Thursday, June 3, 2010

estimates for 3rd June.

The gap-up has definitely compounded matters and put us in that zone where it is decision time.

I'm watching the levels of 5065-5078 right here.

Let's see if the strength shown by buyers can take the market above that second level.

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9.55

Early indications that the gap up has been accepted by players.

I still like to give it 30-40 minutes more.Market profile is about price, volume as also time.

If these levels persist that one can take a long above 5079 with a stop below 5060.

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11.05

Starting to believe that this is a trend day in the making.

Buyers have been dominant and sellers have withered.

Crucially, we are now above our 5065 level and over 5078 as well, which was our second confirmation level.Somewhere else I had mentioned that the move above 5065 should take us to 5177 levels NF.Let's see..

All's well with the longs till 5078 and 5065 are maintained.

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11.18

Hope you guys are going through the notes in the classroom.

Market profile is a forward looking indicator designed to keep you looking ahead and be better prepared for what to expect.

Unlike your traditional stocs and macd's which give you confirmation post movement of price, we believe in looking at what to expect and look at emerging or current action for confirmation.

Like today, MP is telling me that it may be a trend day, and I will look at the flow of prices to confirm that view.

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12.13

Some reference levels I am watching before we hit 5177.

5121-5132 will be a point to part book longs.

Trend reverses below 5060-5065.

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12.48

There seems to be a determined seller sitting at 5101 NF.

A tussle happening at that level for the past one hour.

If you are intra-long, bring your Sl to 5075.

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13.07

That last break down to 5080 NF has severely dented the possibility of today being a trend day.

Even though volume was not very high for the break,sellers have begun to assert themselves at this level of NF 5100.

The only way buyers can control the hourly trend now is to bring price above 5100.

Longs be careful below 5060.

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13.22

Description : Positional trade. Buy Grasim.

Cost : 1786

Sl : 1760

Target : 1876.

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14.57

If you are as perplexed as me, as to why a perfectly looking trend day, froze right in the middle, then have a look at this chart of the Bank Nifty :



This is a simple price volume chart which shows the presence of the seller at 9300 F levels, on the right side of your chart.

Without support from the banks, no move is posiible in the Nifty.

It's always simple things like price and volume which tell your the story.

On the flip-side, should bank Nifty get above 9310 F, then a great move is possible

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41 comments:

r m said...

Good Morning Shai.

Unknown said...

gud morning..shai..

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai,
Yesterday I stuck in short @4980
A bad trade by me not put any sl & suden market rise.

Shai said...

GM all.

----

Thanks Sara.Level corrected to 5078.

ravi said...

hi

mo h said...

goodmorning shai, and friends.

@ ravi, saw your post, BankNifty margin is same as Nifty margin about 10%

INDITRADER said...

Shai,nf cross 5079 can a intra long be taken as per u mention?

Girish Desai said...

(Copying my comment from previous)
GM Shai and folks!

What a gap up!

We are now in a range extension. Would you think a rotation to previous POCs of 5037-5040 is possible or would it just run away?

Technical indicators like RSI (on 15-min) will start showing lots of ugly divergences if SPOT hits 5110-5120 levels

subrat said...

shai,gm what target for long?

Shai said...

Subrat,

Hold longs.

Check my post above.

Shai said...

Girish,

A range extension is the activity after the first hour.

A gap is also called an (invisible) buying/ selling tail in MP and shows the presence of buyers/ sellers.

Shai said...

Hope you guys are going through the notes in the classroom.

Market profile is a forward looking indicator designed to keep you looking ahead and be better prepared for what to expect.

Unlike your traditional stocs and macd's which give you confirmation post movement of price, we believe in looking at what to expect and look at emerging or current action for confirmation.

Like today, MP is telling me that it may be a trend day, and I will look at the flow of prices to confirm that view.

golfdude said...

hi shai,

Thx for ur notes. Some great calls. I need to trust ur calls - takes time. What do you refer to as classroom ? Any other site for MP education ?

gd

golfdude said...

Can i get MP data real time on the web ? I dont see in ChartNexus or with Ventura ( my broker ). In QT, I dont know how to pull Nifty chart itself. Not sure what to do there.

gd

Shai said...

Golfdude,

Market Profile is a very old way of looking at charts, but non-traditional.

Instead of plotting Volume on X axis, we plot it with price on the Y axis and put time on the Y.

Since it interferes with conventional analysis, most traditional charts will not have it.

Look at custom charts in Ami, Ninja, QT with a real-time feed.

MP education is on "forum" to your right.

Reg trusting my calls, I just share my views. I want you to make your own inference with your knowledge of MP and trade alongside ! The call should be yours not mine!

I don't want to be a guru or a master, just another blogmate, sharing what I see.

r m said...

@Shai
Stopped tweating? :)

Shai said...

No RM. : ).

Been a bit of a heavy day for me today, lots of position resizing in a few accounts.!

Wish Viren was here.

Shai said...

There twitter up..

Sorry twitter folks.

r m said...

OK, no problem, I was just joking. :)

Shai said...

Rm

:)

Shai said...

Trade alert : grasim

manu said...

shai

update on nifty..really confused..carrying positional longs..

Shai said...

Manu,

Cue is in bank nifty.

Watch that index.

It is facing really heavy resistance at 9299 Future.

Shai said...

Positional longs are safe above 5065 NF.

subrat said...

SHAI IT IT WISE TO CARRY LONG FOR YR POSITIONAL TARGET 5172

manu said...

shai

i hv put a sell at that lvl..will cvr nw..:)

Shai said...

Chart of BN uploaded.

Shai said...

Yes Subrat, the behavior is bullish and 5075 our intra-long ref line was protected.

Keep an eye for 5060-65 NF as the lower limit.

Also BN 9400 as in above chart.

Shai said...

Coorected to BN 9300.

mo h said...

bye shai, bye friends,
was not on blog today.
thanks.

r m said...

Bye Shai, have a great evening!

Shai said...

Bye Mok, Bye RM.

Hope all had a good day.

See you later.

rochak parekh said...

shai, a little confusion
are u referring to 9310 or 9410 as a resistance in bank nifty and are bank shares a screaming buy if BN trades succesfully above whatever level u recommend ( 9310 or 9410 ) please confirm
thanks

Shai said...

Rochak,

9310 future, regret the confusion.

Screaming buy :) . Good term.

I will say it is a good set-up with risk-reward easy to manage.

NIFTY SENSEX said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
NIFTY SENSEX said...

Hi Shai,
I have been a silent observer of ur excellent calls since the may expiry day...and hats off to u...can i ask three things...1. u very often mention about a software MP...how and from where can i download it? 2. in which software do u make ur charts shown here?...3. can i go long in nifty tomorow morning?

Vtrender said...

Arvinder,

The links to the afl used in the amibroker charts is in the forum to your right side.

Longs should have been taken today. About an entry point tomorrow, we will have to check the open price.

NIFTY SENSEX said...

Thanks for ur reply... i am new so please ignore my ignorance...does this mean i have to download amibroker first to run the .afl files?

NIFTY SENSEX said...

SIR, I have downloaded the afl file but it is not running on my system... pl help me to run it.
Thanks & regards..arv

sara said...

Arvinder,
First you download Amibroker from amibroker.com. Then you need Realtime data, so that you go for a paid one or free one like yahoo feed to get data in Ami. Free data offer you only cash script. If you want Future data go with Paid one, Cheapest one is Investbull.com. It offer realtime data for Rs.500/pm.
For beginner you start with trail one. For all the link you go to Market profile class room and check the "Market Profile-Day types" comment link. Mr.Veer post a to z link for Manshi RT for amibroker. Try based on that.

NIFTY SENSEX said...

Thanks a ton Sara for ur kind reply...shall try it out