Posting weekend analysis of top 4 banks that make up 70% of Banknifty
1. SBIN:
This week as someone in trading room put it 'SBI was taken to the cleaners'. As I had mentioned last week 3266 was the level after which it would sharply rise & it did rise till 3320. And when that 3266 level gave way on the way down it was all tanking. Lets look at supports for this stock.
HVNs:
Below 3192 , next support seems to be at 3150.
If a deeper correction sets in, we could see levels of 3096 & 2973
How to trade next week?
As of now SBI looks 'sell on rises' . If it is resisted at weekly VAL of 3212 (well give a few pts upto 3220), then short with SL @3220.
But my preferred way to trade this is, on bounce to last week's VWAP/POC of 3248 - where shorts can be taken with SL@3266 (for target of 3150-3096). Only if it manages to cross 3284, longs can be taken.
But my preferred way to trade this is, on bounce to last week's VWAP/POC of 3248 - where shorts can be taken with SL@3266 (for target of 3150-3096). Only if it manages to cross 3284, longs can be taken.
2. HDFCBANK:
Weekly Chart
This week's low of 2356 is an important support for HDFCBANK & in case of a further correction it could head to 2336
Monthly Chart:
Monthly chart suggests consolidation & trading within large value of last month.
Monthly chart suggests consolidation & trading within large value of last month.
How to trade HDFCBANK next week?
HDFCBANK is going to report results on Tuesday so one should be careful about large taking positions ahead of earnings.
Given that HDFCBANK has already corrected and it didn't make a lower low on Friday, one can play for an 80% rule trade if it manages to bounce above 2402-2405 then longs can be taken with SL@2382 for target of 2436, 2448, 2466.
Above 2480, this becomes very strong and can even reach 2520+
Two important supports are 2382 (developing VAL for this month) and 2356, last week's low of 2356.
Its a tricky market to trade because we seem to be range bound and not breaking on either side. So positional calls are tough to take. Only being nimble footed and 'long once important resistances are crossed' or 'short when important supports are broken' & taking quick profits -- seems to be the way to go.
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2 comments:
I think let us try HDFCBANK FUT long on Monday - it should go up as it has corrected before the results.
BTW, US markets ended wit NASDAQ +ve and DOW -ve - GAP UP tom.?
Janak,
About US up and Nifty down -- I honestly think that our markets may not be 100% correlated on daily basis to US markets but overall we will be following the broader trend of world markets.
Given the way a total of 40L 6100CE & 6200CEs were written on Friday it looks Nifty may not gap up big time and even if it does, it may come back & test the lows of Friday.
HDFCBANK, like SBI has also gone up more than 50% from its May lows. So we could still see correction to 2336 if results are not great.
So its an anticipatory long above 2405-2410 for target of 2434-2448 OR a very high probability short below 2382 with stop loss at 2405 for a target of 2356-2336.
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