It seems we have another quite morning on our hands in the first session today.
5266-5271 should provide initial support below which value areas will have to be watched.
Bank Nifty did not participate in the big run-up yesterday afternoon, so keep an eye on it for weakness and for short trades.
Here are the value areas :
Nifty= 5258-5226-5206
Bank Nifty = 9548-9514-9479.
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10.09
Profile chart of 30 min duration Nifty Future :
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12.45
Uploading a volume profile chart 5 min duration yesterday and today.
Notice that the 'b' shape of yesterday is getting filled today on the upper part.
If the auction continues down then it should fill up 5225-5238.
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3.06
Updated chart of the Nifty Future shows how value has been created in the upper part of yesterday's profile.
The profile itself is balanced.
Also, notice that it is inside yesterday's range entirely, also called an "Inside day" by traditional systems.
So we have to wait for cues on Monday.
I'm leaning to the short side a bit, but will take a call after the open on Monday.
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Posts
86 comments:
Good Morning Shai.
There seems to be a typo in bank nifty values.
regards.
Gm shai..
nw stuck in Hcl..
GM SHAI SIR,CAN WE SHORT NIFTY FOR INTRADAY TODAY
Gm Shai,
waiting for 5310
RM,
Thanks. Corrected.
Manu,
short in HCL ?
goodmorning shai,
goodmorning RM, manu,
:)
can never overtake RM here :)
quiet morning, watch 12.30. then ...
5266-5271 initial support.
below that the value areas watch, ok
Gm Shai and all! yesterday i had a typo error. in stead of selling 5300put, which i had got in the morning, i bot again when the icici rumor took the mkt down.(detected today morning only) need advice if i shud hold or quit at market now. or any SL that i can wait for!
yes shai..
ws greedy n d morning ..put a buy order at 384.1
..but buyers took in a flick..
difficult stock..
gm mok sir..
why u want to overtake rm here..
u need 2 buy a morning ferrari(safari) 2 do it
Manu,
In the future it should see 396 today.
shai..
i must cvr before Ril agm ..???
RIIL 1070 up 6 % today
Manu,
It is difficult to react to news flow...
Very often, it is not the news, but the market's reaction to the news that matters.
I can't say..
Shai,
Can you post the MP chart with action for past few days?
Thanks!
Girish
we have reacted again from 5297 today.
Chart uploaded.
Shai
re your yesterday's comment to mok when you referred back to april data for an important level.
My question is - do you consider only POC values from the deep history or VAH and VAL from the distant past are also taken into account for deciding important levels?
regards.
RM,
POC is most important as it defines value for the day, the point where buyers/ sellers agree on price.
Once you get there, you look at previous price reaction from that level.
Finally as market trades at that level you look at responsive activity in the current TF.
Thanks Shai!
OK I have one bit of information that I consider as bad news.
Yesterday Nifty reached the highest point of this series "so far" but Nifty Open Interest reduced by 3% - I consider this as bad because on strength there should OI Increase.
Also there was an equal amount of contracts rolloed over to next month.
Any comments?
Gm SHAI BSE n NSE index have taken out yesterdays high, but NF n BN are yet to? any views on it?
Girish,
very good info.
Profile says that we are treading dangerous waters here, which have long term sellers in the range of the next 70 points.
We may go up in the hourly to 5350 levels, but in the daily TF the long termers will start getting aggresive here.
So I maintain be cautiously long here.
How many people here trade futures?
---
Just want to know.
I've traded Maruti twice today between value low and POC ?
Shai,
I am expecting a rotation to yesterday's POC or at least VAH sometime - Can't say whether it will come after hitting 5310 or 5330. These are the two important reversal levels I remember from April/May action.
Market is supreme. Need to respect the tape!
-Girish
Sir,
Stock futures ?
I am only with Nifty
Shai I trade only Nf
Rest all in cash.
I short on Nf @ 5295 Sl now 5291 hope get 5260 today
Yt U say abt my trade?
shai
i invest in stock,
trade only NF and BNF,
nf n bn only SHAI
yes stock futures.
& Nf Now @ 5280 some news comes I think regarding 2 bro
i trade only nf and bnf.
shai ..i m into stock fut and its hedges
5266 from the morning post still holding.
sir what was yesterday poc and VAH?
hi cration
given at the top of this page
"Here are the value areas :
Nifty= 5258-5226-5206
Bank Nifty = 9548-9514-9479."
@ manu, will get that ferari, or will auto comment prev night itself, if its possible :)
sir nifty near vah .shall i book profit now?
@mok
Waking up at 0500 is a simpler and less expensive choice. :)
Creation,
If your entry is good keep tsl at 5277
yes sir i will .shorted nfty at 5290.thanx
sir i will be thanful if u answer my this question ,when u r free (after market hour).
yesterday VAh,poc etc was 5255-5226-5206..then sir how u calculated 5277 as tsl?
where's girish?
Got your VAH..
Kudos!!
Now POC if we do not get above 77.
Maruti...80 % rule done.
VAH to VAL.
thats nice 80% practicals :)
Thanks Shai - sometimes instincts work :)
The sad part is I booked my short too early! Anyway step-by-step learning.
Good instinct and good analysis is a potent combination !
Always back yourself!
rotation btw 66 and 76.
Next move will shape up here.
5252 spot pe nazar....
New chart.
sensex moving in tandem with europe
can somebody help me here??
I have Nifty 5100 Put @ Rs.22 and now its down to Rs.7...please suggest that should i move out or wait till next week...
vj said...
5252 spot pe nazar....
June 18, 2010 12:45 PM
sorry power cut, 5254 spot low :)
I see people are happy to help here...can somebody please help me too ...
Nikhil,
your put is OTM and a lottery ticket.. and you will lose more value in the next one hour as premiums will get adjusted for the weekend.
I suggest you take what you get.
(There is a chance we may see levels around 5100, but the best chance is with a nearer strike).
If we see levels of 5100 then till what level can this PUT reach ??
shai..
lvls of 5100 ths expiry..
r u biased on shrt side..
thnx i rvrsd and booked @396 ..
Dear Shai, thaks for your help...If we see levels of 5100 then till what level can this PUT reach ??
Nikhil,
Your profit starts when nifty goes below 5078 as time premium of which very negligible amt is left will vanish entirely by monday.
Shai, so should i move out of this and buy 5200 PUT to recover some losses ?? Please advice
Hi Shai & Friends,
Only a friday member.Following doubts are for study...not trading.
Shai...what are today's LEVELS
As per my system...it is NS: VAH:5247 VAL:5214
But couldn't get POC.How can I get it. whether values I got are correct ?
shai
no reply
Yes I am a bit short not very.
But will see market action on Monday and do some analysis over the weekend for next thursday.
Nikhil,
I do not suggest buying options so close to the weekend on front month strikes. Your better bet will be Monday after 10.00.
Sorry Dear.. I missed POC now I got but want to confirm as Ilango's site is showing diff values. NS: VAH=5247 POC=5231 VAL=5214 Are values I got for Nifty Spot coreect ?
yes Amirishali,
Your values are right.
@ amirish
just nifty MP is on NF values :)
Thanks Shai for all your help..i really appreciate it..
manu,
U shorted HCL at 396 ?
Good trade.
shai..
hcl ws not my call ..u told me u c at 396..i rvrsd the shrts carried and cvrd at 396..
just trying my hand with ur luck..
will study and do next time..
shai
cn u gv views on unitech intra..
Manu,
I'll try.
I am not very stock specific, I will trade anything on a chart I understand.
@ manu
:) that was a good one:
"just trying my hand with ur luck.."
sorry..
i m a bit suspicious abt it as sellers are erasing
Thanks Shai & mok..but my alues for NF: VAH=5257 POC=5225 VAL=5206 which were also not matching so I post my querry for confirmation.
Now Shai has confirmed my NS values so I'm bit confident..Thanks again.
mok..
its true..i didnt apply my 1 % of brain it and
still saved my pocket:)
shai is good
right manu, shai approach is very unique and nice
:)
thanks amirish, some parameters could be.
i am using this afl but i get slightly different numbers by about 0.05%, and different Tframes.
shai pointed out the better charter is the MarketDellta and QuoteTracker with Tickdata
[of possibley eSignal quality]
i think we should discuss this on MPclass post also for later reading to every interested person.
:)
shai waiting
Chart Updated.
------
Manu waiting for unitech?
Hang on..
Manu,
Unitech is directionless for the moment.
There is a seller at 71.5/71 and lower supports at 68.5/69.
Trade this range.
we'll end near the lows
Hi Shai,
You said earlier of tracking a few beta stocks. One that quite fits the bill is IFCI.
Would yo like to comment on its price pattern & action.
Thanks.
Shree.
Sorry dears for disturbing you in betn.
Shree,
The intention was to have an intraview or 2-3 sessions view, through way of futures.
Let's see. I 'll look at IFCI.
Thanks.
5258 below the ref levels of 5266 and 71.
POC at 5273.
Interesting alignment.
Catch you guys later!
bye shai,
bye friends,
no amirish, you brought out valid points :)
i am sitting with it weekend to see the variations
hi shai,
using your AFL, but may be the data, always some 0.05%
variation,
yesterday it was on higher side too.
other than the points you told reg charting softeware and datafeed, i am a bit confused on the variations.
will send you charts and results sometime later.
you at your leisure , explain why
tnaks for everything bye
:)
Bye Shai, have a great weekend!
Shai,
Thanks for the nice intraday charts and explanation!
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