Nifty Feb Future

Often times a view which one holds at the start of a session can change as the market keeps sending out a message.

We walked into this expiry day, expecting a close around 5700 which was the fairest price for the series for both buyers and sellers. Also the Open Interest build -up at 5700 by writers of both the calls and puts was strong enough to justify the thought process for an amicable close.

Instead the market had other ideas and for the second time in two months we had a settlement at the extreme end of the series and in favor of the party who had dominated from the very beginning.



The daily chart above should not leave anybody in doubt on who had control through the series.The blue horizontal lines represent areas of new selling and should the buyers test them again, they will have sellers coming back at them with renewed energy.

But the question which stood out on an intra-day basis, was whether profile by itself suggested that we may end at the lows today?

It certainly did.

Have a look at this chart against the one I posted yesterday.



Two things stand out :

1) A selling tail at the open

2) An inability to auction above 5676-5688.Once 5676 was broken, the lows of the bracket were definitely at play.

For Tomorrow :

a) We wait and see if the market gets back in the bracket and if 5676 is tested.

b) Monitor the open to know whether today's late move was settlement only or has larger implications.Clues to watch would be whether Open is in value and range.

Sometimes what didn't happen has more implications than what actually occurred.