The thing with Market Profile is that it eliminates a lot of noise from the trading sphere leaving you with enough conservative trade opportunities which you can trigger with a good risk-reward ratio.
We made it to 6097 last week, 7 short of the "buy the dip" level of 6090 projected last week.
Here are the important levels to watch out for this week. All values are for the Nifty Future.( Please click on the chart to enlarge it. All reference levels are the blue horizontal lines)
For next week, please pen down 6085 and 6001 as important supports and 6192 and 6207 as resistances. A close above 6207 NF will keep the index in the hunt for our projected 7200 level by May next year.
And here is the Bank Nifty chart :
12470 which played out on friday and 12429 are supports and 12640 and 12715 resistances. A close above 12715 will ensure that the index does another 700 points in short order.
In news to watch, the world bank and G7 meeting should throw up an interesting possibility for the open on Monday.The moves coming out of Tokyo have put our lead indicator the AUD/ JPY at a very interesting point where a break to 96 odd will easily ensure the long term target I mentioned above in the post.
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9 comments:
wow - AUD/JPY to 96????
Thats going to be one MASSIVE move -
Daruma,
That's a bit of a longer term projection.
We will be taking cues from eur/usd at about 144 and usd/ jpy at about 79.
Shorter term, the dollar index should rally briefly before plunging to new lows to launch the currency crises everyone's been waiting for.
Shai:
Sounds good - however, we'll be closer to 75 USD/JPY and 1.05 AUD/USD if and when AUD/JPY 96 takes place.
QE2 seems to be the driver of this latest USD push lower. That seems to be becoming a crowded trade, but it may take some time to play out - Also a Republican rout in the house and senate elections seems to be what the market is playing for. 11/2 is congressional election and 11/3 is the Fed meeting - wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of 'sell the news' reaction to QE2 after the Fed meeting.
Take care and glad to see that VT2 is doing well.
..
Here is an interesting analysis of SPY using Market Profile chart by Corey Rosenbloom.
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/recent-market-profile-insights-about-the-sp500-spy/
What I liked about his analysis is the "objectiveness" that Market Profile brings, despite the feelings like "oh man how far will this go", "this is getting ridiculous", "all my indicators are going through the roof" ....
His simple statement sums it all up -
"Though other indicator charts show all sorts of bearish negative divergences, the profile=style chart above reveals a stable and rising Value Area in the context of the current price consolidation.
Whatever your bearish thoughts may be, that’s somewhat bullish from this chart perspective – value is rising"
And my post above has no intention of saying one system/indicator is better over the others ...
Even I am guilty of taking shorts in Nifty when it was rising :(
I am just trying to highlight the fact that, we need to look beyond our emotions and look into something that tells the "message of the market"
Dear Viren, Girsh
Can anybody please provide the Value Area from friday for Nifty & Bank Nifty
Thanks & Regards
Sanjay
Sanjay,
Value areas for Friday:
Nifty: 6150-6140-6125
Banknifty: 12550-12500-12490
Girish,
Yes the S$P is on the way up to 1215 again.
Thank you for posting the values.
Values areas for Monday watch :
Nifty: 6150-6140-6125
Banknifty: 12550-12500-12490
All fut values.
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