Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Options/futures data for 10th Jan (EOD)


Summary:
1. Looks like what we had yesterday was a 'realization candle' printed. By that I mean, when most participants start recognizing that 'may be the party is over'.  The party was already over from an options point of view on Friday and yesterday gave a confirmation. Yesterday morning I started out with a thought - sell on rallies in the range 5976-6020. I just forgot the fact that 'there may not be any rally' :) 
2. The range suggested by options now shifts one level down 5800-6000. 6000 now a resistance with 66L calls vs 39L puts
3. 5900 becomes the 50-50 level with negative bias. the pace of call writing is so furious that out of total OI of 54L @5900CEs, 44L have been written in 2 days!
4. 5800 now is the official support - but definitely shaky because of 32L 5800CEs written yesterday. The only solace for bulls is that 5800PEs didn't unwind - in fact there was 7L addition. 
5. Even 5700CEs writing has stared with bears opening the account with 10L call addition. But fortunately 5700PEs are also being written.
6. PCR has dipped further from 1.03 to 0.97 -- usually a level from where a technical bounce appears. Lets see if a bounce comes along today.


Nifty Futures:
2.04Cr - OI flat -- Shorts still not covering at all! Looks like they will be satisfied only when a 5550 will be printed on their screen.


Banknifty Futures:
13.9L OI down 5% -- All shorts added since expiry are covered! OI is now exactly same as it was on expiry day. Should expect a technical bounce today?


Banks Update:

  1. SBI: OI was down 3.7% yesterday with some shorts covering at lows. Overall SBI OI is up 40% since expiry. So shorts are very much alive. SBI is approaching 2500 - the OCT 2009 peak and breakout level last year. May be some buyers will come in here?
  2. ICICIBANK: OI has been less than 10% increased despite an almost 15% fall
  3. HDFCBANK: I had mentioned 2 days back that HDFCBANK could be the next target for sellers. And sellers were quick to listen and HDFCBANK is down 8% from that point!
  4. AXISBANK: Like ICICIBANK, AXISBANK OI is also not up a lot during this fall. 1235 is the last swing low for AXISBANK in Dec. If that is breached then expect another 40-50 point fall.
  5. YESBANK: Perhaps the most shorted bank in the fall! OI was up 77% from day the of expiry. Yesterday there was a hint of short closure. YESBAXNK is exactly @ the low of the 'stake sale day' in June. Will that biggest buyer step in today and at least try to defend it?

3 comments:

r m said...

Thanks Girish!

Shai said...

5809-5836-5877 & 10895-11016-11075 are the values for today

Shai said...

New Post.

Open House on friday the 14th.