Good Morning all.
I'm just returning to my office after a weekend trip.
The market is giving us an open which is outside of value and range of friday.
There are large possibilities for a directional move in either direction.Quite simply the gap up is a buying tail, indicating the presence of buyers who want to take the market higher. But we also know that we are reaching zones of known supply brought in by intermediate term sellers.
Expect the market to auction here for a while.
I'll be back with some charts and updates...
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11.33
Often a question is raised on how to measure the strength or resistance of a particular level.
As you know, our levels posted here are completely price-volume based, ie, there are no trendlines, moving averages etc to measure them.So how do we know a particular level will hold or not.
The answer is always in the price reaction.
For example, the level of 5372 given as a resistance has held up so far. The high is 5372.45 and the reaction off that level has measured 10 points so far, which is average.
Now an inability to get a bigger reaction off 5372, i.e more than 10 points, will mean that the level will not hold.
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Monday, June 21, 2010
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30 comments:
Good Morning Shai!
gm all
Yuan is kicking the pants off the bears this morning.
New information in the market. Market has reacted positively from the open.
sir at what level nifty will expire ? shall i buy 5400 put at rs55 now..
GM Shai, plz tell wht range yr method givig for this expiry.So i can go for some lottery option.
Thanks
For intra-day if you are looking for a short trade, then this is the roadmap you should have :
a) see resistance at 5372 playing out.
b) break of 5344
c) break of 5317.
Nifty currently at 5365.
Caution : We are above value and buyers have been aggressive since morning.
Creation,
Market needs to confirm the sell trade.
Buyers are in control for the moment.
Shai Plz make it more clear
Sell below 5344 or
@ 5372
I am cofused
sell below 5244 is safer trade.
* below 5344
Shai Gm,
Views on expiry now....
Thanx.
Jitendra,
The morning gap has distorted the short term picture, as the open was out of range.
I will have to look at the close today to see where we stand for expiry.
Dear Shai, u still thinkin nifty is climbing wall of worries as u pointed out b4 few days that rise is mainly coming due to short covering according to MP.ppl update.
Thanks
Shorting Nifty here at 5369 with stop at 5382, looking at 5325.
Only for aggressive traders.
I would advise everyone to be extremely cautious from here on.The market is way overheated and the slightest bit of bad news from the west can cause a correction to take place which in my opinion is healthy and would provide a good buying opportunity....Infact, this market reminds me of the time when stocks shot up post budget only to be knocked down like 9 pins once eurozone problems surfaced....Correction will also come in the form of RBI's rate hike.
J,
When is the RBI's rate decision?
Shai,
According to some sources it could come as early as this friday..a staggered approach might be taken..wherein there is a small rate hike now and another rate hike in July during the policy meet...rate hikes are usually done on fridays after market hours...having said that, JP Morgan is saying that the rate hike will come out only in July and there wont be anything before that. Conflicting views, and very confusing to say the least. There are a number of data points to be released in the US this week and all of them have a negative consensus...so that might provide the impetus for correction as well
Cool, J.
Noted.
Dear Shai, it is holding 5360...plz update.
Thanks
should give 5353 at least now.
Bring stop to 5377. Only 8 points of risk.
export oriented commodity stocks will be the biggest beneficiaries of the yuan decision.
Metals and mining doing well.
Sesa up 9%, hindalco up 6%, tata steel up 6 %.
Revised TSL at 5377 taken.
Lost 8 points in the trade.
Trade over.
Shai,
I feel Rollovers will trigger intraday corrections tomorrow or day after.
May be previous VAH (not sure what it was) or 5300-5310 could be revisited. I somehow resisted the temptation to short the entire day by reading some Soccer / Asia Cup articles!
Girish,
The 'P' shape developing should mean a move to 5310 tomorrow.Let's see what the close and the open of tomorrow is.
Trade facilitation has not been good at all in the past 4 hours.
From a risk-reward perspective, only a short made sense.Unfortunately it didn't work out.
Shai,
Totally agree with your assessment.
From Thursday/Friday's action (5297 high in NF almost reached both days) I am guessing that we may get close to today's high tomorrow before correcting.
As you said lets see how it closes today and open's tomorrow.
Nifty 5351 now.
Just one of those days..
Took out our revised stop at 5377 by 0.55 paise and went on to hit 5353.
Bye all.
Catch you later!
Bye Shai!
dear Shai, where i can see the Vix, so that i can calculate expiry range myself from yr method.
Thanks
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