Monday, October 18, 2010

Options/futures data for 15th Oct (EOD)

Summary:
1. Its been a complete "roller coaster" ride for options writers last week. On the way up to 6300+ (in futures), there was massive put writing and call covering and last two days of the week, it was the exact opposite stuff happening! Best Examples is 6200CEs - around 19L 6200CEs were covered   on last Wednesday while Nifty was climbing every resistance with ease and almost 27L 6200CEs were written in last 2 days of the week. With 73L OI @6200CE, 6200 is the current resistance
2. The puts story is more interesting. On 13th OCT, around 20L 6300PEs & 36L 6200PEs were written. In last 2 days, of the 20L 6300PEs written on 13th only 4.7L have unwound. And of the 36L 6200PEs written abount 14L have. So less than 50% of 6200PEs/6300PEs written on the way up to 6300 have unwound so far! From this data I can take a guess that one trip back to 6145-6190-6225 in this week is possible unless all those puts unwind.
3. 6000PEs are merrily adding regardless of the massive fall in last two days. With 85L OI @6000PE, 6000 is the current support. 
4. The only red flag in Friday's data is massive addition of 6100CEs. About 23L were added. Need to track this.
5. PCR has reduced from 1.35 to 1.28 but not a very significant change yet.


Nifty Futures:
2.6Cr OI up 1.2% (3.2L added to OI) -- Not big change in OI.


Banknifty Futures:
14.9L OI flat -- despite the mega fall in last 2 days, BN OI has not changed much. So no big shorts are added. 


Monthly Chart of Nifty:
Below VWAP, Below Value area - sellers are in control as of now. 6145 the developing VAL for the month will be an important level to watch on pullback. If 6145 is crossed, then next target would be 6211. On the way down, 5980 - previous Month's POC is an important level which might be visited if there is more aggressive selling this week

1 comments:

Viren said...

Nifty 6176-6160-6130

Bank Nifty 12570-12532-12498

are the value areas for today. Read as VAH-POC-VAL.