Monday, June 14, 2010

Estimates for 14th June

A generally bullish day expected with an open of 5138 which is above value and Friday's range. For the purists, it is also an open above previous resistances.

To us, it signifies that buyers are back in control and ready to push the market up.

5156 and 5177 would be levels to watch on upside.

On the downside 5127/ 5137.

Please refer to weekend chart.

Also keep an eye on the ES at 1090 now and above our 1083.

-----------------

9.16

Bank Nifty battles 9475.

9475 is the POC from last months value. Also there exists another high value node at 9500 levels. Above these 2 prints, bank nifty should make a quick dash to 97xx levels.

-----------------

12.50

Sell bank Nifty

Cost : 9460

Sl : 9510

Target : 9385

--------------

15.04


Open Interest analysis :

16 lac puts have been added at 5100 and 12 lacs at 5200.

Against this, 560,000 calls have reduced at 5100 with only 178000 added at 5200 out of these.

The reduction at 5100 and the lack of addition of a similar quantity at 5200 speaks of the changing bias of the market. Buyers are in control.

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55 comments:

r m said...

Good Morning Shai!

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai.

Shai said...

GM RM & Musti.

--

mo h said...

goodmorning Shai,
goodmorning RM,musti

Shai said...

GM Mok.

---

Markets doing well.Sellers not to be seen yet.
I'm trying to figure what kind of a day awaits us ?

Anybody's got ideas?

golfdude said...

2 cents...

GM everybody. 5165 ( 50 DMA and connecting prev 5300+ highs ) acting as resistance. 5170 and above, then 5210 possible. Else 5120.

-- gd

manu said...

shai,,
gm,,weekenders articles are good

whn viru pa ji cmng..

fundooguysus said...

good mng shai
@rm mok
have a nice trading day

mo h said...

its a psychological barrier area,
market seems to wait for some cue after the gapup.
and we are gyrating within todays area, 5161 5155 5149 developing area
the whole area is within initial balance.
price within area,
so it is containment for now .. ?
shai ?

mo h said...

that was in 15m TF, in 5TF the area has extended above the initial balance

fundooguysus said...

hi shai
plz guide me "how can i calculate VAL VAH AND POC " in quotetracker with esignal data feed.
im unable to get it , i tried all indicators
thanx

Shai said...

Golfdude,

Considering that the 200dma was such a non-event, how much weight-age should we give to the 50 DMA?

Thanks for your input.

-----------

Mok,

It is too early to focus on today's developing value.

---

Dr Suarabh,

GM.

Hope your QT is up and running...

-----

Manu,

Viren is out for the month.

----

mo h said...

ok, thanks shai

Shai said...

Nifty wants to go...

Bank Nifty struggling at 9475..

Shai said...

Dr Saurabh,

Meet me at my gmail ID at 11.00.

We'll sort it. vtrender@gmail.com.

fundooguysus said...

THANX SHAI
SO NICE OF U

ravi said...

hi shai/mok
i want to know about mp (i tried to down load, but i failed, my net connection is dialup). whats mp? and whats the use of it? how it works and how it download.

Shai said...

Ravi,

MP is Market Profile. The forum to your right will have all the answers to your questions.

ravi said...

its works here or any other link?

Shai said...

Ravi,

??

---

5177 Nifty fut and 9501 BNF on watch.

mo h said...

ravi

click this

this will take you to vtrender MP class pages.

ravi said...

i mean about the discussion. at here or any other link for that.
now i am doing in market as per ur buy or sell reco. its intresting to know about the levels. i feel ur levels are working very good. I am intrested to study about that. How can i? on last expiry date ...its really wonderful. it turns my view about the market..my knowledge about the market was its working with some news and FII's and with dow.

Shai said...

Aaah Ravi. All the discussion is here. No other link.

ravi said...

thanks for the link ..mok

ravi said...

thanks shai and mok...now i am going through ur classroom

bizagra said...

Dear Shai, can we go long in bank nifty above 9500 with 9470 as SL?
Thanks

Shai said...

Bizagra,

Can't say now.Watch for price reaction and volume at that level.

Take a long only if it sustains above.

Daruma Inc. said...

Getting in front of this freight train here - shorting Nifty at 5169 - 5205 SL

Gut feeling more than anything else!

Shai said...

Good call Daruma.

I like people who back themselves.

Nifty and BN are at resistances and your Sl is good.

manu said...

whts ur target daruma?

Shai said...

-----------------

12.50

Sell bank Nifty

Cost : 9460

Sl : 9510

Target : 9385

Shai said...

5155 is the ref level for Nifty now on the downside.

Daruma Inc. said...

Manu:

Would like to see how it develops - see a bad moon rising - will probably move SL to BE and then will let it ride.
For now though, just sitting and watching -
..

Shai said...

Not seeing a lot of follow-through selling...

Try to cover some around 9440.

Shai said...

Book a few BN lots here btw 9430-9440, and bring Sl of remaining to 9470.

Shai said...

I know the profits have been small on the trade, but there isn't much happening on either index in the past 4 hours.

So let's take what the market gives..

sara said...

Open low was same both Nifty and Bank nifty.That's play as support...

Shai said...

Yes Sara.

Open low and open high are clear examples of the buyer/ seller and his control during the day.

Good point.

---
Stop at 9470 taken. Trade over.

Shai said...

Nifty & BN back to morning prices.

Happy we booked out at 9440. Now 9485. :) .

r m said...

We snatched the fish from crocodile's jaws? Thanks. :)

Shai said...

RM - We were the fish ? :) .

Nifty has galloped up above 5155.

BN has stalled, not cleared the morning highs like Nifty. A definite sign of weakness there.

Daruma Inc. said...

sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug - guess, I'm the bug today!

Shai said...

Daruma,

I thought you closed out near 5140. You gave back some good profits.

r m said...

@Shai
No we were the smart fishermen!
:)

Daruma Inc. said...

no worries sir - its all good!
win some, lose some, just got to stay in the game!
Your work is great - you do a stellar job - thanks for letting us participate!

Shai said...

Still scratching my head about taking BN home long or short?

45 mins left.

9510 is key.

r m said...

Volumes are pretty good above 9480.

ravi said...

shai,
todays open price was 5138.25 and low was also that...what it points...bullish.. (i am asking in the view of morning)

shr said...

Yes, today market again taught that there is more to be made (and in short time) following the trend than taking a contra view.

Shai said...

Shr,

You are right about that!

The morning view was bullish and we were fortunate with that BN call.

r m said...

Bye Shai, skipping the class early again. :)

Shai said...

Bye all.

See you later!

Operator said...

Hello On what level can we short Nifty

Shai said...

New post with today's chart.

rochak parekh said...

hello shai,
i wish to present an observation before u
please react to this
RNRL has risen with volumes less than the volumes it has generated while falling on the judgement day. but managred to close above the avg. with which it has fallen on the judgement day
what i meant to say is
on judgement day the avg. with which it has traded on nse cash was 59.72, vol. 263167900
today, it traded with an avg. of 58, vol.65016390
since, it has managed to overcome that panic avg. with which it has fallen , is it an enuf bullish signal to taken a LONG only entry
OR
since, while overcoming that earlier panic avg. volumes are not with RNRL, it wud be too early to take it as a bullish sign
since, u r a maestro to take a shot at a trade on the basis of price and volumes, i thought u r a perfect person to handle this
and then
kindly suggest the sl if u r suggestive to take a long trade ( and please also suggest a proper reasoning for ur decision to decide a stop loss)
also
if u r not suggestive to take a long entry, kindly suggest a reasoning with details to do so
i hope u get my query properly
thanks answering
u r so nice as ever to reply such a demanding query
regards