Friday, June 4, 2010

Estimates for 4th June

Nifty has opened around 5090 levels. Not much change in sentiment from yesterday afternoon.

Watch for the response of buyers to selling activity in the 5103-5108 range. Similar levels in the bank nifty are 9295-9305.

On the downside levels would be 5078 and 5060-65

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10.30

Bank Nifty is above our reference level of 9310.I'm not sure of a long yet and am waiting for more cues from the market. Maybe a move above 9330 will tilt it for me..

Nifty is moving between 5072-5085. The selling has not become aggressive beyond the lower point.

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12.39

Long BN at 9345, Sl 9325, target 9405

-------

SL 9305

---

14.24

BN has not moved to expectation.

I suggest bringing SL to cost at 9345 or scratch out here at 9360 for a 15 point gain.

---------------------

15.23

Hope everyone had a good trading day today.

In the morning, we saw classical initiative activity by sellers to 5070 levels and a strong responsive action by buyers from that level which took the future to 5134.

We knew of the presence of a seller there.

However looking ahead to next week, the buying will be severely tested again at 5177-5217 region where an intermediate term seller has been known to sell.

We'll see next week, how it resolves.

Have a good weekend.

-----------------------------------------------

68 comments:

mo h said...

goodmorning shai, friends

r m said...

Good Morning Shai.

ravi said...

goodmorning shai..goodmorning mok..

mo h said...

hi goodmorning ravi, RM :)

Shai said...

Good Morning Mok, RM, Ravi.

ravi said...

mok yesterday i saw ur comment on bank nifty...thanks for that ...here continous power failure...cant attend blog

ravi said...

mok i mean about the margin

mo h said...

ravi, oh, i am happy to give info needed, :)

manu said...

gm shai..

viren still missing..
can u gv me unitech value areas with a TF of Expiry

Shai said...

Sellers are showing early dominance...

Buyers have to take out the upper levels mentioned and quickly...

Shai said...

manu,

U mean a monthly value area?

mo h said...

howz the tail on NF, RM,
now we are talking like zoology class
:)

r m said...

@mok
you mean buying tails around 5078?

r m said...

Quite long like langoor. :)

mo h said...

RM,
thats a good one :)

Shai said...

RM,

U surely must be watching a lot of them everyday :)

mo h said...

RM gives a systematic quiet approach :)

manu said...

sHAI..
YES MONTHLY

r m said...

@Shai
Yeah, on morning walk i come across many. Now they will remind me of market profile. :)
@mok
:)

manu said...

shai
yes monthly

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai,
In mornig post U give 2 levels one is 5078 which is voilated & Nf start trading below it.
Second is 5060 which is still hold.
Can take a short below 5060?

Shai said...

Manu,

Unitech fut, last expiry

72-78-84
cash,
71-77-83.

are u an investor in unitech?

manu said...

thnx shai..
trader in uni..positional..

Shai said...

Musti,

short below 5060 with stop above 5078.

A small piece of advise to you, don't trade the levels literally, look for price-vol conf and sustainability.Sometime markets go below ref levels just to take out stops.

Shai said...

@ Manu,

And u trade based on value?? ...just curious.

manu said...

shai

value adds 2 my study of beta..

Mp is a difficult study..sometimes above my head but viren,you and mok really help..

Shai said...

I was thinking about drawing a list of high beta stocks and monitoring them on the blog here.

What do you guys feel?

manu said...

i will the beneficiary :)

sara said...

Nice idea.. really helpful for positional traders

INDITRADER said...

Shai Yesterday U give buy call of Grasim
Now it rades @ 1776
Is still a buy?

Shai said...

Yes Musti.

More for a long term.

Profile picture shows a rebalance of value. Can move up from here.

INDITRADER said...

Thx Shai I just bought Grasim
Yesterday I place 3 times order but every time it rises.
Today I get 12 points lower than Yesterday

rajnish kumar said...

dear shai
how to get profile charts in quotetracker. i m not able to get nifty intraday charts.datasource is nseindia(free)

mo h said...

hi rajneesh,
Nifty Spot does not have volume,
for MP QTracker willlook for volume, or the indicator panel will not show you MP indicator

you need Intra NF data for good MP.

mo h said...

Hi Shai, nice idea to expand to few more beta stocks.
Will give an opportunity to learn how MP goes on them.
:)

arpitg345(gauresh) said...

Hi,

can positional shorts be taken in BN spot at 9450-9475...or should wait for more higher side..?

-arpit

Shai said...

Long BN at 9345, Sl 9325, target 9405

Shai said...

Sl keep to 9305.

Shai said...

arpitg,

It is difficult for me to spot intra-levels on spot prices as the spot is not traded.

Hwever, a quick look tells me that you want to short at these levels.

My view is in the post above.I was also looking at going long from yesterday.

bizagra said...

Dear Shai, which level to see now on upside in NF??
Thanks

Shai said...

Bizagra,

5125-5132 will be max for the day on upside.

mo h said...

shai, thanks a lot for your suggestions and advice.
Will try using it for positionals in that case.
Right now i am learning at your site the concepts, so not actually interpreting the MP myself
:)

MarketDelta may not be possible here, will think on QT, already using it on NS.

thanks shai :)

Shai said...

14.24

BN has not moved to expectation.

I suggest bringing SL to cost at 9345 or sctach out here at 9360 for a 15 point gain.

mo h said...

i squared BNF, thanks shai.

r m said...

Thanks Shai, my net went down so squared off at higher level. :)

Shai said...

You guys did well on that.

I did part-hold/ part square. Still half position open at cost. It jumped immediately after we squared.

Shai said...

I had made a note of 9310 as a buy point in my diary for BN today.

It is up 60 points from that point, but I never felt confident of the move except for that one point at 9345. Move seems very iffy..

mo h said...

this conservative going is also nice only , shai, reasonable takes while learning the nuances
:)

Shai said...

had mentioned this 5121-5132 as a reference level to part book longs yesterday.

Lots of supply coming here..

Alternatively, this upmove should have come yesterday...

r m said...

Your apprehensions were right, it is falling rapidly.

mo h said...

think NF is meeting the supply point as you say

Shai said...

Mok,

But if you look at the profile, it still shows buyers holding above sellers.

So it has an equal chance to get to our 5177 level.

mo h said...

shai,
:)
i am keeping it for 5182 5200
:)
the supply is an observation for present. the second mound is forming at 5124 and we seem to have a vast void above,
for quickness i filled only 15days intra, so not able to go for monthly profile now.
thanks shai

Shai said...

Hope all had a good session today.

See u later..

r m said...

Bye Shai, have a great day!

mo h said...

thanks shai, it was a good day,
bye :)
bye friends,

Shai said...

Logging in now at 7.46 IST to see the Dow down 200 points and some panic calls from some friends about our Nifty on Monday

Shai said...

Don't know yet whether the reaction is to the US jobs nos or the news from Hungary or both ??

...But one look at the chart tells me that buyers are back in control.Now 1085 ES.

What's the panic about??

mo h said...

shai,
its the europe, + the govt announcement.
down, yes, howlong is a perinent question.
there was a dubai, a greece, a spain, a goldmansachs.
its a nice opportunity to make a study on
How MP differs from other indicators on an Offhand Offmarkethour neg news.
We will wait to hear from you the explanations as things unfold.
Have a nice weekend.
:)

mo h said...

as well an Onmarket hour, if ES taken for study.

Shai said...

Purely looking at the es chart I would be a buyer here..

mo h said...

The profile may take a shape as time goes, another 3/4 way to go ...

Shai said...

..yes you are right.

the sellers may step back in at 1090.

But fact is that sellers lost control at the open and handed it back to the buyers.Markets may balance right here.

Let's see on Monday how strong our sellers are.

mo h said...

I dont have the ES chart.
Plz make your post for the weekend along with the ES chart, after you see the impact, and why , Shai

it will make a good read.

and, after Monday opening you can follow it up into our market effect.
as a writeup with our market developing chart.

sara said...

Sir..
Any study material for this week end?

Shai said...

Sure sara.

Will upload tomorrow.

sara said...

Thank u sir..
Weekend help to read and understand in leisure...

golfdude said...

S&P down 3%. Europe down 2%. Blood bath monday. Euro down below 1.2.

-- gd