Friday, May 28, 2010

Estimates for 28th May

5065 was the level we had mentioned one week back where the intermediate seller had showed up and managed to take the market all the way to 4785 levels.This was the action on May the 19th and documented here.

The gap down from this level, will be matched up with a gap up.

But need to see this level resolve for further direction.

5065 is on watch. We will see rotation at this level today.

-----------------------------------------------------

10.13

Description : short Nifty June
Price : 5032
Sl : 5065
Target : 4990.

---------------------

10.28

@ All,

I have modified the comment settings to include your ID when you post comments. Please comment with a user name. I don't want to be talking to several anons, without knowing one from the other.

Please oblige for the mutual benefit of all.

----------------------------------

10.42

Take some profits off the table here at 4999.

keep Sl for remaining at 5020.

--------------------------

10.47

We were targeting 4990, we have got 4996 so far.

The seller has shown his hand from the morning and his inclination to defend his territory near 5065. It's now upto the buyers to stand up.

5020 and 5035/45 are some short term reference points for the bulls.Need to climb above them.

This will be a volatile 60 point range and a battle zone. so trade quickly and keep booking profits when you see them.

-----------------------------------------------------------

11.05

Posting an intra chart of Nifty spot 30 mins. The shaded blue is the value areas.



The shaded blue areas are the value areas.

Price above value infers that buyers are in control. However on  a longer term chart, you can see the seller's footsteps, with the succession of value being driven lower.

The buyers have gotten stronger recently. Three value areas showing up move.

-------------------------------

11.28.

Trailing stop at 5020 taken. make an exit.

---------------------

12.12.

Interesting action so far.

Sellers ( or bears in your terminology ) have tried their hand at a lower range extension and failed.

Now Buyers will make an attempt.

5035/ 5045 will be short term reference lines above which is the crucial 5065.

Above that there may be a slight pause at 5092, beyond which we will get 5172 easily.

On the downside 4990 is first and then yesterday's 4967/ 4952 which should provide support for the market.

Trade accordingly.

-------------------------------

1.11

No resolution yet in the day time-frame.

Buyers have not managed to take the initiative.

Markets trading between 5005 and 5025. We'll wait.

-----------------------------------

3.10

I know it's been a tiring day of trade today, with no clear indications of short-term direction.

Sometimes the market goes through these kind of days digesting information.

We just have to wait and see it resolve and base our decisions on the message the market gives us.

Let's not be compulsive traders and trade just because the market is open.We will have plenty of good set-ups in the coming days on both sides with risk-reward ratios favoring our style of trading.

Today's session has been a neutral day with range extension on either side which failed.

Bias is divided and the market will give us fresh inputs on Monday.

We have our levels and we will react accordingly.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

59 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi...i am long in nifty futures..at what level one should exit??..thnx..

manu said...

Shai

Gm..it ws just tht i ws nt able 2 c n mobile very clearly..but nw i m used too..but like new bloggers" mobile oil" Ravi will have prblm:)

Rest i m still confused fr 5004 ..sjld i keep Sl fr all longs..


and man which team u r with ths world cup..lets bet

Shai said...

Long from what point ?

And what is your timeframe for the trade?

Anonymous said...

bought @ 4995 yesterday....jun series

Shai said...

Not a good entry point.

I'll suggest exit and enter only if it sustains above 5066.

Anonymous said...

do u think..nifty will fall down??

Anonymous said...

shoul i exit right now or wait for FTSE to open??

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai,
Hope we will earn again today with U
YesterdayU ask how many people earn
i earn nearly 115 points.
Booked out in tbhe end not taking any overnight risk

ravi said...

hai shai,
i am not not yet recovered from yesterdays ur super duper expiry prediction. NOw i am trying to catch u without delay!. and i also stopped my TA's recommendation ...thats good to my health..by ravi

r m said...

Hi Shai,

All levels discussed here are Nifty Futures?

Shai said...

RM,

Yes they are all future levels, though I'm thinking of shifting to spot levels now for today, as the discount is outrageous !!

Shai said...

Anon,

I asked you to exit becuase the seller has shown his inclination at this level before.

Alternatively if you want to hold hold with a Stop below 4990 spot.

r m said...

@Shai
If this is outrageous then what about banknifty? :)

ac said...

HI Shai... I bought a 5000 put this morning at 126 ...it went upto 133 but now i am in loss...should i wait or book loss...

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Do you also have an opinion on stock-specific action..?
Would you advise shorting or buying UCO Bank..?

Anonymous said...

Hi Shai....I am short in future since 5060 levels this morning...will nifty come down or move up?

ravi said...

hi all, i have a request..i think its better to keep silence here, and shai will give some tips when there is a oppertunity. i mean dont ask him can i buy, can i sell , what to do ...like that ...

mojib said...

Shai sir I have tried to paste mp note the way u said in amibroker but chart is not showing there comes edit formula as a message plz tell me what i should do to get chart

madhu said...

ur lvls in nifty are spot or fut?

Shai said...

Madhu,

All fut unless indicated otherwise.

Shai said...

Mojib,

The afl is fine and working for all of us here.

Please delete your file and re-install.

manu said...

shai 5003..book r wait

mojib said...

sir i paste mp notepad in formula editor then save it their then drag to chart window but still chart not showing plz tell me whole ptocess and also tell me how to bring chart in blank window of amibroker

Shai said...

Manu,

Book some.

mo h said...

hi shai

hi mojib,
why not save the file as MPshai.AFL
as ms text file.
and, copy the file in amibroker folder > format> custom folder.
then start ami
it will show up in chart custom indicator afl list.
double click

ravi said...

shai, i think we will get ur reco through gmail if u post the reco in COMMENTS column. i hope we have catch it even through mobile with gprs by the link http://gmail.com

Shai said...

mojib,

Once u paste the formula in editor and save to close, open a blank chart and add price to it. Next drag this formula to it and you are set !!

manu said...

thnx

mojib said...

sysntac error ,probably missing semicolonat the end of the previous line , use edit formula to correct error ,Sir i am getting this message when I tried it

mo h said...

mujib,
consider redoing the process fresh from beginning,
thats a perfect working afl

mojib said...

plz give me link once more i tried to download then I do whole process

subrat said...

dear shai,is it safe to buy above 5065nf?

r m said...

Wow! That AFL works like magic. Previously i tried the 'volume at price' and 'volume at price multi' indicators from amibroker menu. But they were not even one tenth as good.
Thanks Shai & mok. :)

mo h said...

RM,
shai has finetuned it too,,, the rresult shows,

Vtrender said...

Thanks Mok.

I posted the same in the forum window under "market profile classroom'.

------------------
RM,

Credit for the afl goes to a certain "kaka" . I have never met him, but somebody forwarded it to me mentioning that I thank him for every winning trade from the afl. You do the same. :)

mojib said...

mok do u have team viewer if yes then plz do it for me

mo h said...

kaka AFLs [like our karhik] are famous, but we should thank you for being the medium to get it to us.

r m said...

A big thanks to "kaka". Will add more (thanks) when i begin earning profits from it. :)

mo h said...

mojib
close ami
check if the AFL downloaded is already having the extension .afl
copy this file to programfiles >amibroker >formula >custom
start ami
check if your ami already has data by trying out some default afl in it
if no, then see if you have data, and do that first.
then if yes,
look for MPonline under custom under chart under left top panel of ami
double click.

even if it takes time, better you do it yourself,
since you will hav to handle other afl later.
no need to hurry mojib

mojib said...

if u r free then plz do it for me i have tried all that but chart not showing i dont what the problem in it

Shai said...

Mojib,

get in touch with support at amibroker.They are helpful and are for such problems as yours.

I am sure they will solve it in mins.

Shai said...

Subrat,

keeping the larger picture in mind, i still will be tentative till 5092, but yes above that we will get 5172 odd very quickly.

mo h said...

hi guys, even if there is no trade to take, keep studying the MP pattern as it develops ...

mojib said...

mok do u have team viewer

mo h said...

mujib, my virus scanner objects teamviewer long bak and i dont use it.

Shai said...

Sara,

Thanks.

Corrected.

Deepak said...

Dear Shai - i was watching buy order of nifty futures and saw 25 minutes back an BUY order of 74000 shares around 5010 - regards Deepak

Shai said...

Excellent obs deepak,

keep noting down the levels and the qty.

Unknown said...

can i go long at dis level??

Shai said...

No Mona.

Let 5065 resolve.

Unknown said...

okay..tnx..shai..

r m said...

Thanks Shai, have a great weekend. :)

Shai said...

RM,

U too.Have a great one!

fundooguysus said...

dear shai,
im short at 5050
can i take it for monday.
or square off

Shai said...

Dr saurabh,

MP gives today a neutral view with an open-close which has to be same.

I suggest you book partially some of what u have and take a fresh call on Monday.

Stay light for action on Monday

mo h said...

shai,
was a good day,
better no trade than enter doubtful trade :)

may i suggest taking a cue from ravi:

your post update, also the updated matter alone can be put in as your comment also.

benefit:
post has continuity while email or mobile comment accessor has post update also

have a nice weekend,
will reply your mail over weekend
all the best
mok

subrat said...

thanks shai for yr selfless effort,keep it up.yr levels r superb.have a nice weekend

Shai said...

subrat,

My pleasure.

Have a great weekend.

-------------------------

Wish all a happy weekend too. Stay safe.

-----

ravi said...

thanks mok for the follow up..i feel paste the recom in commnet box will better !