Regular readers of this blog may be familiar with a calculation I make on Nifty expiry, every expiry day. If you are not familiar then I suggest you read this post right here before going further.
Well Manu had requested for a projection as to how nifty would end up tomorrow.
Based on the excel calculations in the post above the range works out to 4991 on the higher side and 4825 on the lower side.
Now for the open interest tables :
It's self expanatory you can see a clear movement in the smart money towards the 5000 strike.
I have also put up the open Interst for the month of June just to back up the claim.
So are we looking at an expiry closer towards 5000 in the range 4880-4995.
Well that's what the charts above seem to tell. They have been right for the past three months, off by only 5-15 points.
So an expiry at 4980-4995 is predicted.
Just when I thought I'll close the post, I got a hunch about checking the above data through market profile.
So here goes :
The blue lines represent the value area of the month.
The chart is a 60 min profile chart of the Nifty Future for the May Expiry starting from the friday of last month up upto today.
As you can see the largest volume has occured at 5004 for this expiry.
I'm going to shut right here and be back tomorrow with the same chart.
Something very interesting just happened.
All the best for tomorrow.
Shai.
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10 comments:
Very Useful post before the expiry day..
For a low risk try shall we enter 4900 May call ? Today it close at 33, investment at Rs.1,650. IF expiry around 4985-4995 we get a 3 fold return. Is it a good choice ? please guide us..
sara
That sounds really interesting and a good tool.Good work guys!.Just struck me that we had a big cut in expiry week in January.Can you please check whether it works well in january also.
Shai..
thnx ..amazing work..all the time i thought it was 5019 than 5004..Vol.
u must have elobrated it earlier..:(
"""Something very interesting just happened."""
do explain in d morning:)
hi shai,
this is a very unique presentation,
this site is vertically specialized,
thanks manu for bringing it out.
so it is 5000 on both counts.
and, the Dow is diving into korean sea ...
hi shai ...its intresting ....i am eagerly looking for thursdays closing>>
nifty around 4920 is expected for expiry
Dear Shai,
U R simply Great. As per your NIFTY Expiry predictions, I doubled money in 49OO CE!
Many Thanks!
Ravi
UR PREDICTION WAS JUST GREAT...ALTHOUGH I JUST OBSERVED...CAN U ALSO TELL IF NIFTY IS HEADING UP OR IS IT GOING TO COME BACK TO 4800 LEVELS SOON AGAIN...CAN WE SHORT NIFTY AT 5050 LEVELS?...THANKS
Hats Off Dear !!!
Shai..ur good observer with sound knowledge back up...gr8 work.
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