GM all.
The nifty is again opened within value and range of yesterday.
The value areas are 5447-5435-5423 for the Nifty and for the Bank Nifty they are 10129-10072-10009.
In range bound markets, value areas are a definitive guide to the nimble trader.Use them.
I'm expecting one push to the 5465 region today. That will be possible only on a clean break of value high today.
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10.32
Just to add to my comment on price and derivative of price..
Most of us will look at a price chart for a signal, then look at their fav indicator for a confirmation ( newbies do it the other way around).
The way I like to do it, is to read a signal and use price itself to confirm it.
As in BN view above, it is telling me it wants to go down, but I will again wait for price itself to give me that signal.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
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Good Morning Shai!
Good Morning Shai and Warriors
GM all!
POWERTRADE,
Just wanted to put a few words of caution after your mega profit yesterday. I read this one on some blog -
"If you had a loss forget it & if you had a profit forget it even faster"
Trade as if you are back to square one. Just don't let the thought of profits you made cloud your judgement.
In the past I had made quite a bit in one week and lost it all and more in the course of next month!
Thanks Girish i would definitely make it a point
to temember .. Thanks Girish again..
Shai,
I saw your comment and did some quick analysis on 5500CE prices:
1. First 1Cr of the calls were written in the price range 15-35
2. Then a big chunk of 24L calls were written on 21st July in the price range of 12-18
If that 24L written recently are covered we have a path to 5520.
I still think its tough to expire above 5500 but a rise to give them a scare is definitely possible.
Reliance breaking down..
Sell the news on RELIANCE?
I tried to go long at 1060 with a small SL & SL got triggered in a couple of minutes!
The daily charts are already oversold since morning loolking for some bounces...
Girish,
I had some longs taken on monday, but stop got triggered at 1047 today.
Powertrade,
I personally do not put a lot of emphasis on oversold/ overbought as things do remain overbought/oversold for a longer time sometimes.
Best is to follow price, not a derivative of price.
Again A leeson learned Shai ......
Girish,
My obs for the 5500 strike would be to find out how much of that 1.2 cr in OI will migrate to aug in the next 2 days, for us to find the real resistance at those levels and the conviction of call writers to pin price below 5500.
You are right that we may expire below 5500 this july.
watching BN auction below poc at 10072 for some time now.
if it breaks 10050 now, it goes to meet 10025 and 10008.
Lets hope Shai it breaks below 10050 after a huge run up yesterday ...
Just to add to my above comment on price and derivative of price..
Most of us will look at a price chart for a signal, then look at their fav indicator for a confirmation ( newbies do it the other way around).
The way I like to do it, is to read a signal and use price itself to confirm it.
As in BN view above, it is telling me it wants to go down, but I will again wait for price itself to give me that signal.
Hi shai/all
golden words again..
wait fr d price...
BN just got resisted at POC
In 2 hours of trading this morning, we have had auctions around the POC in both the Nifty and the BN.
The open today itself was an indication that not much has changed btween today and the previous three days.
Use value areas now to manage your trades.
A break below value low can see 5408 and above value high can see 5466.Trade small and use the values as ref points if you are in profits.( don't let them slip).
b-(
overlapping va's could be a rotational day
@ Profile trader,
Maybe. But feel that we can get a touch of the extremes of the bracket either at 5408 or 5466.
After a long consolidation BN managed to move above POC can we consider a buy here for 10125
Hi Viren,
I am using Ami after your recommendation of use Ami for viewing MP. I am very much new to afl & modication in afl.
Please indicate changes to be in AFL to get chart like yours. Sorry for troubling you too much. However I am learning a lot after visiting your blog regularly & in-line during trading hrs.
Bose
Powertrade,
Yes.
An aggressive stop is 10064 and a conservative one will be 10045.
Thanks Shai
Chandra,
I have responded to your query in the previous post.
There are no changes in the afl required. You need to alter the parameters of your ami s/w.
Go to tools, then preferences and set background etc as per your wish.
Hi Viren,
Thanks for your patience.
Yah, I tried tools>preference>color to change background to Black. Now better visibilty, But getting indication of VAH/POC/VAL levels Text box. How to get that?
Bose
Bn just rocked :).
10114.
I booked out at 10116 shai
If 10100 is defended then 10158, 10185 and 10211.
10211 has been a short term positional.
lets c how well nf handles 5445 VAH
@Chandra
Right click on chart and click on parameters. Slide down to 'market profile' > click on 'Show Values' - select 'Yes'
Now the Values will be visible on the chart.
@ profile trader,
Feel VAH will be overcome. More worried about the seller at 5457-5465.
Hi Powertrade,
Thanks a lot. I did & found ok.
Any afl code for setting fast raise & fall setup during intraday.
If no, pls indicate chart setting, I will do it manually.
Bose
Thanks shai... Today may be day for that odd 10200 level in BN ...
mode change in the mkt,
stong move below poc
true shai
Hi Friends!
Shai: is their any open call for now?
BN below 10050, is open?
Bn window is showing that we may move to 10013 levels Shai
5387 is a support.
Guggu,
Market moved too fast to respond.
But hope you caught a few.
this was not able to catch the bus
YES Shai!
First time on my screen seeing some profit:) where to book BN.
thanks
book guggu.
10008 was the level to book.
Caught the move. To be honest, i was thinking differently. I was not expecting a move above VAH and so was almost prepared.
above 5411 we can get back to 5427
one more retest perhaps of the lows!
let's see if it holds now.
reliance down to 1028.
1047 was the b/down level.
GK,
I felt at the opening the mkt will go to 5466 for a test, provided if moves above VAH. I said as much in my opening comments.
But the change of mode below POC was not difficult to spot, and once below value low 5408 was definitely on!
With BN below 10050, value low at 10008 was on too.
I'll be looking to short BN below 10000 again to see if I get 9940, with a 25 point stop.
i think v will nt get below 10000..
c Ril cash bulk buying
Shai,
Yes you did say that. Have been following you and trying to understand MP. The only thing that i did was that i thought one sided. Was doubtful that market would move up and considered 5411 as on below POC, so had my order filled up and ready.
Perhaps that is why i caught the fast move. The levels you give Shai, are abolutely fantastic.
So far BN has shown that it wants to hold value low.
If you plan to short below 10000, go with minimal qty---Chances of a fast move up are high.
Also,bring stop to value low as soon as trade moves in your favor.
Shai .. BN window again trying for upmove ....
yes powertrade.
Good obs.
But only if it auctions above 10030
can i play for smll move with SL just below 10005
you should ...always back yourself with the right levels.
5411 is ref line again for Nifty.
Typical rotational day. I hope many picked the top at VAH
Shai,
This is one of those days when I had 7 long trades and 6 of them have hit stop losses!!
I have bought a few 5400CEs @17-18.5 range. Its a gamble worth tanking is my gut feel is.
this time shai BN should auction above 10030
The profile trader,
Good call at VAH. Please share your views more often.
Do you feel it is still rotational, when there was a clear change of mode at POC where the OTF entered??
Bang on Shai BN again above 10030
Girish,
Hope your lucky 7th trade will eliminate all your losses :) .
Best.
Just Waiting for BN to auction above 10050
shai,
still rotational, see weekly profile for ref.will post chart at evening
Reliance has had a trend day down, with the only intersting thing being whether price would hold at 1045 levels. It didn't.
For tomorrow 1005-1011 should support price.
BN has had an 'inside day' develop.
10070 is again the ref line for tomorrow's action.
bye shai and all
Bye Shai & friends!
Hi Shai; Any prediction for market tomorrow ?
Pinky,
No body can predict.
We analyze and trade possibilities with a contingency plan.
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