Monday, January 31, 2011

Options/futures data for 28th Jan (EOD)

After getting somewhat acclimatized to my new job, I am trying to return to normalcy in my trading/Open Interest analysis. 


Summary:
1. The FEB series started off with a tank below quite a few familiar levels to traders for the last 6 months, making market pundits to go back and redraw trendlines, channels and even start looking at weekly and monthly averages! Options table though is not suggesting a lot of bearishness but we now live in the world of 20-20's where 20L calls can be written in a day and 20L puts can be covered in a single day. So anything can happen going forward.
2. Current range suggested by options data is 5700-5500, with 5700 still a a not-so-strong resistance but as mentioned above - this is just the first day of the series.
3. 5600 is the 50-50 level with negative bias due to the 20L calls added on Friday
4. 5500 is a reasonably good support as of now with almost 60L puts vs 16L calls.
5. PCR is at 1.31 - not suggesting a whole lot of bearishness but as the saying goes 'you can't judge a book by the cover'. We did have 1.4+ PCR on the very first day of Jan series and there was 600 point fall by the end of the series! 


Nifty Futures:
2.05 Cr OI up 5% (9.8L shares added) -- Mostly shorts?


Banknifty Futures:
10.8L OI up 5% (0.5L shares added) -- Around the same levels in August Banknifty OI was 30L+ and in September it was 24L. I believe that unless Open Interest increases in Banknifty, we might just be in for a consolidation phase for next few months in banks.


Most of the Open Interest action(addition) I have seen recently is in mid-cap banking space esp in stocks like YESBANK, ORIENTBANK, SYNDIBANK .. So may be some accumulation of these banks has started but gains are not reflected in price yet. 


Herd mentality:
There was a time a few months back when everyone was chasing the hot midcap stocks like RECLTD, PFC, PANTALOONR, EXIDEIND, KTKBANK, DHANBANK, PFC, OPTOCIRCUI, FORTIS ... Today they are reasonably priced but no takers for them!

2 comments:

r m said...

Thanks Girish!

Re "herd mentality", I guess those herds of wilderbeasts should be used as indicators. :)

Shai said...

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