the CME from today.
The link to the action is : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/international-index/emini-sandp-cnx-nifty-50-futures_quotes_globex.html.
We will keep an eye on the volumes to see how it will impact the action on the NSE.
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10.30
Guys, I've started this blog as a platform to share and communicate ideas and not as a medium to take a potshot at other people's views and analysis directly or indirectly.
I want everybody to take a leaf out of Girish Desai's book and VJ and Mok, Daruma amongst others who foster the development of ideas.
It is human nature to be critical of things we do not understand or agree with.
We cannot be served well in sharing negative views.Instead let's believe in the sharing of an idea to serve us all better.
Let's focus on the markets, discuss what we are looking at and look at making money in the markets.
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12.15
Earlier I put out an alert for a long trade at 5411.
We had held the view that a break of 5411 and an auction above it would denote continuation to the upside.
Have a look at this chart :
From value high, the Nifty future made a very good move to 5415 on very good volumes.
The evidence pointed to a continuation.
However the profile started showing a slowing down immediately ( yellow Oval) with most of the auction being below 5411.
This was a first doubt. I still thought that the market would return to auction above that level, but subsequent action failed.
Hence the exit.
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Posts
74 comments:
GM RM.
---
The link to the CME action is : http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/international-index/emini-sandp-cnx-nifty-50-futures_quotes_globex.html
----
Looks like the first trade got done there.
Dear Shai GM, can we go long with 5350 as sl??
Thanks
Dear Shai Will you pl guide me on GVKPIL I bought 50CA @ 0.30 I got tgt of 2.00 from my broker I need your valuable advice to hold or sell on what price or keep S/l of -
Reposting from prev post :
Shai,
I agree with Mok and I too will be watching your words on Monday morning after the market open.
Bears are jumping all over just becuase the US markets closed in deep red.My EW newsletter guy has now called 5453 as a top.Incidentally he was very bearish at wednesday close and didn't send an update on thursday and friday close because the market didn't go in his favour.Now the US markets have given him also a dose of viagra !
As per your view we short below 5354 for 5308 right?
July 19, 2010 12:03 AM
---
Shai, bears are not disppointed---they are devastated.
BN has bounced off 9942.
Operator,
I can't comment on the mechanics of the option position, but your broker is betting on GVKPIL reaching 52 latest by expiry.
After the high vol move on 14th, GVKPIL has gone sideways.
It needs to hold the downmove right here at 44.5.
Staying above 46 it will move higher.
Thanks 4 reply I love this site but I dont have technical knowledge hence I never write any comment. But I keep this site as home page. Actually my name is jatin shah and my email id is jatin717@gmail.com
@ Aayushman,
None of these EW people agree with one another, and each expert thinks that his count is right and the best.
If today we trade above 5411, he will send a mail saying that the previous count was right and this is wrong!
FII's bought 676 cr on Friday.
Nifty At value high now.
Auction now over this point is important.Let's see how we react here.
Hi Shai,
GM,
What is our action here @5391. Pls elaborate. Buy or sell with SL?
Bose
Over the past week some experienced analysts on TV and on blogs who were calling for a top at 5400 levels started citing FII flows for a run to 5500+.When they saw the DOW down 270 points they conveniently went to praising their technical analysis.
Why is it difficult to call the analysis wrong, instead of finding 100 reasons to justifty every move.
Operator,
I have traded GVKPIL recently from 44.3 to 46.1 in futures - Its go such big lotsize of 8000 that I can't get sleep overnight if I hold it.
As Shai said - staying above 44.5 is a must for upmove. I wish the lotsize was 4000.
I am pretty sure that it will climb 50 eventually but it may take forever like IFCI reaching 60 - it took ages.
One more thing to note in GVKPIL is that there are lots of calls written at 47.5
If 47.5 is crossed with lots of call covering/short covering in futures it will reach 50. Can't say when - so I have bought 1000 stocks in cash market.
My patience level is too less to hold a futures position for more than 2 days :(
Trading above value high now.
5411 is critical now.
5391 also needs to be protected.
Incidentally value area rule played out.
VAL to VAH.
5415 :).
Dear Shai can we go long now?plz give sl.Thanks
should one buy NF now
Dear Shai
As per Viren I have purchased Nifty above 5411 with both hands. Ha ha ha
Gm Shai & Viren
Sorry I am late today
Nf touch 5415
Acording to Viren it is in buy zone now?
Buy above 5408-5411 with 5390 as SL.
Any target Shai?
I think U mention 5438 right?
Shai,
I'll keep your thought in mind.
On a lighter note, I am reminded of the 'monster jobs' ad on TV, when I see other people analyse.Throw 10 ropes and hope your patrons catch one.
Dear Shai, plz give target for nifty??Thanks
GM all.
GM Viren.
Not very happy with the auction here at 5411.
We'll keep the trade, but try to make an exit around 5424.
Dear Sir,
I have tick data of NF as per format :Time,Rate and Qty. I mailed this data to you. Pls check whether is it any use for us ?
shai .......... BN is moving higher and higher can we initiate a short here ....
power trade,
Small intra shorts cab be initiated only when 10000 breaks.
Not much follow-through buying above 5411.
Thanks Shai......
Let's scratch out of the longs here at 5399.
The view has not worked.
We will re-enter later.
Mr Desai I have also not patience for that I bought Call. Lets see what happen up to expiry
Dear Shai and Viren, dont u think, going short with sl 5415 b a good idea, seeing the reaction at 5411?
Thanks
Chart posted with a reasoning for the exit.
I have shorted BN at 10005 What can be the target as it has broken now Shai
Powertrade,
9970/ 9940.
A break below 9940 sets it up for 9842.All intra levels.
Thanks a lot shai
Bank nifty is a good short here at 9994 with a stop at 10030.
Target 9940.
From failed moves come fast moves...always in the opposite direction.
Failure to take out 5411 has already brought 5385.
Shai now your short call gives me more confidence in my shoer
We have volatilty returning to the markets today.
Let's add to that a failure to auction above 5411 for 3 days now.
US markets closing below ref levels.
How long can our markets hold?
BN should crack below the 9968 levels posted by Shai on the weekend.
Look to add below that level.
True viren A huge run up from 9300 to 10000+ levles some cooling of should be there
hi Shai, Hi Viren, hi all friends,,,
this expiry's analysis of shai would be interesting with all these moves.
Viren, our good fortune u r able to spend some time with us here :)
opps! seems not a good day for trade?
rel cap ( 818 ), dcb ( 49.8), Pfc ( 336 ), rajesh exports ( 93 ) , ifci ( 62 ) , tulip it ( 192 )
6 calls generated on friday, all hit tgts within 24 hours, that too pin point targets.
please visit my new post
http://stock2gains.blogspot.com/2010/07/chamatkar-ko-namaskar.html
please keep visiting to encourage
thanks
regards
Mok,
It seems you are pulling a fast one on me for not being here regularly :) .
--
Guggu,
yes it's volatile. That's why Shai suggested a small quantity.
Viren,
No way :)
rather, i am welcoming you to Your Own Home,
where we are happy to see a very good friend back
:)
I am happy you have completed your assignments and spending time with us, till your next call.
Rochak,
Congrats on your trades. Hope you made good money.
What was your analysis for these trades? where are the charts and your inferences? was a timeframe given.
Please post a link here, only if you can back your "tips" with analysis.The analysis helps us judge whether to go for the trade or not, not your opinion.
I'm not disrepecting your opinion, but I need a validation for the trade.
fresh buy suggested, please visit
stock2gains.blogspot.com
Mok,
:) .
Hope all is well with you.
Shai,
INR after getting a symbol is weakening - up 0.8% today
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=INR=X+Interactive#chart2:symbol=inr=x;range=3m;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined
Just a flashback ...
In July 2008 the currency markets acted as a perfect leading indicators of the big fall coming in September/Oct.
Also 52-wk highs in equity markets should correspond to stronger rupee than weaker rupee.
Viren,
fine & cool,
assignments inbet taking me away from mkt,
off n on,
Girish,
Interesting.
"Also 52-wk highs in equity markets should correspond to stronger rupee than weaker rupee"
I've never analyzed the market that way.
It will be interesting to plot FII flows against what you suggest.
Sorry - I am not trying to be bearish/influence anyone.
Just putting up some facts from past... and past is not an indicator of future!
Shall we continue to hold short call in Bank Nifty?
Shai,
Frm SEBI website we can get historical monthly FII cash market data.
Tonight I will try plotting the FII buying/selling vs rupee.
Guggu,
Here is an opportunity for you to exit the short call at cost.9994 now.
viren shai Bn call is exit or Should i hold with SL
@ All,
I'm still holding BN with stop at 10030.I will look for a level to exit if we do not hit Sl now.
It gets weak decisively only below 9968.
Solid congestion zone. Saw for the first time in my 8 year exp.
Pawan,
I saw your mail.
Tick data should give buyer seller volumes not consolidated ones, for it to be useful.
What is your data source?
stop at 10030 taken.
:|
The best trade opportunity was from value high to 5411.
~*(
I can consolidate data in Excel. These data can be download from TT5 software of India Infoline.
You see there is heavy volume at 5305 to 5314.
~x(
seller at 5408-5411 keeps selling repeatedly.
5385 again.
"After the high vol downmove on the 14th, we were waiting for a confirmation or follow up action, which incidentally has not happened yet"
Posted by Shai at 9:01 AM
---
Didn't happen today as well.
Bank Nifty which we had picked as a short candidate below 9940 on the weekend post, consolidated above 9980 today.The low was 9942.
We jumped off a long call with a 10 point loss.It was a day of poor trade facilitation except perhaps the first hour.
Bye Shai & Viren!
bye shai and bye viren
bye friends
:)
Balanced profiles in the Nifty and the bank nifty.
No resolution.
See you all later.
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