Good Morning all.
The market is trying to find value between 5225 and 5271 this morning.
Let's see how this plays out.
-----
12.07
@ Manu,@ All,
My views on the blog are for intra-day based on market profile levels with no prejudice towards long or short before the open price.
I can take a long view one day and a short for intra next day, based on the info the market gives me.Sometimes I look at the preceding day ( days) activity to arrive at a better judgement.
Somedays I may not have a view at all.
Viren is more of a positional player nowadays and he carries his positions for weeks if not days.I'll ask him to be clearer with his time-frame next time.
Hope I'm clear on this.
-----
1.42
This move above 5271 has caught me napping, to say the least.
Un-accounted would be a right word to use in my case.
I'm staying away from commenting as I am unsure at the moment.
In retrospect, 5225 seems to have been a good place to initiate longs.
I had blogged about that level in my post on Monday morning here.
----
14.31
I am watching the close today and the activity between now and the close.
To me it is a normal variation day, which is a sign of continuity the next day if we hold on to the prices here. Also the open tomorrow should be about here and more.
Secondly, by moving above 5271 prices will show a rejection of lower print and get back into the bracket we have known all last week.
So let's see where we close today and take it from there.
-----
14.41
A quick look at the ES futures shows them at 1039 now and close to the yearly lows at 1036 of the July contract.
In fact the yearly low was 1032.75 in the september contract which has been re-printed today.A break of that level can set it up easily for 1000 to be printed.
Quite a bit of divergence then, they at yearly lows we near yearly highs.
Either they rally or we fall.
The divergence cannot prevail.
---------------
14.50
For more clarity on inter-market relationships check this post here and here
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
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26 comments:
Dear Shai GM. wht sud be our trading plan with these 2 levels? short near 5271? or long above 5271?
Plz suggest.
Thanks
Gm Shai
Nf runs so fast towards 5271 it not gives proper oportunity to enter
Bizagra,
5225 was the target for this downmove which is met this morning.
5271 should resist in the first session.
Use yesterday's 5240 as a ref line.
Then it is 5225-5241-5271.I see a lot of rotation this morning.
Looking for shorts near 5271.
Looks like it will hold for the day.
Viren has texted in to convey that he did not cover his shorts at 5225 today.
He's holding on for 5161 and 5120.
FWIW & FYI :) .
Gm all
Shai/virn..hi..
viren shrtd at wht lvl and whts d Sl
5271 has been taken out on avg volumes.
Will be interesting to see if we sustain above this level for one hour.
Manu,
Not sure abt his levels.Just know that he has been accumulating shorts on every rise.
Positionals have been short with a closing stop of 5367.
shai..
i m confused u & viren..long r shrt and if so frm wht profiles
@ Manu,@ All,
My views on the blog are for intra-day based on market profile levels with no prejudice towards long or short before the open price.
I can take a long view one day and a short for intra next day, based on the info the market gives me.Sometimes I look at the preceding day ( days) activity to arrive at a better judgement.
Somedays I may not have a view at all.
Viren is more of a positional player nowadays and he carries his positions for weeks if not days.I'll ask him to be clearer with his time-frame next time.
Hope I'm clear on this.
hi shai,
its very clear to me. my opinion was when get a chance to u pls publish here. its very use ful to me and all. (now u r already doing it) it by with ur selfishness. thanks a lot for that. and must publish here whats in u mind ..stay long or stay short or keep neutral. like that . because i cant get the volume or market trend easily. and i know its tough
Shai/..
tell me how to calculate day range using vix/IV value
thanks
Ravi
""""""(now u r already doing it) it by with ur selfishness"""""
i think so its selfless attitude..needs a correction
GOP,
In the search option to your right, search for "nifty expiry" where the formula is given.
Input vix for spot or IV for the future.
You will get the info.
Ravi/ Manu,
:D .
our markets are moving in sync with europe...there was a spike in 10 minutes and that was not due to any technical factors playing out, but purely due to a report published by the ECB that only 131 billion euros were loaned out by them which was well below expectations..this means that the countries in eurozone have not borrowed that much which is a healthy sign in the short term
That last dip near 5271 was bought.
The market has made up it's mind to stay in the bracket.
5271-5320-5344-5367 then.
Thank you 5225.
ya shai, right. i am not here at that time to correct. power gone here
Thanks J,
I read that report.
Bank nifty moved up a 100 points..
But there were good volumes across the board.
shai, can we go long from here? if so what may be the sl
Ravi,
Go with half a position here. Sl 5265 ( 6 points below 5271).
Expect to see a continuation of this Nifty upmove, at least at the open tomorrow - spooz will probably give the obligatory break of 1040, clean out some stops and rally late in the session, thus giving the Nifty a decent 30-40 point gap up tomorrow.
Straight from the gut, thats all -
..
Tomorrow buyers will be tested again right here at 5320 and then at 5344.
I feel the expectation of a rally in the US already built in. Maybe a flat open or open at 5344.
Let's see...
Yes Daruma,
A normal variation day points to a continuation.
The seller at 5344 is strong and has shown his hand more than once.
So will be a battle tomorrow.
Shai - thanks - great work as always -
I think a break of 5340-5345 will send a lot of Black Box - SAR guys long.
dear shai,
have u seen the implied volality sheet.?
best
sri
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