The market has opened around 5300 with the low of the day being 5299 so far.
2 points above our 5297 ref level, if this is protected then we will move up from here.
Below 5297, the first level I see is 5276 and then 5246-58 from last week.
US futures broke below 1104 levels and now have seen 1090 so far. Let's see if 1083 is protected there.
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14.31
5344 :
Earlier I had called for the Nifty to reach 5344.How did I reach this figure?
If you had seen yesterday's profile, the seller took control of the tape from this level and drove the market down to 5322 and then 5311.
This level had to be met by the buyers today. Incidentally it is also the high of the day so far.
Our other level from last week/ start of the week of 5297 has also held up well.
Market Profile is a very simple system. It is all there in the price and the volume. Follow it and trading becomes simple.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
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67 comments:
Good Morning Shai!
GM RM.
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First ten minutes are spent auctioning btw 5312 and 5299--the low yesterday and the ref level.
Why didn't u do it yesterday only?? :)
Was waiting for the bird to tweet. :)
Gm Shai,
I will place a short below 5296
30 mins holding 5297.
Above 5314 it should reach 5325-5333.
GM Shai,
I had an experience like yours yesterday.
Short @5348 stop loss at 5357.95. The took out my stop and exactly went above my SL and fell from there.
Ideally SL should have been POC (5065) or shorts should have been hedged with 5400CEs.
Girish,
That short was a very good idea though...
We spent an hour yesterday btw 5225-5211 and almost an hour now btw 5299-5214.
The gap is now filled with good volumes.
Generally such gaps see a fast move and then a type of auction we are currently seeing.
It didn't happen with this one.
Good Morning Guys:
Any ideas on the possible settlement level for tomorrow.
Thanks.
Good ideas - not results. That's been the story of my trading experiences!
Like Livermore said - one has give the market "the tuition fees to learn lessons"
But MP seems to be - by far the best tool if one can learn to interpret, make educated guesses and trade.
dear shai,
its nice to see the market and the 5297 level. and also i am enjoying the trade with knowledge. from which link i will get us future and also i want to know from where i will get the table (which u produced in eod 21st ) of 5300ce's and 5400pe
Daruma,
We are using 5297 as a barometer. Below it expiry should settle at 5225-40 and above it 5377-98.
The educated guess will be clearer after the close today.
---
Ravi,
On the NSE site : http://www.nseindia.com/marketinfo/sym_map/symbolMapping.jsp?symbol=nifty&instrument=-&date=-&segmentLink=5&symbolCount=2. Open the quote link.
Hi Shai,
Your analysis of IFCI futures..eos price -
Gm all..
shai u keeeping Grasim with u ..trgt still pending
thank u shai, its nice to studying the market. i got that table..
shai,
as per yesterdays closing in 5300pe the sellers are double to the buyer. and in 5300ce its same with small diff. and in 5400ce buyer is greater that seller and in 5400pe more sellers with 10000.whats it means....not expect a big move from here (as per yesterdays closing)
Manu,
It still is lying in my DP somewhere.
The stock has been a non-starter. Volumes have been missing.
asri,
I looked up IFCI. The stock does not do a lot intra.EOD it has got good supports at 53.5-54 short term.
Dear Sahi,
I m learner of Volume Profile. Pls explain calculation of level of 5297
Pawan,
See selling tails from last week's profiles.
Thanx for your valuable guidance
shai i can see only dow. i cant dow future . from which link i get it
AI IS IT BETTER TO SELL INTRA BELOW 5297 WITH WITH 5327 SL?
SORRY SHAI
Subrat,
The sell is below 5295 with stop at 5315.
---
Be careful if you enter orders in your platform btw 10.30 and 12.30 as I have noted the volumes to be very low during this period.You can get sucked in as it happened to us yesterday.
Better to trade as the market unfolds.
O THANKS I M YR SILENT FOLLOWER.THX FOR YR TIMELY RESPONSE
welcome Subrat.
Every profit gives us money!
Every loss gives us knowledge!
Feel that we cut upwards now.
14 needs to hold now.
longs got another opportunity to enter.
Sl is day low.
GA Shai BN views?
BM above 9680 should show 9735, sl 9650
* BN
Hope you guys got long...
next is 44.
bn fired 9720
Thanks Shai, sitting on it since it crossed 5313. :)
Will it be a good idea to trail the sl to cost here?
THX SHAI LONG INTIME
9725.85 high
It's always wise to cover 50 % here at our first estimate and bring sl of bal to cost price.
Thanks Shai
Sahi Sir
What Importance of level 5314 ?
Still a good chance to get to 5344, IMO.
Dear Shai, as 5297 not broken, now sud we expect 5400 for expiry??Thanks
yes Bizagara,
your analysis is right.
Pawan,
It is a market generated intra-day ref level.
Bizagra,
only by EOD, we can get a clear picture as OI will change..
Sahi Sir,
I think This is real time VAH as i see in Intra volume profile chart
Pawan,
Maybe you are right.
Incidentally I put the level up at 9.33 in the comment above.
Shai,
not much activity at 5400 strike price. Possible expiry could be 5300 itself?
5344 TSL now 5328.look at 5358-68 now.
Market gave ample opp at 5314 to load up today. I saw it come there 3 times at least.
GK,
You have to look at the preceding strike too.
How much unwinding can happen if price pushes/ recedes.
5344 nf high :)
I 'll like to see 5367 today.
Thanks Shai,
Dear Shai,i m holding a positional short@5290 , only on the basis that if new high not made, we can start the 3rd big wave down.wht sud be my positional sl.Plz suggest
Thanks
Booked some lots at 40.
Final TSL at 28 for remaining qty.
shai i had buy nifty at 5328 what sl and tgt should i look at
Bizagra,
5297 and 5367 are your ref levels.
Above 5367 we make new highs.
----
You should have averaged at 5372. A few days back I had put my roadmap in the comments.Even I had a few shorts from last week, but got rid of them at a decent profit.
Soha,
I have a TSL at 5328. this intra-up move is safe above 5314.
Target 5344-5358-5367.
Hope you guys got long...
next is 44.
June 23, 2010 12:52 PM
Explanation posted above.
I'm out of my longs but will not hesitate to jump back in above 44 again.
Auction zone 5322-5344 now to complete the double distribution.
(No chance above 44 now)
SHAI WHAT IS BEST FOR TOMM?
Hi,
Wts ur view on Expiry settlement.
Bye Shai! Good long trade today. :)
Expiry range 5270-5380 roughly?
same wordings again from the fed---exceptionally low levels extended period of time.
Looks like we will break 1083 and go to 1070.1086 now.
Hi Viren,
Kindly indicate link for reading Market profile system.
Also indicate any excel file for calculating values/
Regards,
Bose
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