Thursday, November 4, 2010

Options/futures data for 3rd Nov (EOD)

On Fed's $600B QE2 announcement:
The US stock markets seem to be acting as if "Heads I Win, Tails you Lose" - If Economic indicators improve, stocks rally and if economic indicators worsen, stocks rally harder - because FED will announce more QE! Anyway, all I can say that US stock market has had a "lost decade" and its headed for another lost decade if FED keeps doing such QE and not let the bad banks/financial institution fail and take the bitter pill once to clean up the mess.
The first QE announced in Feb 2009n has not resulted any meaningful recovery in economy or jobs for main street, it has only helped Wall Street. Can't expect anything more from QE2

Back to Nifty options-

Summary:
1. The stand out for the last 3 days is the massive put addition at 6200. It has reached 20L in last 3 sessions. Quite a bit of 6100PEs have also been written in last 3 days. All this is pointing to only one direction - UP! But this trend of put writing should continue for this to give meaningful rally
2. 6200 remains an intermediate resistance but not a strong one. 6300 is the resistance as of now with 47L 6300CEs. The interesting thing is writers are scared write calls at 6300 now. The calls are being written only at 6400/6500.
3. Strong support at 6000 and intermediate support at 6100 remain
4. PCR has inched up 1.33 due to massive put writing at 6200/6100 - So we seem to witnessing the trend of September where puts were being written even before a level was conquered. 


Nifty Futures:
2.48Cr OI down 0.7% -- cautious before the FED announcement.


Banknifty Futures:
17L OI down 1.1%

2 comments:

r m said...

Thanks Girish!

Viren said...

Adding to what Girish says, the mkt will expect more n more from the FED.

this should put the dollar on tgt for 65 which means gold up, interest rates up n stock mkt up.

Once QE eases, the mkt will get a reversal and possibly a big bear mkt should unfold.