Summary:
1. It was mentioned yesterday that expiry would depend on who is the stronger of two - 6100PEs or 6100CEs. Seems like 6100CEs were came out to be stronger of the two. Almost 15L 6100CEs were added, making 6100 a strong resistance for this expiry. At the same time 15L 6100PEs covered. 6200PEs also unwound quite a bit (11L).
2. 6000PEs didn't unwind despite a fall well below 6000 in SPOT, means that expiry will be most likely above 6000.
3. The next problem for bulls is that Almost 13L 6000CEs were added yesterday. The VWAP for the 6000CEs yesterday was around 60 rupees. So an expiry above 6060 will cause pain to yesterday's 6000CE writers.
4. PCR has retreated to 1.18 - but today being expiry day not much can be concluded from PCR
Nifty Futures:
OCT: 1.6Cr OI down 22% (47L shares cut)
NOV: 1.7Cr OI up 42% (52L shares added) - Third day in a row higher rollover to Nov series. The count is now almost 49L additional shares added to Nov series in last 3 days.
Banknifty Futures:
OCT: 8.5L OI down 9% (0.87L shares cut)
NOV: 12.4L OI up 38% (3.4L shares added) -- In last 3 days we have seen almost 5L new shares added to Nov series. As of now I have assumed that they are fresh shorts. If Banknifty manages to stay below 12500 and makes lower lows than 12200, this theory will be validated.
Monthly Charts:
This month/series started off with a gap up to 6065 (Nifty Fut), and we are slightly below that level a day before expiry - needless to say we just had a complete month of consolidation in the 6000-6300 range.
Posts
12 comments:
Values for Nov future :
Nifty : 6117-6110-6074
BN : 12400-12377-12320
BN buy call suggested around 12220 yesterday in the post is already up 70 points. 12280 now
80 % chance that the low of the day has been seen.
tgt on the 6000 ce is 45
6000 Ce at 45.
Dear Viren, level of 6075NF is OK for shorting positionally.Thanks
Bizgara we will remain here for some time and may also move to 6105 Nov F. Trade accordingly,
Girish Desai: 6000Ce is now priced at 44 - today's VWAP is 37 ; Yesterdat's VWAP = 60 - Pain starts above 6060 SPOT for yesterday's writers and for combined 20L pain starts above weighted price of 6053 (SPOT) -- This is all for OCT
...From Girish.
6105 NF. 12330 BN.
...at 1.55 pm.
Dear wht from here?? i shorted @ 6100.wht sud b sl?
Stay on the side lines for positionals.
Expiry music at play.
Slaughter house 2
6000 CE goes from 12 lacs to 2 lacs.
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