Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Estimates for 1st June

Welcome all to the first trading day of a new month. Our new series of June is also a day old !

What kind of a trading day we saw yesterday : a neutral day, which gives no forward implications.A neutral day can also close at one of the day extremes.

Coming to today's action, I had a feeling in my last post yesterday that the last hour an hour action was designed to catch some technical analysts on the wrong foot. That trick does not work with the student of profile.

We may see a narrow range again in the morning session and I'm expecting this to break only in the second session of the day.

Trade well !

-------------------------

9.55

Value area low is 5022 and Value area high is 5051.Point of control is 5037.

Market is bound btw these levels, so to speak.

--------------------------------

11.00

I want to add 2 more ref levels besides the 5004 and the 5065 levels given.

These are 4990 and 5079. All NF.

These represent the outer ranges of the short term bracket, we currently find ourselves in.

-----------------

11.50

Here is a price profile chart of the Nifty future for the past 4 sessions.

As you can see, Nifty is currently establishing value in the lower part of yesterday's profile.

The balance of the profile shows the absence of short/ inter mediate term players from the market, who are letting the market churn to negotiate value.

However if you look further, you can see tell-tale signs of selling near our 5065 levels.

This along with the fact that we are moving value downwards, leads me to believe that we will possibly move south towards 4955-4967 levels, where there may be a re-negotiation of value.

If I am right about this, then the market should not get above 5078 NF.

-------------------

12.35

Trade Alert : sell Bank Nifty
Cost : 9164
Sl : 9200
Target : 9087.

----------------

12.55

Bank Nifty at 9087.

Book out.

---------------------

13.23

We are already at the 4955-4967 levels projected in the chart at 11.50.

I chose to go with the Bank Nifty sell, rather than Nifty but it was the same trade.

Watch for buyers to step up here and rebuild value.

I will post updated chart later.

--------------------------------------

84 comments:

r m said...

Good Morning Shai!

Unknown said...

gud morning..SHAI..:-)

Shai said...

GM RM, GM Mona,

@ Mona,

Hope you had a good short trade yesterday.

manu said...

gm pa ji

Unknown said...

yess..shai..tnx a lot..:-)

ravi said...

goodmorning shai

rahul said...

good morning shai

mo h said...

good morning shai, RM, mona, manu, ravi, rahul ...

INDITRADER said...

testing

Shai said...

GM All.

Musti,

What r u testing ? :) .

ravi said...

musti,,,whats the problem...i am facing non updating of mail..

ravi said...

hi mok... goodmorning

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai ,
I post twice but my coment not published,
so i test once more.
Hope we all have have a wonderfull trading month

Sukanya said...

GM Shai and all!

mo h said...

good morning ravi,
hi musti, could be delay in transmission posting,
good morning pisreport

Girish Desai said...

Thanks for providing the quote source Shai. I hope there's a cheaper alternative as esignal is out of reach of small/part-time traders like me.

sara said...

Girish..
Investbulls offer RT data for amibroker at Rs.500/- try for a month then decide.I am planning to subscribe once i get good knowledge in MP.

INDITRADER said...

Shai U mean to say short below 5022 Nf
Long above 5051 Nf.
I am pretainig correct?

Shai said...

I like Musti's attitude. Always looking for a trade. :).

Technically u are right. But see below and above there are imp ref levels..

Like 5065 NF and 5004 NF.So trade small and quickly till it resolves.

Girish Desai said...

Thanks for the info Sara! I am definitely going to give it a try.

manu said...

mok
query at ourjustnifty????

mo h said...

manu,
assortz will sort it out. he may be busy, lets wait ...

INDITRADER said...

Thx shai
I do quit opposit
Buy @ 5030Nf
with S&R 5022
Is It ok?

r m said...

Last week a blogger was facing problem in applying the MP.afl to his charts in amibroker - it was resulting in the candles contracting to one single line. I don't know why it happens but have noticed that it happens when there is only today's data in amibroker. The easy solution is to have at least two days of intraday data.

veer said...

Dear All,

The free real time data fro Amibroker you can try at this link
http://www.marketcalls.in/2010/03/manshirt-setup-free-realtime-datafeed-for-amibroker.html.

It is free

Regards,

Veer

mo h said...

@ veer,
I tried locating that ManishRT and the 4shared link says no file...
Went to his yahoo group, but could not find the link ...
Have you got a working link to it ?

and, i also read in his group that he constantly keeps revising version with short validity, that one keeps loading the file, any idea ?
thanks.

Shai said...

Thanks Veer.

That's very helpful.

mo h said...

@ veer, because i search for sources for data, i need info on ManishRT.

sara said...

Veer its offer only Cash scrip and nifty spot not for Future, with data from yahoo or google .Some time data feed miss due to yahoo. Better to go with Paid one for RT.

mo h said...

@ veer, this is the manish permanant link given by rajendran marketcalls
http://www.4shared.com/file/klWZTmsh/ManshiRT-1001-03May2010.html
it says no file :(

@ sara, manishRT is also supposed to be a link to trade broker terminals, from where we may take futures also, subject to my prev post hesitations on manish why its not freely linked.

sara said...

I am having Mansi RT link Latest one dated 23rd May. If any of you want i will give the link

Sukanya said...

@mok, i also use manshirt in AB (old version of ab 4.8), you join in manshirt yahoo group, they update the version and give link there. also have enough read me and how to setup stuff there.

sara said...

Mok
That also i was tried with my Trader terminal of India infoline.Its not able to backfill y.day data

mo h said...

sara,
yes plz, i wish to try this manishRT, plz give the link here.

mo h said...

Pisreport,
if you & sara have already tried, and found limitations, then better i do not have to.
i thought of extracting from odin & tradetiger. I think its better for me not to load another DLL into the system and risk for nothing.
Thnks both.

sara said...

http://www.4shared.com/file/zFW3_lJ7/ManshiRT-1003-23-May-2010.html

Sukanya said...

http://www.4shared.com/file/zFW3_lJ7/ManshiRT-1003-23-May-2010.html <..... latest version on ManshiRT 1.0.0.3

assortZ said...

hi everyone

mo h said...

wow, fantastic, both sara pisreport,
thanks,
i will download it while the link works, and see if its worth the salt.
meanwhile, when time permits plz post your thotghts on this, as well further future data possibilities.

i consider the investbull or truedata or mdi pay data also.

sara said...

Mok
If you trade in Sharekhan trade tiger they give one video for backfill.
If you want try check this youtube link
Trade Tiger backfill
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyBMhYU3kF4

mo h said...

sara
sure thanks,will do EOD
thanks really.

Girish Desai said...

Veer,

Just checked the link you posted. I wonder if its got futures quotes too? I have Quotetracker paid version which gives MP type of Indicator (Volume by Price) but its only for cash market. No futures.

Shai said...

Girish,

In QT you have to purchase an esignal subsciption for the data feed of NSE.

That will give you volume profile charts.

-------------

I think Manshi will not give you futures as yahoo does not have futures yet.

Shai said...

Updated post with NF chart.

mo h said...

shai, thanks, the chart is so expressive,
we are in the shadow of yesterday, and narrowranged ... like yesterdays BNF, thanks.
what a mount.

sara said...

Sir,
The chart post by you have some value like 253/96, 185/35 in y.Days one. What it mean by?

Shai said...

Sara,

Those are called TPO counts in price profiles.

Let's not pay much attention to them now..we'll tackle it as a separate subject later.

sara said...

Ok sir.. always walk with your finger

Shai said...

Mok,

MP helped us to know that it will be a narrow range in the morning.

Check the morning post.

Now compare the knowledge we have with MP,with all the other frustrated traders out there...

Surely aren't we better off even in a sideways market..

mo h said...

Yes, shai, i referred to your morning post only, and reflected the happening now! great going ...
all the best.

veer said...

Dear All,

I have downloaded the new version and it is working - I have checked for the spot -Nift and Bank Nifty. To-day, night I will post the the link in this forum. Since I can not spare much time during my office hours, my visits will be limited. I will do it to-night.

Regards,

Veer

Shai said...

Trade Alert : sell Bank Nifty
Cost : 9164
Sl : 9200
Target : 9087.

mo h said...

@ veer,
plz post in the marketprofile classroom post, so that everyone will be benefitted even when they refer at a future time.
and, plz give your user opinion also, especially the pros & cons.

mo h said...

plz check shai, BNF call

Shai said...

Bank Nifty leading again...

5004 first port of call.

Shai said...

Book some profits near here at 9125.

40 points are good in a side-ways market

rajnish kumar said...

hello sir;
from where i can get volume profile charts

Shai said...

Bring Sl of remaining BN to cost at 9164.

Nifty needs to crack 5004 to get to 4990.5005 so far.

BN needs to crack 9120 for 9087.9115 so far.

mo h said...

MP charts are available in QuoteTracker, Amibroker, TradeStation, Sierra Chartts, MarketDelta, Ninja Traders, Meta, etc.

rajnish kumar said...

thanks mok.i will try quotetracker.

Shai said...

4992 so far. Good level to book shorts.

Shai said...

Bring Sl of BN to 9135. Play safe.

Shai said...

12.55

Bank Nifty at 9087.

Book out.

mo h said...

thanks shai,
booked.

Shai said...

else hold with SL at 9135.

Let's see if we get to 8976.

mo h said...

shai,, can we reenter at 9100 now for 8976 ?

Shai said...

No re-enter below 9076.

mo h said...

oh, ok, thanks shai,

Shai said...

Nah, scrap the thought.

Book out fully.

It will auction here for a while.

mo h said...

great workout, thanks shai, very fast move.
any focus forming on NF trying an attempt to yVaL 5025 ?

Sukanya said...

Shorted BNF @ 9075 for a tgt of 8976, what need to be SL?

mo h said...

pisreport,
shai had booked out completely. plz refer comment above.

Shai said...

Pis Report,

I decided against the second sell as we were close to our nifty 4954-4967 range gioven in the morning at 11.00.

Sukanya said...

@mok, but afterwards he wrote, re-enter bellow 9076

mo h said...

@ PR,
shai:
"Nah, scrap the thought.

Book out fully.

It will auction here for a while. "

Sukanya said...

Ok thank you, booked out at break even 9052

INDITRADER said...

Shai,Below 4955 can a short will be reconsider?
I am already out @ 5000 looking as per 4990 suport area.

Shai said...

Musti,

It's Ok, fall below 4990 was swift, even I didn't capitalize fully and let go of a profitable BN trade.But we will get more opportunities.No worry.

Yes. below 4950 you can short again.

INDITRADER said...

Thx shai for ur prompt reply.
Yesterday also U help me with my shorts at right time.

mo h said...

thanks shai, for NF opinion.

Operator said...

Dear Shai I m new follower of you I shorted nifty @ 5032 and covered @ 5005 thanks for this profit

Shai said...

New post topic with Updated chart.

Shai said...

http://vtrender.blogspot.com/2010/06/intraday-update.html

Unknown said...

hi..shai..tnx fo tdy's gain...shorted nifty n booked profit ...cn i short again...if yes at wt level??..tnx..:-)