This morning we have moved between 5293 and 5319.
On the larger weekly timeframe, Nifty has managed to negotiate well the "wall of worries" mentioned 2 fridays' back.
So though we have had supply come in at higher levels, value has been created higher on the weekly.
Besides 5320, we have 5345 and 5367 to watch out for during this week. A close above 5367 will be extremely good for the buyers. (It is amazing how 5367 is showing up in other analysis now. We've had this level from last tuesday).
On the downside 5225 is the level to watch on the daily TF.
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Chart of NF showing a weekly cumulative profile. As you can see that value has been established higher, implying that buyers are still in control.
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12.42 pm.
Here is the chart of the spx futures also called ES.
The right hand side has a cumulative profile of the action.
As can be seen from the chart we are below the 1083 level which is a high value node on the chart.
A failure to overcome that level, points to more downside on that chart.
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31 comments:
Good Morning Shai & Viren!
RM,
Good morning.
Delayed by 2 hours today, but very much here!!
@Shai
Market was very calm all this time, I guess it did not want you to miss the fireworks. :)
RM,
Doubt if there will be any fireworks today.
Volumes have been under average so far, reflecting the rangebound conditions as well as the strong arguments on both sides to go up or down.
Max 5345 on higher side and 5271 on lower side.
Gm Shai & rm, BN lvls Shai?
VJ,
BN has bounced off from friday lows.
Below that it can see 9400 easily.
Max 9550-70 on the upside if it sustains above 9520.
Nifty Fut chart updated with weekly profiles.
ES futures chart updated.
Quick question for you MP experts -
In your experience, does the area with high vol tend to act as a magnet for prices - i.e, does it tend to pull prices to that level, or is it more of a resistance/support zone.
For ex, on your NF, the 5024 level seems to have some serious cumulative juice - does this tend to pull prices to that level over time -
I know in ES and Spooz options (as well as certain liquid stock options), the specialists at the CBOE tend to have settlement closer to or sometimes even at the level of greatest confluence of puts and calls - thus having to pay out the least amount of intrinsic value.
Thanks guys - great work as always!
Dear Shai,
Thanks for your reply regarding datafeed. Hope the investbulls data-feed will be sufficient for beginners for education purpose. Will it be tick data and whether we can backfill the tickdata?
With Regards
Sathya
Daruma,
We understand the market as an auction of prices, and price tends to gravitate towards regions where buyers & sellers perceive the biggest value, which shows up as the largest volume on charts.
As an example, in a typical auction, you will put more bids at a price where you feel you have the best value for the item.As price moves away from your best price, the participation of yourself and others will not be the same as before.
With spooz options, the concept of max pain brings out the settlement price.
We feel strongly through market profile, we will be able to define this max pain for the NF.
Sathya,
Invest bulls is good and I recommend it highly.
I think they give 1 min data with 2-3 months backfill.
Shai - thanks!
Market has just tested both limits set in the morning.
Still in range.
Daruma,
My pleasure. :) .
Market is very well balanced here.
Operating entirely, within friday's range, we either break-away in the last hour today or first hour tomorrow.
Don't rush in ..
trade the break of range..
OT...
if anybody interested in ilango's tech table for S&P, it is here...
http://safegamble.blogspot.com/2010/06/s-tech-table_28.html
-- gd
@ golfdude,
Understand the week low and the week high ema, but any particular reason you are looking at 5 ema only?
@shai,
I am following ilango sir's notes and experience. He thinks 5-EMA is very important especially on higher time frames.
-- gd
5338 n 9548 high
small sl shorts can b taken Shai? 5346 n 9572
Vj,
I think it gets to 5345.
Watching reliance very closely here.
fingers croosed
Reliance again struggling at the 1090 level where it met sellers on the day of the AGM.
The selling has not been aggressive and not worth a short for intra with 35 mins remaining in the day.
Let's see how it opens tomorrow.Good chances that it will fall again from here.
High of the day : 5345
We are above 5320, but below 5345 mentioned in the morning.
Further up we have 5367.
Bank Nifty is looking weak. Still below 9572.
We also have a good level to watch in reliance.
Overall, I feel we are adequately equipped to tackle the turns of the market this week.
See you later.
Bye Shai!
superb views Shai. bi tc
"As can be seen from the chart we are below the 1083 level which is a high value node on the chart.
A failure to overcome that level, points to more downside on that chart"
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based on action so far, I highly doubt whether the level will be overcome and looks like a move to 1050 is underway.
Implications for India market-- No new highs coming.
GM Shai,
Hi! This is Sandy. Can you please provide me the link to find out the Nifty Put / Call data with Vol, Open Interest and Implied Volatility. This will be useful to calculate the expiry day closing/daily closing value. Thanking you in anticipation. I have tried in nseindia.com but couldn't find data with IV's.
Sandy,
Try myfno.com.
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