Options/futures data for 14th Jan (EOD)

Summary:

1. Finally the car was pushed to the other side of 5700 and it was done with quite a prep till afternoon! The options table is now in a bit of confused state with still OI @5900/5800/5700 - all suggesting that its still not all over for the bulls. BUT one of the traders interviewed by Jack Schwager (the author of Stock Market Wizards) has said  “When a market makes a historic high, it is telling you something. No matter how many people tell you why the market shouldn’t be that high, or why nothing has changed, the mere fact that the price is at a new high tells you something has changed.” Applying the same thing here - 5700 (Nifty Fut) was such a big support for past 45 days - the mere fact that market broke that support is telling us that there is more to come!

2. 5800 is a weak resistance because you can call it almost a 50-50 level with 60L calls vs 49L puts. Also its interesting to note that there were no calls added @5800 on Friday! And some 5900CEs covered

3. 5700 is a weak support but the bias is clearly negative because of the almost 20L calls added on Friday.

4. 5600 is a strong support but bears are in @5600 too with 22L calls getting added on Friday @5600

5. PCR is now at 0.9 - never before seen level in last 5-6 months since I have started tracking!

Nifty Futures:

2.26Cr OI up 6.8% (14.6L shares added!) -- Looks a decent amount of shorts but if one views this in conjunction with 5600/5700 calls added, these might be covered calls too?

Banknifty Futures:

12.9L OI down 2% (0.3L shares cut) -- Some shorts covered. In fact BN has not had mostly OI reduction in last few days and its approaching July breakout point of 9900-10000. Effectively Banknifty is down 22% from its Diwali peak and several banks have even touched/gone below OCT 2009 peak. All I can say is risk-reward may not be in favour of shorts in Banknifty esp after almost 3000 points of fall in about 2 months. But market will always do what it wants to do ..