Well the selling began in earnest at the open itself and a trip to the lows at 5935 was made, before the market started auctioning again with horizontal development enough to give the market a balanced look till 2.45 pm.At that point with 45 minutes for the session and the week to end, I was seriously thinking that the downtrend would be ending as we looked like putting a neutral day at the swing lows of the move.
The aggressive selling which followed has put the market with a real chance of hitting 5765-5750 NF levels.
The only hope for longs would be a change of sentiment over the weekend and a rally at the open to discard this move late in the day.
Looks tough but not impossible. 5925-5937 will hold the cue on Monday morning if we do get back over there.
The Bank Nifty got resisted at the POC all day today in it's rally attempt ( the Nifty stayed below VAL ).
The lows of October were visited by the Bank Nifty before it closed around 80 points up from there.The Nifty closed below October Lows.
In itself it has sent out a message.
The picture will be clear on Monday Morning.
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7 comments:
I do believe there can be a 100 pts. bounce UP - this is 3rd or 4th time in last fortnight i guess, NF has had a fall more than 100 pts in a day - also last diwali saw a 500 pts fall, this time also 500 pts are almost done.....so let us c....
FII, DII, retail data is all neutral or positive for today. Wonder who sold today to cause such a steep fall.
Janak - I think last Diwali the high to low was somewhere in the range around 5180-4560. That would be 620 points.
Now we have to look at September Monthly VAL for support. The price profile and volume profile show 5786 & 5804 for each of them. That should be hopefully the worst for this swing down.
Already FnO stocks look 'smashed down' -- Its too tempting to buy some of them but don't want to try catching a proverbial falling knife.
No GD - I think last diwali, there was a very strong bounce from 4800 level if I am not wrong....also, we do not have a genuine reason even for a fall we saw except profit-booking by FIIs .....anyway, let us see how it goes....today, all day the sentiment was bearish....there was nothing wrong technically in the trade calls given in VT2 room....but when he sentiment is bearish, all TA go for a toss....
FII net + 367 Cr
DII net + 300 Cr
"In itself it has sent out a message.
The picture will be clear on Monday Morning..."
Can you elaborate/
Ashish/Rajeev,
Take a look at the bigger picture. Here are the is FII investment numbers:
1. Entire 2010 - 28500Cr
2. Nov (Till Thursday) - +3800Cr
Even during the entire downfall from 6300-5920s (till Thursday), they have only sold a maximum of 150Cr on one day. That's totally peanuts!
In the bigger picture - FIIs have no choice but to invest in countries like Brazil, China, India, Russia, that are showing positive GDP growth while their own countries have negative or very little GDP growth
They tend to hedge the investments in cash market with shorts in FnO, so that they are prepared for uncertainties or Financial shocks. When market corrects they probably cash out their derivatives shorts and buy more stocks that have become cheaper because dumb folks are selling!
In May 2010 when market tanked from 5400 to 4780 (A 600+ point downmove), they sold only 2000Cr.
And during rise from 4800-6300+ they have bought 15000Cr. So they probably seem to have longer term view that MF investors are not having.
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