Yesterday's rally in the afternoon was based on the assumption that the US markets would hold on to the yearly lows and rally. Well they didn't. In fact they broke down and we are seeing the ES now at 1020 well below it's 1032 previous lows.
We have opened around 5270, 46 points down.
5256 and 5225 are the levels to watch on the downside.
5256 is value area low from yesterday.
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10.49
The chart above is for the NYMO.
I last commented on the NYMO here. There are other refernces you can get if you hit the search box to your right.
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32 comments:
Gm Shai
Is it worthwile to hold longs of tomorrow?
Musti,
Below 5225 we see 5187.Either can be a stop.
For longs to be good, we have to get above 5275.
Shai @ all
Gm..
grasim target done..
Manu,
GM.
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Grasim has been very erratic.
I am continuing to hold it.
Volumes aren't much, but value is being built higher.
Getting confusing signals from the US markets.
The NYMO which we follow here is not even close to the February lows.
Our markets holding below yesterday's value low at 5256.
For longs to be in business, first 5256 then 5271-75 needs to be overcome.
really shai..
plz post d chart..nymo..
sms viren and ask his view n NYmo and ES too
Manu,
Viren will join us shortly.
Markets trading now between value low and 5240 which is also Monday's lows.
Activity has been low after the first half hour.
A break of either level can give you an easy 15-20 points.
Dear Shai,
Kindly provide the Value areas of Nifty.
With Regards
Sathya
Sathya,
5256-5286-5314.
A view from overseas : http://www.marketwatch.com/story/indias-state-run-bank-rally-hits-wall-of-caution-2010-07-01
GM all.
I'm taking profits on my positional shorts here at 5242.
I'm about a 100 points up on them and even though my target is 80 points away, there is a lot of unceratinty to the next move.
I don't want to be caught in the next 100 point run-up which will eat away all that I have.
So taking what I have and living to trade another day.
Risk-reward does not favor opening new shorts here.
GA Viren.
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Thought you would.
Viren..hi
wht guts u had fr not cvrng yesterday..
ur analysis r realy good..
whts d lvl fr ES?
Manu,
No guts actually, quite the contrary.
After adding yesterday,the position size became a little too big for me to think rationally.
Playing safe. :) .
ES should bounce from here.
1000-1015 is what I saw and we were there in the morning
Even if it goes down, I don't want to be a part of it.
5225 had a buying tail yesterday and not reached this morning.
I think we should look for intra-longs around here.
Of course it is safer if we get above value low at 57
Going long here at 5242, stop 5220, target 5271
Dear Shai,
Had checked with my datafeed for MPvalues and it has shown VAH at 5310.7 rest are the same.Kindly provide the values daily for Nifty and Bank Nifty will check with it for some days.
With Regards
Sathya
Nifty at 5267.
I'm keeping my stop at cost. I feel this move has enough in it to take out 5271.
You can book here or keep TSL at 5254.
Will do Sathya.
tsl taken
Manu,
yes it has.
The reaction from 5269 has been a large one.
let's see what 5240-5245 does.
Looking at the reliance futures chart, it has been a very predictable trade to sell near 1090 and cover lower.
But just in the way value is being built up, I feel that the seller overthere will be overcome.
1092 is the level in the futures, above that it breaks away.
Maybe the cue for the market lies there.
This move today, between 5225 and 5271 is what I was expecting yesterday.
Good value creation happening here, which was needed after the two 100 point days.
I'm leaning slightly on the bullish side for tomorrow.The move above 5271 didn't come today, but I feel it will be here tomorrow.
Just watching the open interest figures, 5200 PE and 5400 CE have consistently added OI.
They represent the range of the market.
Ignore the noise at 5300. It's just intra.
Market profile gives 5225-5367 as the range.
There is a lot of chatter on the net nowadays on Open interest.
Remember writers write OTM options.
Buyers buy ITM or ATM.
Look at the price range and then the open interest if you want to see where the actual writing is taking place.
see you all later.
Shai,
Can you please post the MP chart for last few days?
Thanks,
Girish
New post with charts.
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