Well we did operate in the range of 5276-5380 projected by the Vix and we did close above 5300, but the final close of 5320 fell far short of the projected 5380 top of the range we wanted.
That is the first time in 4 months that we have fallen short of the mark. The previous three attempts have been +/- 10 points off the mark.
For what lies ahead, let's look at the charts :
The chart is that of the Nifty Future ( July) for the first four days of the week.
This week the market has auctioned and tried to create value in a region not seen in this expiry. Right from the gap-up this Monday to the close today we traded in new territory for the series except for a few minutes this afternoon.
The yellow arrows show that buyers and sellers have both tried to gain the upper hand with little success. The zone remains 5297-5377 with buyers in the bottom half and sellers in the top half.
Even from today's profile, one can see the seller appearing when buyers were not able to drive prices a lot higher than yesterday's close.
We call such activity a bracket in Market Profile.
Brackets usually happen at the end of a trend or at the beginning of one and are very easy to trade.70 % of the time markets trade in brackets and we should get used to them. On a longer time frame this entire year so far has been a big bracket and we do not seem to be getting out of it soon.
P.S:
The trend is never your friend because history shows that we trend only 30% of the time.
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4 comments:
US markets have bounced off 1069.5. Currently at 1080.
Viren had called for 1070 yesterday.
HI SHAI,
Sorry to bother you with my silly q but this morning also u were mentioning about 1083 and Viren had asked to watch out for 1070.. and now too u are mentioning abt it ...can u please expalin what this is and where one finds it?...thanks in advance
Hi Shai... also will u be please kind and tell me in which software do u make these charts as the one shown above...and from which site i can get it...thanks again
Arvinder,
We were referring to the SPX future levels in the US mkts. Both Viren and myself follow the larger SPX instead of the Dow as it is a bigger reflection of the market there.
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New post done.
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