Good Morning all.
The market is trying to find value between 5225 and 5271 this morning.
Let's see how this plays out.
-----
12.07
@ Manu,@ All,
My views on the blog are for intra-day based on market profile levels with no prejudice towards long or short before the open price.
I can take a long view one day and a short for intra next day, based on the info the market gives me.Sometimes I look at the preceding day ( days) activity to arrive at a better judgement.
Somedays I may not have a view at all.
Viren is more of a positional player nowadays and he carries his positions for weeks if not days.I'll ask him to be clearer with his time-frame next time.
Hope I'm clear on this.
-----
1.42
This move above 5271 has caught me napping, to say the least.
Un-accounted would be a right word to use in my case.
I'm staying away from commenting as I am unsure at the moment.
In retrospect, 5225 seems to have been a good place to initiate longs.
I had blogged about that level in my post on Monday morning here.
----
14.31
I am watching the close today and the activity between now and the close.
To me it is a normal variation day, which is a sign of continuity the next day if we hold on to the prices here. Also the open tomorrow should be about here and more.
Secondly, by moving above 5271 prices will show a rejection of lower print and get back into the bracket we have known all last week.
So let's see where we close today and take it from there.
-----
14.41
A quick look at the ES futures shows them at 1039 now and close to the yearly lows at 1036 of the July contract.
In fact the yearly low was 1032.75 in the september contract which has been re-printed today.A break of that level can set it up easily for 1000 to be printed.
Quite a bit of divergence then, they at yearly lows we near yearly highs.
Either they rally or we fall.
The divergence cannot prevail.
---------------
14.50
For more clarity on inter-market relationships check this post here and here
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Estimates for 29th June
We have begun the first twenty minutes of trade well below the 5320 level.
I had mentioned 5271-5320-5344-5367 as the levels to watch in this bracket which is emerging.
Bracket trading is good and easy provided you understand it early.
5320 still is the pivot around which the other 2 levels can be reached.
Viren feels that end of quarter window dressing is holding the market up. I also feels that sellers have not been very aggressive.
Till 5271 is held, it is 'buy the dips' market or 'short the rips' till 5367.
Two tongued language, yes, but that's how you play the bracket--play it both sides.
------------------------
Bracket :
Today is the seventh trading day in the bracket highlighted by the yellow lines.
Within this bracket, we can see value being established sideways ( blue areas) .
The arrows also denote areas where buying/ selling has occurred.
The best way to trade these brackets is to know your levels well and be quick to take profits. Other than that, one can buy at the bottom or sell near the top with tight stops.
----
14.16
For the record, the chart updated above has been invalidated.
Does make me feel stupid, when my analysis goes wrong. But I rather look stupid than lose money ( mine as well as yours).
The markets have their own flow and we have to respect that.
Consider the market movement to be like that of a river in flow. When the current is strong you might as well swim with it than against it.
Today the flow has been strong southwards.We just have to accept the message of the market and move on.
This is the intra day chart of the Nifty ( 30 min duration).
The profile is markedly absent.And the candlesticks all point down.
A perfect trend day.
These days are rare. But easiest to trade. Just hold and wait.
-----
I had mentioned 5271-5320-5344-5367 as the levels to watch in this bracket which is emerging.
Bracket trading is good and easy provided you understand it early.
5320 still is the pivot around which the other 2 levels can be reached.
Viren feels that end of quarter window dressing is holding the market up. I also feels that sellers have not been very aggressive.
Till 5271 is held, it is 'buy the dips' market or 'short the rips' till 5367.
Two tongued language, yes, but that's how you play the bracket--play it both sides.
------------------------
Bracket :
Today is the seventh trading day in the bracket highlighted by the yellow lines.
Within this bracket, we can see value being established sideways ( blue areas) .
The arrows also denote areas where buying/ selling has occurred.
The best way to trade these brackets is to know your levels well and be quick to take profits. Other than that, one can buy at the bottom or sell near the top with tight stops.
----
14.16
For the record, the chart updated above has been invalidated.
Does make me feel stupid, when my analysis goes wrong. But I rather look stupid than lose money ( mine as well as yours).
The markets have their own flow and we have to respect that.
Consider the market movement to be like that of a river in flow. When the current is strong you might as well swim with it than against it.
Today the flow has been strong southwards.We just have to accept the message of the market and move on.
This is the intra day chart of the Nifty ( 30 min duration).
The profile is markedly absent.And the candlesticks all point down.
A perfect trend day.
These days are rare. But easiest to trade. Just hold and wait.
-----
Monday, June 28, 2010
28TH June
We are still laboring in the 5271-5320 range mentioned on Friday morning, which has held notwithstanding a small rise to 5335 on news.
This morning we have moved between 5293 and 5319.
On the larger weekly timeframe, Nifty has managed to negotiate well the "wall of worries" mentioned 2 fridays' back.
So though we have had supply come in at higher levels, value has been created higher on the weekly.
Besides 5320, we have 5345 and 5367 to watch out for during this week. A close above 5367 will be extremely good for the buyers. (It is amazing how 5367 is showing up in other analysis now. We've had this level from last tuesday).
On the downside 5225 is the level to watch on the daily TF.
-----
Chart of NF showing a weekly cumulative profile. As you can see that value has been established higher, implying that buyers are still in control.
----------
12.42 pm.
Here is the chart of the spx futures also called ES.
The right hand side has a cumulative profile of the action.
As can be seen from the chart we are below the 1083 level which is a high value node on the chart.
A failure to overcome that level, points to more downside on that chart.
--------------
This morning we have moved between 5293 and 5319.
On the larger weekly timeframe, Nifty has managed to negotiate well the "wall of worries" mentioned 2 fridays' back.
So though we have had supply come in at higher levels, value has been created higher on the weekly.
Besides 5320, we have 5345 and 5367 to watch out for during this week. A close above 5367 will be extremely good for the buyers. (It is amazing how 5367 is showing up in other analysis now. We've had this level from last tuesday).
On the downside 5225 is the level to watch on the daily TF.
-----
Chart of NF showing a weekly cumulative profile. As you can see that value has been established higher, implying that buyers are still in control.
----------
12.42 pm.
Here is the chart of the spx futures also called ES.
The right hand side has a cumulative profile of the action.
As can be seen from the chart we are below the 1083 level which is a high value node on the chart.
A failure to overcome that level, points to more downside on that chart.
--------------
Friday, June 25, 2010
Profile Classroom
For our weekend notes on Market profile, I dug up an article written by Doug Tucker from his blog : http://tuckerreport.com/articles/market-profile-a-primer/.
Mr Tucker begins of by admonishing believers of Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci, Moons and tides who have turned away from the market to "find a correlation between price action and unrelated causes" in his words.
I do not count Elliot and fibonacci in the same league as the other three, simply because they are very good systems to measure the symmetry (or lack of) of the markets.
His views on indicators/ oscillators resonate with ours.
Anyways, I felt the clarification was necessary as my focus is to bring the article and his summary of Market Profile which is very good and covers all that we have discussed in the Profile Classroom.You can ignore the starting print if you like..
Catch Tucker as he talks about price & volume, the auction process, different day types, value area and tails.
The article can be accessed from here: market-profile-a-primer/
Mr Tucker begins of by admonishing believers of Gann, Elliot, Fibonacci, Moons and tides who have turned away from the market to "find a correlation between price action and unrelated causes" in his words.
I do not count Elliot and fibonacci in the same league as the other three, simply because they are very good systems to measure the symmetry (or lack of) of the markets.
His views on indicators/ oscillators resonate with ours.
Anyways, I felt the clarification was necessary as my focus is to bring the article and his summary of Market Profile which is very good and covers all that we have discussed in the Profile Classroom.You can ignore the starting print if you like..
Catch Tucker as he talks about price & volume, the auction process, different day types, value area and tails.
The article can be accessed from here: market-profile-a-primer/
Estimates for 25th June
Welcome all to a new series!
The closing of 5320 in the NF would be an important ref level going forward.
For Intra-day today, I will be watching price volume reactions at 5315/ 20 and at 5270 on the lower side.
We should trade btw these levels for a large part of the day.
------------
The closing of 5320 in the NF would be an important ref level going forward.
For Intra-day today, I will be watching price volume reactions at 5315/ 20 and at 5270 on the lower side.
We should trade btw these levels for a large part of the day.
------------
Thursday, June 24, 2010
EOD Update- Nifty Expiry.
For the record, the Vix formula outlined in my previous post failed today.
Well we did operate in the range of 5276-5380 projected by the Vix and we did close above 5300, but the final close of 5320 fell far short of the projected 5380 top of the range we wanted.
That is the first time in 4 months that we have fallen short of the mark. The previous three attempts have been +/- 10 points off the mark.
For what lies ahead, let's look at the charts :
The chart is that of the Nifty Future ( July) for the first four days of the week.
This week the market has auctioned and tried to create value in a region not seen in this expiry. Right from the gap-up this Monday to the close today we traded in new territory for the series except for a few minutes this afternoon.
The yellow arrows show that buyers and sellers have both tried to gain the upper hand with little success. The zone remains 5297-5377 with buyers in the bottom half and sellers in the top half.
Even from today's profile, one can see the seller appearing when buyers were not able to drive prices a lot higher than yesterday's close.
We call such activity a bracket in Market Profile.
Brackets usually happen at the end of a trend or at the beginning of one and are very easy to trade.70 % of the time markets trade in brackets and we should get used to them. On a longer time frame this entire year so far has been a big bracket and we do not seem to be getting out of it soon.
P.S:
The trend is never your friend because history shows that we trend only 30% of the time.
Well we did operate in the range of 5276-5380 projected by the Vix and we did close above 5300, but the final close of 5320 fell far short of the projected 5380 top of the range we wanted.
That is the first time in 4 months that we have fallen short of the mark. The previous three attempts have been +/- 10 points off the mark.
For what lies ahead, let's look at the charts :
The chart is that of the Nifty Future ( July) for the first four days of the week.
This week the market has auctioned and tried to create value in a region not seen in this expiry. Right from the gap-up this Monday to the close today we traded in new territory for the series except for a few minutes this afternoon.
The yellow arrows show that buyers and sellers have both tried to gain the upper hand with little success. The zone remains 5297-5377 with buyers in the bottom half and sellers in the top half.
Even from today's profile, one can see the seller appearing when buyers were not able to drive prices a lot higher than yesterday's close.
We call such activity a bracket in Market Profile.
Brackets usually happen at the end of a trend or at the beginning of one and are very easy to trade.70 % of the time markets trade in brackets and we should get used to them. On a longer time frame this entire year so far has been a big bracket and we do not seem to be getting out of it soon.
P.S:
The trend is never your friend because history shows that we trend only 30% of the time.
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Nifty Expiry- June
I intended to do this post in the evening, but ran into some problems with the NSE site which was flashing two different sets of Open Interest figures between 7.00 pm and 10.00 pm. The excruciating part was that there was a 20 % difference between the figures at 5300 CE, one showing covering at the 5300 strike and the other showing addition of the same amount at the strike !!
The calculations for the expiry have been done as per the formula detailed in this post here
The formula projects a range of 5276-5390 for the session.
Now comes the Open Interest part :
The reduction of 11 % in the 5300 CE and the addition of 11 % in the 5300 PE point to an expiry above 5300.
Further if you look ahead at the 5400 strike, you can see a reduction of 11 % at the 5400 put and addition of 7 % at the 5400 call.
This means that writers at these strikes are confident that the expiry will be below 5400.
So VIX is predicting that the future will expire around 5380/90 today.
Let's see how it holds up.
We of course will be tracking the call of the VIX with Market Profile.
If there is a divergence, we will be the first to know.
--------------------
The calculations for the expiry have been done as per the formula detailed in this post here
The formula projects a range of 5276-5390 for the session.
Now comes the Open Interest part :
The reduction of 11 % in the 5300 CE and the addition of 11 % in the 5300 PE point to an expiry above 5300.
Further if you look ahead at the 5400 strike, you can see a reduction of 11 % at the 5400 put and addition of 7 % at the 5400 call.
This means that writers at these strikes are confident that the expiry will be below 5400.
So VIX is predicting that the future will expire around 5380/90 today.
Let's see how it holds up.
We of course will be tracking the call of the VIX with Market Profile.
If there is a divergence, we will be the first to know.
--------------------
Estimates for 23rd June
The market has opened around 5300 with the low of the day being 5299 so far.
2 points above our 5297 ref level, if this is protected then we will move up from here.
Below 5297, the first level I see is 5276 and then 5246-58 from last week.
US futures broke below 1104 levels and now have seen 1090 so far. Let's see if 1083 is protected there.
-------------------
14.31
5344 :
Earlier I had called for the Nifty to reach 5344.How did I reach this figure?
If you had seen yesterday's profile, the seller took control of the tape from this level and drove the market down to 5322 and then 5311.
This level had to be met by the buyers today. Incidentally it is also the high of the day so far.
Our other level from last week/ start of the week of 5297 has also held up well.
Market Profile is a very simple system. It is all there in the price and the volume. Follow it and trading becomes simple.
2 points above our 5297 ref level, if this is protected then we will move up from here.
Below 5297, the first level I see is 5276 and then 5246-58 from last week.
US futures broke below 1104 levels and now have seen 1090 so far. Let's see if 1083 is protected there.
-------------------
14.31
5344 :
Earlier I had called for the Nifty to reach 5344.How did I reach this figure?
If you had seen yesterday's profile, the seller took control of the tape from this level and drove the market down to 5322 and then 5311.
This level had to be met by the buyers today. Incidentally it is also the high of the day so far.
Our other level from last week/ start of the week of 5297 has also held up well.
Market Profile is a very simple system. It is all there in the price and the volume. Follow it and trading becomes simple.
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Estimates for 22nd June.
The open of today is outside of value but in range.
The levels I am watching are 5325 and 5354 and beyond this are 5298 and 5378.
Value for today in the Nifty is 5377-5365-5354 and in the Bank Nifty it is 9777-9756-9694.
---------------
13.42
Uploading a chart of the Nifty future for the past 4 days of action.
We had called for a move lower as per profile today and we have it with value building in the lower part of yesterday's profile.
The only thing is whether we continue like this as happened on Friday or make new ground.
-------------------
The levels I am watching are 5325 and 5354 and beyond this are 5298 and 5378.
Value for today in the Nifty is 5377-5365-5354 and in the Bank Nifty it is 9777-9756-9694.
---------------
13.42
Uploading a chart of the Nifty future for the past 4 days of action.
We had called for a move lower as per profile today and we have it with value building in the lower part of yesterday's profile.
The only thing is whether we continue like this as happened on Friday or make new ground.
-------------------
Monday, June 21, 2010
EOD update 21st June
A quick comment on the Nifty action of today.
I had noted the action of today to form a "p" shaped profile. We have seen earlier how a "b" shaped profile results in a stalling of an upmove. A "p" shape on the other hand can be a pre-cursor to longs unwinding in a stock or index.
Let's have a look :
The 2 day profile shows a top heavy distribution in the shape of a "p" enough to get us profilers to think about short set-ups in the morning.
5377 will again be a point of reference to the upside. Of course, as in every close, the open needs to be monitored to ensure that the market is thinking the same!
I also ran a quick check on the open interest for June and I found something particularly interesting at the 5400 strike.
Have a look :
Notice the buying in the 5400 PE of 371000 and the selling in the 5400 CE of 350900.
Smart money was moving into short positions by the close today.
So Profile and Open Interest point to a move downwards tomorrow.
Let's see how the day unfolds..
I had noted the action of today to form a "p" shaped profile. We have seen earlier how a "b" shaped profile results in a stalling of an upmove. A "p" shape on the other hand can be a pre-cursor to longs unwinding in a stock or index.
Let's have a look :
The 2 day profile shows a top heavy distribution in the shape of a "p" enough to get us profilers to think about short set-ups in the morning.
5377 will again be a point of reference to the upside. Of course, as in every close, the open needs to be monitored to ensure that the market is thinking the same!
I also ran a quick check on the open interest for June and I found something particularly interesting at the 5400 strike.
Have a look :
Notice the buying in the 5400 PE of 371000 and the selling in the 5400 CE of 350900.
Smart money was moving into short positions by the close today.
So Profile and Open Interest point to a move downwards tomorrow.
Let's see how the day unfolds..
Estimates for 21st June.
Good Morning all.
I'm just returning to my office after a weekend trip.
The market is giving us an open which is outside of value and range of friday.
There are large possibilities for a directional move in either direction.Quite simply the gap up is a buying tail, indicating the presence of buyers who want to take the market higher. But we also know that we are reaching zones of known supply brought in by intermediate term sellers.
Expect the market to auction here for a while.
I'll be back with some charts and updates...
---------------
11.33
Often a question is raised on how to measure the strength or resistance of a particular level.
As you know, our levels posted here are completely price-volume based, ie, there are no trendlines, moving averages etc to measure them.So how do we know a particular level will hold or not.
The answer is always in the price reaction.
For example, the level of 5372 given as a resistance has held up so far. The high is 5372.45 and the reaction off that level has measured 10 points so far, which is average.
Now an inability to get a bigger reaction off 5372, i.e more than 10 points, will mean that the level will not hold.
--------------
I'm just returning to my office after a weekend trip.
The market is giving us an open which is outside of value and range of friday.
There are large possibilities for a directional move in either direction.Quite simply the gap up is a buying tail, indicating the presence of buyers who want to take the market higher. But we also know that we are reaching zones of known supply brought in by intermediate term sellers.
Expect the market to auction here for a while.
I'll be back with some charts and updates...
---------------
11.33
Often a question is raised on how to measure the strength or resistance of a particular level.
As you know, our levels posted here are completely price-volume based, ie, there are no trendlines, moving averages etc to measure them.So how do we know a particular level will hold or not.
The answer is always in the price reaction.
For example, the level of 5372 given as a resistance has held up so far. The high is 5372.45 and the reaction off that level has measured 10 points so far, which is average.
Now an inability to get a bigger reaction off 5372, i.e more than 10 points, will mean that the level will not hold.
--------------
Friday, June 18, 2010
Estimates for 18th June
GM All.
It seems we have another quite morning on our hands in the first session today.
5266-5271 should provide initial support below which value areas will have to be watched.
Bank Nifty did not participate in the big run-up yesterday afternoon, so keep an eye on it for weakness and for short trades.
Here are the value areas :
Nifty= 5258-5226-5206
Bank Nifty = 9548-9514-9479.
-----------------------
10.09
Profile chart of 30 min duration Nifty Future :
-------
12.45
Uploading a volume profile chart 5 min duration yesterday and today.
Notice that the 'b' shape of yesterday is getting filled today on the upper part.
If the auction continues down then it should fill up 5225-5238.
--------------
3.06
Updated chart of the Nifty Future shows how value has been created in the upper part of yesterday's profile.
The profile itself is balanced.
Also, notice that it is inside yesterday's range entirely, also called an "Inside day" by traditional systems.
So we have to wait for cues on Monday.
I'm leaning to the short side a bit, but will take a call after the open on Monday.
---------------------
It seems we have another quite morning on our hands in the first session today.
5266-5271 should provide initial support below which value areas will have to be watched.
Bank Nifty did not participate in the big run-up yesterday afternoon, so keep an eye on it for weakness and for short trades.
Here are the value areas :
Nifty= 5258-5226-5206
Bank Nifty = 9548-9514-9479.
-----------------------
10.09
Profile chart of 30 min duration Nifty Future :
-------
12.45
Uploading a volume profile chart 5 min duration yesterday and today.
Notice that the 'b' shape of yesterday is getting filled today on the upper part.
If the auction continues down then it should fill up 5225-5238.
--------------
3.06
Updated chart of the Nifty Future shows how value has been created in the upper part of yesterday's profile.
The profile itself is balanced.
Also, notice that it is inside yesterday's range entirely, also called an "Inside day" by traditional systems.
So we have to wait for cues on Monday.
I'm leaning to the short side a bit, but will take a call after the open on Monday.
---------------------
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Estimates for 17th June
An open of 5232 against the close of 5223 yesterday, suggests that not much has changed in the way the market is looking at the short term picture.
Whilst there is a bit of heaviness in the prices, as maintained yesterday the sellers have not been very aggressive to push the prices down.
All that can change if we auction below 5210 today.
On the upside the levels are 5259/ 74.
Value area for Nifty : 5239-5230-5223
Value area for bank Nifty : 9555-9535-9515
-----------------
Whilst there is a bit of heaviness in the prices, as maintained yesterday the sellers have not been very aggressive to push the prices down.
All that can change if we auction below 5210 today.
On the upside the levels are 5259/ 74.
Value area for Nifty : 5239-5230-5223
Value area for bank Nifty : 9555-9535-9515
-----------------
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Estimates for 16th June
The value area rule should come to play today, for all of you 80% rule lovers.
Value area for today :
5217-5194-5174.
Short below 5217 for 5194/ 5174.
Chances are as good as 80 % if we get to 5217 by/ before 10.30. SL 5236.
Happy trading.
---------
9.20
Levels to watch on the upside are 5259-5274.
--------------
9.30
There were quite a few opinions in the market yesterday, that the sudden volumes and the jump in the market from 5173 levels was due to the ongoing positive news coming from the Ambani brothers.
End of day charts show an increase in volumes for counters like RNRL and RIIL.
But I was watching the US futures come to 1084 around the same time and bounce from there.
Can the Ambani brothers influence the US futures too? :).
None of their stocks are listed there. Makes me wonder why?
------------------------------
Value area for today :
5217-5194-5174.
Short below 5217 for 5194/ 5174.
Chances are as good as 80 % if we get to 5217 by/ before 10.30. SL 5236.
Happy trading.
---------
9.20
Levels to watch on the upside are 5259-5274.
--------------
9.30
There were quite a few opinions in the market yesterday, that the sudden volumes and the jump in the market from 5173 levels was due to the ongoing positive news coming from the Ambani brothers.
End of day charts show an increase in volumes for counters like RNRL and RIIL.
But I was watching the US futures come to 1084 around the same time and bounce from there.
Can the Ambani brothers influence the US futures too? :).
None of their stocks are listed there. Makes me wonder why?
------------------------------
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Estimates for 15th June
Looks to be a narrow range morning session where the high value node at 5218 NF should put up some resistance for the Nifty.
On the downside 5174 and value area high at 5182 are initial supports.
------------
10.51
Nearly 2 hours of trading have passed and the Nifty has traded a narrow 24 points so far. We had called for a high in the first 90 minutes and so far 5209 made around 9.30 is holding out as the high of the day so far.
Another piece of information the market is giving, is the less than average volume so far.This implies that major participants are on the sidelines and the market may move in the afternoon session if they return.
----------------
On the downside 5174 and value area high at 5182 are initial supports.
------------
10.51
Nearly 2 hours of trading have passed and the Nifty has traded a narrow 24 points so far. We had called for a high in the first 90 minutes and so far 5209 made around 9.30 is holding out as the high of the day so far.
Another piece of information the market is giving, is the less than average volume so far.This implies that major participants are on the sidelines and the market may move in the afternoon session if they return.
----------------
Monday, June 14, 2010
EOD 14th June
I had posed a question in the comments section in the morning today at about 9.45-ish, about the kind of day that awaits us.
We had a normal variation day today.
Such days are generally difficult to predict, as things can change a lot in the C, and D and E,F periods.
But I found something interesting on the charts. Have a look :
Today's day was exactly similar to the day on Thursday.
An open above value, a move lower in the middle phase and a rip-off higher into the close...and a "b" shape again.
Those Open interest figures which I posted near the close testify to the "b" shape. Call writers were unwinding and most of it was flowing into put writing.
But there is another thing which I had mentioned on the weekend about such days.
Such days have generally a gap-up the next day and the highs of the day are made in the first ninety minutes of trade.
Again it is a general observation, not a rule written in stone, but we will put it to the test again tomorrow, like we did on friday.
Join me at the open to know...
We had a normal variation day today.
Such days are generally difficult to predict, as things can change a lot in the C, and D and E,F periods.
But I found something interesting on the charts. Have a look :
Today's day was exactly similar to the day on Thursday.
An open above value, a move lower in the middle phase and a rip-off higher into the close...and a "b" shape again.
Those Open interest figures which I posted near the close testify to the "b" shape. Call writers were unwinding and most of it was flowing into put writing.
But there is another thing which I had mentioned on the weekend about such days.
Such days have generally a gap-up the next day and the highs of the day are made in the first ninety minutes of trade.
Again it is a general observation, not a rule written in stone, but we will put it to the test again tomorrow, like we did on friday.
Join me at the open to know...
Estimates for 14th June
A generally bullish day expected with an open of 5138 which is above value and Friday's range. For the purists, it is also an open above previous resistances.
To us, it signifies that buyers are back in control and ready to push the market up.
5156 and 5177 would be levels to watch on upside.
On the downside 5127/ 5137.
Please refer to weekend chart.
Also keep an eye on the ES at 1090 now and above our 1083.
-----------------
9.16
Bank Nifty battles 9475.
9475 is the POC from last months value. Also there exists another high value node at 9500 levels. Above these 2 prints, bank nifty should make a quick dash to 97xx levels.
-----------------
12.50
Sell bank Nifty
Cost : 9460
Sl : 9510
Target : 9385
--------------
15.04
Open Interest analysis :
16 lac puts have been added at 5100 and 12 lacs at 5200.
Against this, 560,000 calls have reduced at 5100 with only 178000 added at 5200 out of these.
The reduction at 5100 and the lack of addition of a similar quantity at 5200 speaks of the changing bias of the market. Buyers are in control.
----------------------
To us, it signifies that buyers are back in control and ready to push the market up.
5156 and 5177 would be levels to watch on upside.
On the downside 5127/ 5137.
Please refer to weekend chart.
Also keep an eye on the ES at 1090 now and above our 1083.
-----------------
9.16
Bank Nifty battles 9475.
9475 is the POC from last months value. Also there exists another high value node at 9500 levels. Above these 2 prints, bank nifty should make a quick dash to 97xx levels.
-----------------
12.50
Sell bank Nifty
Cost : 9460
Sl : 9510
Target : 9385
--------------
15.04
Open Interest analysis :
16 lac puts have been added at 5100 and 12 lacs at 5200.
Against this, 560,000 calls have reduced at 5100 with only 178000 added at 5200 out of these.
The reduction at 5100 and the lack of addition of a similar quantity at 5200 speaks of the changing bias of the market. Buyers are in control.
----------------------
Friday, June 11, 2010
Profile Analysis
I hope regular visitors to the blog are getting an idea of how market profile is helping us to analyze the turns of the market and keeping us ahead in our assessment of order flow. I can think of no better example than the post made here yesterday which prevented us from going overboard with the many baby bulls who were talking 5200 today!
Today was a neutral day, good auction day which showed that buyers/ sellers were waiting for new information for the market's next move. We got two levels for our trading 5082/92 and 5127/37 which will help us in our profile analysis on Monday.
Let's look deeper into what the profile picture is telling us not just for Monday, but also the rest of the week and this expiry.
The chart is a 30 min profile of the Nifty future showing the low from the 25th of May when we had 4786 till today. I had mentioned yesterday that the value had not kept up with price, but if you see on the top right we had a balanced profile today with a close at the point of control, indicating that buyers and sellers agreed on price today and the market is in a state of balance and awaiting new information.There is lots the market can react to over the weekend, but if it does not find anything significant then we will open on Monday right here at 5113.
Another chart I want to put up is the weekly profile :
The blue dotted regions are the weekly profiles. The "b" shape shows you how shorts created early in the week/ last week were covered and the market moved higher.The base of the previous week is also a lot more heavier and the cumulative profile in pink shows the importance of this region between 4940 and 5040 as an important support region for the market going forward.There has been good value created in this zone.
I'll like to finish with the developing profile chart for this expiry. We had a look at this chart last here
Please understand that this is a developing chart and the final values can change
So far value is being created within the previous month's value.
Today was a neutral day, good auction day which showed that buyers/ sellers were waiting for new information for the market's next move. We got two levels for our trading 5082/92 and 5127/37 which will help us in our profile analysis on Monday.
Let's look deeper into what the profile picture is telling us not just for Monday, but also the rest of the week and this expiry.
The chart is a 30 min profile of the Nifty future showing the low from the 25th of May when we had 4786 till today. I had mentioned yesterday that the value had not kept up with price, but if you see on the top right we had a balanced profile today with a close at the point of control, indicating that buyers and sellers agreed on price today and the market is in a state of balance and awaiting new information.There is lots the market can react to over the weekend, but if it does not find anything significant then we will open on Monday right here at 5113.
Another chart I want to put up is the weekly profile :
The blue dotted regions are the weekly profiles. The "b" shape shows you how shorts created early in the week/ last week were covered and the market moved higher.The base of the previous week is also a lot more heavier and the cumulative profile in pink shows the importance of this region between 4940 and 5040 as an important support region for the market going forward.There has been good value created in this zone.
I'll like to finish with the developing profile chart for this expiry. We had a look at this chart last here
Please understand that this is a developing chart and the final values can change
So far value is being created within the previous month's value.
Update 11th June
75 minutes after the day open the high of the day is near the open print.
This open price needs to be monitored to see if buyers can push it above this level towards 5155.
On the lower side a break of 5107, should bring 5082.
Watch price volume reactions at both these points.
-----------------------
11.04
Short Nifty at 5127, Sl 5137. target 5107.
High Risk.
----------------
11.54
My stop taken in Nifty short call.
High so far has been 5138.
The stop was chosen based on prev highs at 5137 on 4th of June. Maybe I should have given it 2 points more...
I am not comfortable initiating intra-longs here, purely because of risk-reward.
------------------------
14.27
Open Interest analysis :
18.45 lacs added at 5200 call and 10.97 lacs added at 5000 put.
This seems to be the larger range where we will operate next week.
Looking at the Market Profile chart, we now have pivots at 5028 and 5177.
I will post the updated chart EOD.
------------------------------------
15.10
It's turned out to be a neutral day, with enough in it for the seller who sold closer to the previous high and the buyer who bought near the gap fill.
We were looking for a shorting opportunity per our end of day view yesterday where we mentioned that the opening print would have most of the day's highs. Buyers moved it nine points above that but were met with strong sellers.
Buyers stepped up near 5092 to lend the profile a balanced shape.
We'll keep tracking the moves between 5177 and 5025 next week.
Have a good weekend !
-----------------------------------
This open price needs to be monitored to see if buyers can push it above this level towards 5155.
On the lower side a break of 5107, should bring 5082.
Watch price volume reactions at both these points.
-----------------------
11.04
Short Nifty at 5127, Sl 5137. target 5107.
High Risk.
----------------
11.54
My stop taken in Nifty short call.
High so far has been 5138.
The stop was chosen based on prev highs at 5137 on 4th of June. Maybe I should have given it 2 points more...
I am not comfortable initiating intra-longs here, purely because of risk-reward.
------------------------
14.27
Open Interest analysis :
18.45 lacs added at 5200 call and 10.97 lacs added at 5000 put.
This seems to be the larger range where we will operate next week.
Looking at the Market Profile chart, we now have pivots at 5028 and 5177.
I will post the updated chart EOD.
------------------------------------
15.10
It's turned out to be a neutral day, with enough in it for the seller who sold closer to the previous high and the buyer who bought near the gap fill.
We were looking for a shorting opportunity per our end of day view yesterday where we mentioned that the opening print would have most of the day's highs. Buyers moved it nine points above that but were met with strong sellers.
Buyers stepped up near 5092 to lend the profile a balanced shape.
We'll keep tracking the moves between 5177 and 5025 next week.
Have a good weekend !
-----------------------------------
Thursday, June 10, 2010
End of day 10th June
A faulty internet connection robbed me of some precious blog-time from about noon and I apologize for the unanswered questions and my absence during an interesting move which unfolded.
Here's the profile chart of the Nifty Future
The profile picture is again "b" shaped which speaks about shorts being covered.This can be checked with the discount/ premium of the future price.
You can also see that the value did not catch up with the action in price.So all the young bulls, be cautious yet, though shorts have been covered there is no evidence of aggressive new longs being taken.
This will have to be validated though, at the open tomorrow where if we do not see a large up movement in the first 60-90 minutes, then the possibility of a side-ways move or a test to a previous reference point ( in our case 5065/78) increases.
Hope to catch you all in the morning.Some interesting comments about global markets in the comments section. Please keep them coming.
Here's the profile chart of the Nifty Future
The profile picture is again "b" shaped which speaks about shorts being covered.This can be checked with the discount/ premium of the future price.
You can also see that the value did not catch up with the action in price.So all the young bulls, be cautious yet, though shorts have been covered there is no evidence of aggressive new longs being taken.
This will have to be validated though, at the open tomorrow where if we do not see a large up movement in the first 60-90 minutes, then the possibility of a side-ways move or a test to a previous reference point ( in our case 5065/78) increases.
Hope to catch you all in the morning.Some interesting comments about global markets in the comments section. Please keep them coming.
Estimates for 10th June
I am surprised to see the ES trade around 1052 level currently down 20 points from the time of my last post. The weakness seems to have been in the energy sector with the finger pointing done at BP yesterday !!
Back to our markets, the price points which I have mentioned so frequently continue. So we have a seller at the top near 5055-5065 and a buyer below at 4955-4945. Something has got to give!
The value areas for today are 5015-4990-4967 for the Nifty and the bank Nifty they are 9190-9145-9100.
Happy trading.
-------------
10.35
Buyers have managed to push the Nifty up 20 points above Value high at 5035 which is the high of the day so far.
Even though the tape is bullish thus far, I personally expected a bit more from the buying camp.That and the known presence of the seller around the 5050 mark, makes this an extremely tricky market to trade.
Within that we may see 4975-5065 today.
Back to our markets, the price points which I have mentioned so frequently continue. So we have a seller at the top near 5055-5065 and a buyer below at 4955-4945. Something has got to give!
The value areas for today are 5015-4990-4967 for the Nifty and the bank Nifty they are 9190-9145-9100.
Happy trading.
-------------
10.35
Buyers have managed to push the Nifty up 20 points above Value high at 5035 which is the high of the day so far.
Even though the tape is bullish thus far, I personally expected a bit more from the buying camp.That and the known presence of the seller around the 5050 mark, makes this an extremely tricky market to trade.
Within that we may see 4975-5065 today.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
ES Update
Here is a chart of the Emini SPX futures also called ES.
The chart is an intra-day chart of the past 30 days of 60 minutes duration currently reflecting an ES value of 1072 and we are 3 hours from the close.
The volume profile on the right shows a high value zone at 1083 levels, which in my opinion is a decisive zone for the future of that market.
Quite simply put, if prices rise and stay above this level then we can see 1148 being printed again.
Though it's doubtful we will get past that level today, it is a level to keep in mind since we will be certainly looking at a test of our 5065 level tomorrow.
Bear in mind that just before we closed, smart money closed a lot of short positions in the last five minutes.
The green bars on the right testify.
The chart is an intra-day chart of the past 30 days of 60 minutes duration currently reflecting an ES value of 1072 and we are 3 hours from the close.
The volume profile on the right shows a high value zone at 1083 levels, which in my opinion is a decisive zone for the future of that market.
Quite simply put, if prices rise and stay above this level then we can see 1148 being printed again.
Though it's doubtful we will get past that level today, it is a level to keep in mind since we will be certainly looking at a test of our 5065 level tomorrow.
Bear in mind that just before we closed, smart money closed a lot of short positions in the last five minutes.
The green bars on the right testify.
Estimates for 9th June
Looks like a two-time frame market today.
Volatility will be there as the tussle between time-frames would continue to define value for the short term.
4923-4964-5004-5027/39 are the levels for the day.
--------------
9.24
Grasim:
1775 now.
Keep Sl at 1759 and exit the trade if it goes below this level.
-----------------
10.10
Above is a price profile chart of the Nifty Future.
Last week we had seen a breakdown till 4931 followed by value creation above 4955 and finally a breakout above 4983 which took the indices above 5065 levels.
The region between 4983 and 5065 is marked by Zone A in the chart.
From Early Monday morning right until the breakdown yesterday afternoon, we auctioned entirely in the zone A which is now represented by zone B in the chart.
This morning again we find ourselves at the base of these two zones.
I have notices the failure of the market to go above yesterday's value low which is at 4993 levels.
The auction which we called for in the afternoon post yesterday, thus restricts itself to these two levels mentioned.
Shorts are therefore at an advantage, as long as prices remain below 4993 and by extension our pivot at 5004.
-----------------
15.27
Hope everyone had a good day.
Value moved lower today and once again we saw the seller acting out at higher levels.
Points to a move downward in the coming sessions,
But everyday is a new day for us profilers and whilst the past is a good reference point, the order-flow of the moment is the most important !
See you later..
Volatility will be there as the tussle between time-frames would continue to define value for the short term.
4923-4964-5004-5027/39 are the levels for the day.
--------------
9.24
Grasim:
1775 now.
Keep Sl at 1759 and exit the trade if it goes below this level.
-----------------
10.10
Above is a price profile chart of the Nifty Future.
Last week we had seen a breakdown till 4931 followed by value creation above 4955 and finally a breakout above 4983 which took the indices above 5065 levels.
The region between 4983 and 5065 is marked by Zone A in the chart.
From Early Monday morning right until the breakdown yesterday afternoon, we auctioned entirely in the zone A which is now represented by zone B in the chart.
This morning again we find ourselves at the base of these two zones.
I have notices the failure of the market to go above yesterday's value low which is at 4993 levels.
The auction which we called for in the afternoon post yesterday, thus restricts itself to these two levels mentioned.
Shorts are therefore at an advantage, as long as prices remain below 4993 and by extension our pivot at 5004.
-----------------
15.27
Hope everyone had a good day.
Value moved lower today and once again we saw the seller acting out at higher levels.
Points to a move downward in the coming sessions,
But everyday is a new day for us profilers and whilst the past is a good reference point, the order-flow of the moment is the most important !
See you later..
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Estimates for 8th June
At the time of this post markets are trading at 5040 levels above our 5027 level mentioned yesterday.
This gives the market an even chance to hit 5070-5079 levels provided 5027 is maintained.
Looking lower, 5002 needs to be protected on the downside as maintained yesterday,
---------------------
10.53
Based on the activity so far, it does look like a normal day today .
---------------
13.29
Trade Alert : Short Bank Nifty
Cost : 9242
Sl : 9290
Target : 9190/ 9150.
------------------------
14.02
Bank Nifty at 9160.
Target 1 achieved.
30 mins...80 points.
Book partial profits
Hold rest with SL at cost.
--------------------------------
14.41
9042 now.
I'm booking out.
200 points in 70 mins.
----------------
14.55
Day high of nifty has been 5055 and in the Bank Nifty 9282.
The levels are very close to some levels we have seen earlier of inter-mediate term selling.5065Nifty and 9310 Bank Nifty are levels which we have spoken about for longs, very often on the blog.
Prices above these levels have failed to stand.
Profilers may make note of these levels for change of trend.
----------------------------
15.16
Grasim Update :
Grasim has again bounced off 1740.
Though it has remained above this level despite weakness, the lack of continuation and the worsening medium term picture has me worried.
Keep SL below 1740 for this trade.Let's see if we can exit at slightly higher prices.
-----------------------------
15.29
Hope everyone had a good session today.
This is becoming more and more a day trader's environment and the risks of carrying positional longs are increasing by the day.
But for the profiler, there never has been a better time to trade the markets as now!
'cos we make our decisions on Order Flow!
This gives the market an even chance to hit 5070-5079 levels provided 5027 is maintained.
Looking lower, 5002 needs to be protected on the downside as maintained yesterday,
---------------------
10.53
Based on the activity so far, it does look like a normal day today .
---------------
13.29
Trade Alert : Short Bank Nifty
Cost : 9242
Sl : 9290
Target : 9190/ 9150.
------------------------
14.02
Bank Nifty at 9160.
Target 1 achieved.
30 mins...80 points.
Book partial profits
Hold rest with SL at cost.
--------------------------------
14.41
9042 now.
I'm booking out.
200 points in 70 mins.
----------------
14.55
Day high of nifty has been 5055 and in the Bank Nifty 9282.
The levels are very close to some levels we have seen earlier of inter-mediate term selling.5065Nifty and 9310 Bank Nifty are levels which we have spoken about for longs, very often on the blog.
Prices above these levels have failed to stand.
Profilers may make note of these levels for change of trend.
----------------------------
15.16
Grasim Update :
Grasim has again bounced off 1740.
Though it has remained above this level despite weakness, the lack of continuation and the worsening medium term picture has me worried.
Keep SL below 1740 for this trade.Let's see if we can exit at slightly higher prices.
-----------------------------
15.29
Hope everyone had a good session today.
This is becoming more and more a day trader's environment and the risks of carrying positional longs are increasing by the day.
But for the profiler, there never has been a better time to trade the markets as now!
'cos we make our decisions on Order Flow!
Monday, June 7, 2010
Estimates for 7th June
It is a foregone conclusion since the Dow and the S&P closed 3 % lower that Asian Markets and even our NSE would open much lower.
What is important from a day trading and even a swing trading perspective is the market's reaction to these low prices.
Would dip-buyers emerge? or will it be sellers in control?
For the day time frame the levels to watch will be 4983 and 4964 NF on the downside and 5028 and 5061 NF on the upside.
Happy trading.
-------------
9.11
Bought Nifty at 5001 , sl 4982 target 5027
=====
10.35
An hour and a half after giving the trade, Nifty is still at 5001.
You can exit at cost if you are unsure.
I see a huge move developing today. If you have studied out weekend notes on open prices, you would know why....
--------------------------
10.50
Grasim Update:
The morning weakness took out our mental stop at 1761 for Grasim.
However if you have been watching you must have seen buyers step in immediately at the lower prices and take the stock up.
I remain a buyer in Grasim as a positional set-up.
Keep a stop below 1740 on an end-of-day basis.
----------------------------------------
13.24
Intraday bias shifts to the lower side slightly below 5002.
4982 maintains it's importance and is protected since morning.
Market should auction now between 5004 and 5025.
A successful trade above 5027 will bring 5045-5060, but looks difficult.
---------------
15.17
As expected at 13.24, markets are finishing the session by auctioning between 5004 and 5025.
For tomorrow only a trade above 5027 can bring 5060 and 5085.
On the downside the levels are as in the morning post.
See you later..
--------------
What is important from a day trading and even a swing trading perspective is the market's reaction to these low prices.
Would dip-buyers emerge? or will it be sellers in control?
For the day time frame the levels to watch will be 4983 and 4964 NF on the downside and 5028 and 5061 NF on the upside.
Happy trading.
-------------
9.11
Bought Nifty at 5001 , sl 4982 target 5027
=====
10.35
An hour and a half after giving the trade, Nifty is still at 5001.
You can exit at cost if you are unsure.
I see a huge move developing today. If you have studied out weekend notes on open prices, you would know why....
--------------------------
10.50
Grasim Update:
The morning weakness took out our mental stop at 1761 for Grasim.
However if you have been watching you must have seen buyers step in immediately at the lower prices and take the stock up.
I remain a buyer in Grasim as a positional set-up.
Keep a stop below 1740 on an end-of-day basis.
----------------------------------------
13.24
Intraday bias shifts to the lower side slightly below 5002.
4982 maintains it's importance and is protected since morning.
Market should auction now between 5004 and 5025.
A successful trade above 5027 will bring 5045-5060, but looks difficult.
---------------
15.17
As expected at 13.24, markets are finishing the session by auctioning between 5004 and 5025.
For tomorrow only a trade above 5027 can bring 5060 and 5085.
On the downside the levels are as in the morning post.
See you later..
--------------
Saturday, June 5, 2010
The Market Open
In continuation of our series of updates to the 'Market Profile classroom', we look at the importance of the Market Open today.
The open is a very critical aspect of the market Profile as it emphasizes the continuation or lack of continuation from the activity at the end of the previous trading day, even more so in the markets of the NSE which do not have a 24 hour trading system.
The open price will tell you of a shift in the assessment of the market action from the point of view of the Buyer or the Seller.
Let's look at the following chart :
The chart is a price profile chart of the Nifty Future from the 20th of May till yesterday.
Notice the points marked A, B and C.
Point A in the chart has an open much below the close and there is seen a continuation of the trend, so sellers were successful in keeping the larger trend from the previous day which was a down day.
Point B also has a preceding down day, but notice at the open the trend has changed.
Point C on the chart has a preceding up day and the trend continues up the next day.
The Important question to be asked is- looking at the open, how do we know that the trend is changing or remaining the same.
The answer lies in the activity right after the open, that is the reaction of buyers or sellers to the auction process or the new prices. As we have discussed already, the initial balance sets the tone for the day action where buyers and sellers try to establish the balance for the day.
Let's look deeper into the activity at/ after the open.
Normally a typical day in Market Profile is characterized by the value area and the day range which are the day extremes ie the high and the low.
Accordingly we can have two types of open depending on the price action of the previous day :
1) Open outside of the previous day range.
In this case the sentiment and the balance of the market has changed a lot and there can be large activity in either direction as buyers and sellers grapple with the new information that has just entered the market.Normally these kind of days are seen after a major news announcement in the overnight markets or on weekends.There is significant movement and risk-reward in such days as the open causes the equilibrium of the market to change
2) Open inside the previous day range
This kind of open has one subset.This would be characterized by an open in the value of the previous day or outside the value of the previous day.
a) Open within value : Here the market open is telling the trader that the market is in balance and buyers and sellers are agreeing on value. Prices usually in such cases move within value offering low risk-low reward opportunities, till the balance changes.
b) Open outside value : This represents a medium risk-medium reward opportunity for the trader as their is a dispute or contention over value in the market. Hence right after the market open you would find traders moving to or away from value creating good trading opportunities.
The open also creates the probability of the infamous 80 % rule or the value area rule to come into play.This rule has an 80 % chance of working as a favorable trade, that is 8 successful trades in every 10, hence one should look out aggressively for this opportunity.
The 80% Rule:
The 80% rule is easy to understand. It simply means, if the market opens above (or below) the value area and then gets in and stays in the value area for two consecutive half hour bars, it then has an 80% chance of filling the value area. With that in mind, a good strategy is to try and ride the market as it fills the value area. There are two scenarios to watch for:
a)If the market opens above the value area and then gets in the value area for two consecutive brackets, there is an 80% chance of the market filling the value area.
b)If the market opens below the value area and then gets in the value area for two consecutive brackets, there is an 80% chance of the market filling the value area.
A copy of this post is in the Forum under Market profile Classroom.
The open is a very critical aspect of the market Profile as it emphasizes the continuation or lack of continuation from the activity at the end of the previous trading day, even more so in the markets of the NSE which do not have a 24 hour trading system.
The open price will tell you of a shift in the assessment of the market action from the point of view of the Buyer or the Seller.
Let's look at the following chart :
The chart is a price profile chart of the Nifty Future from the 20th of May till yesterday.
Notice the points marked A, B and C.
Point A in the chart has an open much below the close and there is seen a continuation of the trend, so sellers were successful in keeping the larger trend from the previous day which was a down day.
Point B also has a preceding down day, but notice at the open the trend has changed.
Point C on the chart has a preceding up day and the trend continues up the next day.
The Important question to be asked is- looking at the open, how do we know that the trend is changing or remaining the same.
The answer lies in the activity right after the open, that is the reaction of buyers or sellers to the auction process or the new prices. As we have discussed already, the initial balance sets the tone for the day action where buyers and sellers try to establish the balance for the day.
Let's look deeper into the activity at/ after the open.
Normally a typical day in Market Profile is characterized by the value area and the day range which are the day extremes ie the high and the low.
Accordingly we can have two types of open depending on the price action of the previous day :
1) Open outside of the previous day range.
In this case the sentiment and the balance of the market has changed a lot and there can be large activity in either direction as buyers and sellers grapple with the new information that has just entered the market.Normally these kind of days are seen after a major news announcement in the overnight markets or on weekends.There is significant movement and risk-reward in such days as the open causes the equilibrium of the market to change
2) Open inside the previous day range
This kind of open has one subset.This would be characterized by an open in the value of the previous day or outside the value of the previous day.
a) Open within value : Here the market open is telling the trader that the market is in balance and buyers and sellers are agreeing on value. Prices usually in such cases move within value offering low risk-low reward opportunities, till the balance changes.
b) Open outside value : This represents a medium risk-medium reward opportunity for the trader as their is a dispute or contention over value in the market. Hence right after the market open you would find traders moving to or away from value creating good trading opportunities.
The open also creates the probability of the infamous 80 % rule or the value area rule to come into play.This rule has an 80 % chance of working as a favorable trade, that is 8 successful trades in every 10, hence one should look out aggressively for this opportunity.
The 80% Rule:
The 80% rule is easy to understand. It simply means, if the market opens above (or below) the value area and then gets in and stays in the value area for two consecutive half hour bars, it then has an 80% chance of filling the value area. With that in mind, a good strategy is to try and ride the market as it fills the value area. There are two scenarios to watch for:
a)If the market opens above the value area and then gets in the value area for two consecutive brackets, there is an 80% chance of the market filling the value area.
b)If the market opens below the value area and then gets in the value area for two consecutive brackets, there is an 80% chance of the market filling the value area.
A copy of this post is in the Forum under Market profile Classroom.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Estimates for 4th June
Nifty has opened around 5090 levels. Not much change in sentiment from yesterday afternoon.
Watch for the response of buyers to selling activity in the 5103-5108 range. Similar levels in the bank nifty are 9295-9305.
On the downside levels would be 5078 and 5060-65
-------------
10.30
Bank Nifty is above our reference level of 9310.I'm not sure of a long yet and am waiting for more cues from the market. Maybe a move above 9330 will tilt it for me..
Nifty is moving between 5072-5085. The selling has not become aggressive beyond the lower point.
-------------
12.39
Long BN at 9345, Sl 9325, target 9405
-------
SL 9305
---
14.24
BN has not moved to expectation.
I suggest bringing SL to cost at 9345 or scratch out here at 9360 for a 15 point gain.
---------------------
15.23
Hope everyone had a good trading day today.
In the morning, we saw classical initiative activity by sellers to 5070 levels and a strong responsive action by buyers from that level which took the future to 5134.
We knew of the presence of a seller there.
However looking ahead to next week, the buying will be severely tested again at 5177-5217 region where an intermediate term seller has been known to sell.
We'll see next week, how it resolves.
Have a good weekend.
-----------------------------------------------
Watch for the response of buyers to selling activity in the 5103-5108 range. Similar levels in the bank nifty are 9295-9305.
On the downside levels would be 5078 and 5060-65
-------------
10.30
Bank Nifty is above our reference level of 9310.I'm not sure of a long yet and am waiting for more cues from the market. Maybe a move above 9330 will tilt it for me..
Nifty is moving between 5072-5085. The selling has not become aggressive beyond the lower point.
-------------
12.39
Long BN at 9345, Sl 9325, target 9405
-------
SL 9305
---
14.24
BN has not moved to expectation.
I suggest bringing SL to cost at 9345 or scratch out here at 9360 for a 15 point gain.
---------------------
15.23
Hope everyone had a good trading day today.
In the morning, we saw classical initiative activity by sellers to 5070 levels and a strong responsive action by buyers from that level which took the future to 5134.
We knew of the presence of a seller there.
However looking ahead to next week, the buying will be severely tested again at 5177-5217 region where an intermediate term seller has been known to sell.
We'll see next week, how it resolves.
Have a good weekend.
-----------------------------------------------
Thursday, June 3, 2010
estimates for 3rd June.
The gap-up has definitely compounded matters and put us in that zone where it is decision time.
I'm watching the levels of 5065-5078 right here.
Let's see if the strength shown by buyers can take the market above that second level.
-------------------------
9.55
Early indications that the gap up has been accepted by players.
If these levels persist that one can take a long above 5079 with a stop below 5060.
---------
11.05
Starting to believe that this is a trend day in the making.
Buyers have been dominant and sellers have withered.
Crucially, we are now above our 5065 level and over 5078 as well, which was our second confirmation level.Somewhere else I had mentioned that the move above 5065 should take us to 5177 levels NF.Let's see..
All's well with the longs till 5078 and 5065 are maintained.
----------------
11.18
Hope you guys are going through the notes in the classroom.
Market profile is a forward looking indicator designed to keep you looking ahead and be better prepared for what to expect.
Unlike your traditional stocs and macd's which give you confirmation post movement of price, we believe in looking at what to expect and look at emerging or current action for confirmation.
Like today, MP is telling me that it may be a trend day, and I will look at the flow of prices to confirm that view.
--------------------------
12.13
Some reference levels I am watching before we hit 5177.
5121-5132 will be a point to part book longs.
Trend reverses below 5060-5065.
-------------------------
12.48
There seems to be a determined seller sitting at 5101 NF.
A tussle happening at that level for the past one hour.
If you are intra-long, bring your Sl to 5075.
---------------------
13.07
That last break down to 5080 NF has severely dented the possibility of today being a trend day.
Even though volume was not very high for the break,sellers have begun to assert themselves at this level of NF 5100.
The only way buyers can control the hourly trend now is to bring price above 5100.
Longs be careful below 5060.
-------------------------------
13.22
Description : Positional trade. Buy Grasim.
Cost : 1786
Sl : 1760
Target : 1876.
-----------------------
14.57
If you are as perplexed as me, as to why a perfectly looking trend day, froze right in the middle, then have a look at this chart of the Bank Nifty :
This is a simple price volume chart which shows the presence of the seller at 9300 F levels, on the right side of your chart.
Without support from the banks, no move is posiible in the Nifty.
It's always simple things like price and volume which tell your the story.
On the flip-side, should bank Nifty get above 9310 F, then a great move is possible
----------------------------------------
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Just Nifty
I have been surfing for the past thirty minutes on one of my favorite sites - Just Nifty catching up on market action there.Those of you not familiar with the site or it's owner Mr. Illango, I would advise you to check this place out : http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/.
Illango brings to the table a unique system based on hourly high-lows and EMA's and I noticed the levels he discusses are very close to the one's we have here at Vtrender.Infact my blogmate Viren is a regular at that site ( when he is trading) spending more time there than here ! Illango has built a wonderful trading community, which brings to you an assortment of views on market action, enough for you to capture the pulse of the market at any given minute.
So, I was going through one of his weekend posts, and I caught this line from here. Reproducing it for you here from the post A story that can change your life - "If you will spend an extra hour each day in study of your chosen field, you will be a national expert in that field in five years or less."
I want all of you budding profilers to take inspiration from this one line. Just imagine, an hour studying this concept will ensure that you have the key to your own financial freedom in less than 5 years! Enough said.
Turning to the market action of today, here is the chart :
What was going to be a neutral day turned around in the last 30 mins, and the single buying tail is evident in the last profile on the right of the chart.Buyers had shown their willingness to step up to action today and be counted. An open around 4954 was tribute to that. Subsequently a failed range extension on the downside led me to look at longs for the day action.Unfortunately two good long set-ups of ours did not materialize today.
Looking ahead, the market action makes me believe that short covering took the market up.If this is true, then the market would look to rotate back tomorrow back to the region of the break-out and test waters there again.
I'll join you tomorrow to catch the action as it unfolds.
Illango brings to the table a unique system based on hourly high-lows and EMA's and I noticed the levels he discusses are very close to the one's we have here at Vtrender.Infact my blogmate Viren is a regular at that site ( when he is trading) spending more time there than here ! Illango has built a wonderful trading community, which brings to you an assortment of views on market action, enough for you to capture the pulse of the market at any given minute.
So, I was going through one of his weekend posts, and I caught this line from here. Reproducing it for you here from the post A story that can change your life - "If you will spend an extra hour each day in study of your chosen field, you will be a national expert in that field in five years or less."
I want all of you budding profilers to take inspiration from this one line. Just imagine, an hour studying this concept will ensure that you have the key to your own financial freedom in less than 5 years! Enough said.
Turning to the market action of today, here is the chart :
What was going to be a neutral day turned around in the last 30 mins, and the single buying tail is evident in the last profile on the right of the chart.Buyers had shown their willingness to step up to action today and be counted. An open around 4954 was tribute to that. Subsequently a failed range extension on the downside led me to look at longs for the day action.Unfortunately two good long set-ups of ours did not materialize today.
Looking ahead, the market action makes me believe that short covering took the market up.If this is true, then the market would look to rotate back tomorrow back to the region of the break-out and test waters there again.
I'll join you tomorrow to catch the action as it unfolds.
Estimates for 2nd June.
The morning open of 4955 against a close below it, shows the conviction of bulls once again to hold the level.
Confirmation of this will be a trade above 4967.
The opportunities to look for shorts may come further up at 5004-5017 levels or below yesterday's lows.
We have seen the ability of the seller to hold once again the 5065 levels. Till that is overcome the seller has the control over the short term trend.
Trade accordingly.
--------
9.38
Trade Alert : bank Nifty
Cost : 9005
Sl : 8965
Target : 9086
----------------
10.10
Scratch out of bank Nifty trade here at 9000.
We will re-enter later.
----------------
10.49
It's a tough call at these levels to be short.Though the trend is with you, the risk reward does not favor a lot.
I see a stop at 4978 NF levels and at 5004NF +/-.
On the downside 4923 and 4882 can be your targets.
So it is equidistant and can swing either sides.
At the moment buyers have shown their hand and are willing to move the market up.
--------------------------------
10.53
My methodology of trading revolves around bringing risk-reward in my favor.More reward than risk.
You have to be patient and let the market give you the opportunities.Don't try to trade everyday, just becuase the market is open. Look for good set-ups and swing for the boundaries when you see one !
The markets are always there ! The people in the market change!
--------------------------
12.25
Trade Alert : Nifty Fut
Cost : above 4975
Sl : 4960
Target : 4998
--------------
12.38
Stop at 4960 taken. make an exit.
---------------
12.41
range extensions on both sides have failed so far.
Markets trying to establish value here.Let's see how the tussle resolves.
--------------------
13.58
Here is a consolidated volume profile chart of the past few trading sessions.
I had mentioned in a previous post yesterday, that the market may try to renegotiate value around the 4954 levels.
This is what is happening today as can be seen in the thickening profile in the lower part of the chart.
What are the inferences we can draw from this chart ?
Well it depends on how buyers and sellers agree on value here.
If the buyer thinks that the prices are undervalued here, he will quickly take it to 5023 levels.
On the other hand the seller will have a role to play below 4923 levels.
As an astute market profiler, you have to feel your way around these zones and let the market decide the plan of action.Your ability to recognise the developing profile will result in profitable trades for you.
------------------
Tuesday, June 1, 2010
Intraday update
Here is the updated version of the chart I posted at 11.00 am this morning.
In an earlier post I had mentioned that buyers would step in to defend the levels around 4954-4967.
Notice the rotation taking place here. The Low so far is 4958.
The afternoon action has been fast and furious, but we were prepared from morning for this move to come in the afternoon session. Though I will be honest to admit that I personally didn't capitalise on it as much as expected.
Looking ahead, Buyers need to hold 4954 levels. Also there is a good opportunity of getting up to short the market again at 4990-5004 levels if we get there again.
Let price and volume dictate that.
----------------------
14.35
Some more levels on the downside are 4883 and 4848.
---------------
Estimates for 1st June
Welcome all to the first trading day of a new month. Our new series of June is also a day old !
What kind of a trading day we saw yesterday : a neutral day, which gives no forward implications.A neutral day can also close at one of the day extremes.
Coming to today's action, I had a feeling in my last post yesterday that the last hour an hour action was designed to catch some technical analysts on the wrong foot. That trick does not work with the student of profile.
We may see a narrow range again in the morning session and I'm expecting this to break only in the second session of the day.
Trade well !
-------------------------
9.55
Value area low is 5022 and Value area high is 5051.Point of control is 5037.
Market is bound btw these levels, so to speak.
--------------------------------
11.00
I want to add 2 more ref levels besides the 5004 and the 5065 levels given.
These are 4990 and 5079. All NF.
These represent the outer ranges of the short term bracket, we currently find ourselves in.
-----------------
11.50
Here is a price profile chart of the Nifty future for the past 4 sessions.
As you can see, Nifty is currently establishing value in the lower part of yesterday's profile.
The balance of the profile shows the absence of short/ inter mediate term players from the market, who are letting the market churn to negotiate value.
However if you look further, you can see tell-tale signs of selling near our 5065 levels.
This along with the fact that we are moving value downwards, leads me to believe that we will possibly move south towards 4955-4967 levels, where there may be a re-negotiation of value.
If I am right about this, then the market should not get above 5078 NF.
-------------------
12.35
Trade Alert : sell Bank Nifty
Cost : 9164
Sl : 9200
Target : 9087.
----------------
12.55
Bank Nifty at 9087.
Book out.
---------------------
13.23
We are already at the 4955-4967 levels projected in the chart at 11.50.
I chose to go with the Bank Nifty sell, rather than Nifty but it was the same trade.
Watch for buyers to step up here and rebuild value.
I will post updated chart later.
--------------------------------------
What kind of a trading day we saw yesterday : a neutral day, which gives no forward implications.A neutral day can also close at one of the day extremes.
Coming to today's action, I had a feeling in my last post yesterday that the last hour an hour action was designed to catch some technical analysts on the wrong foot. That trick does not work with the student of profile.
We may see a narrow range again in the morning session and I'm expecting this to break only in the second session of the day.
Trade well !
-------------------------
9.55
Value area low is 5022 and Value area high is 5051.Point of control is 5037.
Market is bound btw these levels, so to speak.
--------------------------------
11.00
I want to add 2 more ref levels besides the 5004 and the 5065 levels given.
These are 4990 and 5079. All NF.
These represent the outer ranges of the short term bracket, we currently find ourselves in.
-----------------
11.50
Here is a price profile chart of the Nifty future for the past 4 sessions.
As you can see, Nifty is currently establishing value in the lower part of yesterday's profile.
The balance of the profile shows the absence of short/ inter mediate term players from the market, who are letting the market churn to negotiate value.
However if you look further, you can see tell-tale signs of selling near our 5065 levels.
This along with the fact that we are moving value downwards, leads me to believe that we will possibly move south towards 4955-4967 levels, where there may be a re-negotiation of value.
If I am right about this, then the market should not get above 5078 NF.
-------------------
12.35
Trade Alert : sell Bank Nifty
Cost : 9164
Sl : 9200
Target : 9087.
----------------
12.55
Bank Nifty at 9087.
Book out.
---------------------
13.23
We are already at the 4955-4967 levels projected in the chart at 11.50.
I chose to go with the Bank Nifty sell, rather than Nifty but it was the same trade.
Watch for buyers to step up here and rebuild value.
I will post updated chart later.
--------------------------------------
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