Friday, June 11, 2010

Profile Analysis

I hope regular visitors to the blog are getting an idea of how market profile is helping us to analyze the turns of the market and keeping us ahead in our assessment of order flow. I can think of no better example than the post made here yesterday which prevented us from going overboard with the many baby bulls who were talking 5200 today!

Today was a neutral day, good auction day which showed that buyers/ sellers were waiting for new information for the market's next move. We got two levels for our trading 5082/92 and 5127/37 which will help us in our profile analysis on Monday.

Let's look deeper into what the profile picture is telling us not just for Monday, but also the rest of the week and this expiry.



The chart is a 30 min profile of the Nifty future showing the low from the 25th of May when we had 4786 till today. I had mentioned yesterday that the value had not kept up with price, but if you see on the top right we had a balanced profile today with a close at the point of control, indicating that buyers and sellers agreed on price today and the market is in a state of balance and awaiting new information.There is lots the market can react to over the weekend, but if it does not find anything significant then we will open on Monday right here at 5113.

Another chart I want to put up is the weekly profile :



The blue dotted regions are the weekly profiles. The "b" shape shows you how shorts created early in the week/ last week were covered and the market moved higher.The base of the previous week is also a lot more heavier and the cumulative profile in pink shows the importance of this region between 4940 and 5040 as an important support region for the market going forward.There has been good value created in this zone.

I'll like to finish with the developing profile chart for this expiry. We had a look at this chart last here

Please understand that this is a developing chart and the final values can change




So far value is being created within the previous month's value.

13 comments:

subrat said...

shai yr analysis about profile is very good,thanks for yr selfless effort.happy weekend and good night

mo h said...

hi shai,
you are tirelessly working on MP, and OI. Its going to make a wonderful combination. am looking forward to this months workout from you on expiry.
lastmonth the 5000 looked long way up, but it found its way to show in your MPchart and OItable
... :)
have a nice weekend,

Shai said...

ES futures closed above our 1083 yesterday.

Still risky but looks like the path to 1147 is being cleared there. Expecting positive news like mergers and acquisitions to hit over the weekend there.Hopefully no bad news.

Taking a cue, Nifty should move to 5177. Let's see..

Happy weekend to all.

Murugan said...

Good afternoon sir,

Is it possible to post any 2 days trading with example sir? I learnt the basic sir, this will help me a lot.

Hope you post some 2-3 days day trading example sir.

:)

Thank You Sir,

Best regards,
Murugan

Shai said...

Murugan,

The example is in the chart above ( first chart ).

For an example, let's take a look at yesterday's short trade.

I was looking to short based on EOD analysis on Thursday as also the presence of the seller if you look at the profile in the middle.

When prices reached there in the morning, it was easy to spot the short as a seller was known to be present there.

The covering of the short could be at the open price (safer) or the beginning of the buying tail. We reached the beginning of the tail..

veer said...

Dear Shai,

Wonderful Lessons. By the way, I am not getting the profile chart the way it is shown here with colours and Nifty Values POC.VAh & VAL. Can you pls forward the AFL code that you are currently using so that I will get the chart as shown here.

ManishRT are going to stop free service of Data from 05/06/2010. Can you pls refer any other source.

Regards,

Veer

veer said...

sorry. It is from 15/06/2010.

Shai said...

Veer,

The afl is the same.

Use the toggle option in your parameters window.

Murugan said...

Very thanks for your reply sir.

If possible can you explain from that above chart any use of that Eighty Percentage rule in that chart ?

A small explanation of 3-4 days will be helpful sir.

Thank You sir,

best Regards,
Murugan

mo h said...

@ veer
on chart rightclick, choose parameters at the top of popup.
you got the choices there

and for Intra can try volumedigger.com utilities
for eod, volumedigger.com or getbhavcopy site utilities.

and, thanks, so far your info was so detailed on manish, :)
plz give similar info when you find the new sources too ... :)

veer said...

Dear Shai / Mok

Thanks.

Regards,

Veer

veer said...

Dear Mok,

I have found one link of free real time data feed. I will try tomorrow. The link is
http://www.marketcalls.in/2010/04/rtdf-free-real-time-data-feed-to-amibroker.html

Veer

mo h said...

hi veer,
great !
now after finding out about it, plz give the details here, veer, it will help many ..
:)