Thursday, August 5, 2010

Estimates for 5th aug

Good Morning all.

Markets have opened above value and at the top of their range of yesterday.

Value high at 5442 should serve as a support ( if reached) and 5485 is a ref level to watch for hourly momentum.

Globally, we are watching copper move higher and the yen lower to further document risk acceptance in equities. Catch viren's post here for more details.

It's been a dip buyer's environment for the past three months, with yesterday's grind and bump up in the close giving further evidence.

On the BN watch if 10420 holds for further up moves.

Values : 5443-5433-5424 in the Nifty and 10419-10397-10376 in the BN.

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Chart of AUD/ JPY from last week :

Viren had posted this chart over the weekend. Here is the updated chart as of Now.



Notice the sharp rise at 2.20 IST yesterday.
Does it ring a bell?
All major markets closed up yesterday

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13.35

yes it is very stock specific action.

It's a pity we lost out on ACC, but the stock looks to be balancing and ready to run higher.

Bharat forge is another one ready to run.

SBI, tata motors, hcl tech, infy great stories.

Activity in IT sector. Energy holding on.

It's a market of stocks..

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33 comments:

Unknown said...

GM Shai & All.

So below 10420, can i go short in BN?

Shai said...

Guggu,

SBI is very strong, will keep driving BN higher.

Look for opportunities to get long instead, with 10420 as a ref line .

manu said...

hi all

shai still holding RIL?

Shai said...

yes Manu,

Still holding. From a tech perspective, nothing's changed. it's not done a lot of good, but no damage also. Besides, energy is still dip-buy.

INDITRADER said...

Gm Shai,
I have a short at yesterday Eod @ 5464
Should I hold it or book?
I also have a -ve bias on index.

Shai said...

Musti,

Can you elaborate on your -ve bias? What were your reasons for taking a short call?

--
Till we get below 5442, I think longs are safe.

INDITRADER said...

Shai firstly your level of 5465 Nf not closing above it.
Secondly Ad ration in nf also not much favouring upside
Third Nf is trading in dis. since last two days
inspite of near to new high.

Janak said...

Shai, GM.
Asia has started entering RED zone....will this affect India? can an intrady short position be taken in NF?

Shai said...

ACC fut looking good, currently above value high.

Buy 813.5, sl 808, tgt 821, 828

Shai said...

Janak,

NF is strong. generally above value and at prev day highs, control is with the buying camp.

But you may take a small position below 60 for 44.

GK said...

Shai,

From Viren's post and what you are saying, should i interpret that 5444 odd is likely, but we would like to wait for 5460 to break?

Shai said...

Musti,

Good argument and strong logic. good feedback too.

Can we flip the coin and look the other side :

NF not going below 5419.
a/d favoring downside, but not coming.
Nf in disc, but still going up?

My conclusion, let's stay with price and use value areas to confirm direction.

Shai said...

Yes Gk.

Below 5460, that can be tested again.

But I am also watching for an auction above 5485 in the hourly to give confirmation of the move yesterday.

A close above 5465 NF will be extremely good today.

POWERTRADE said...

Good Morning shai and all sorry for the late appearence as was stuck up in ranins in gujarat !!!

Shai said...

Welcome back Powertrade.Lots happening in Guj besides the rains? :D .

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Janak had given a very good call on kotakbank yesterday.835 now.

r m said...

Good Morning all!

POWERTRADE said...

Shai Only one thing is good for me that still i am holding on bank nifty .... may the rains were a blessing in disguise !!!

Janak said...

i think bank stocks look saturated today....a downward slide beginning?

Shai said...

Congrats powertrade.

It's really been a amazing 1000 point rally in the BN.

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AUD/JPY updated chart in above post.

POWERTRADE said...

Year 2010 seems to be the year for banks as earlier we saw the It sector and Reality sector rally in early 2000

Shai said...

ACC fut sl hit.

make an exit.

Shai said...

Market certainly wants to go up.

5500 is on the cards.

POWERTRADE said...

True Shai.... Looking to tthe chart patterns on daily scale .... Me may have a sharp run in the end session....I am waiting for the BN odd target of 10580---10680--10800 may not be today but in few days .... Would keep a SL just below 10300

POWERTRADE said...

currently not trading in Nifty reason being a very strict range bound movement ....

Shai said...

yes it is very stock specific action.

It's a pity we lost out on ACC, but the stock looks to be balancing and ready to run higher.

Bharat forge is another one ready to run.

SBI, tata motors, hcl tech, infy great stories.

Activity in IT sector. Energy holding on.

It's a market of stocks..

GK said...

After 17 days of consolidation...breakout but no follow up...does not look good

bizagra said...

Dear Shai, Reliance SL saved by 20 paisa till now.

Sukanya said...

Sai,
Reliance was almost touching our SL 1005 cash, I am holding 1020 call, will keep holding? Thanks.

Shai said...

Yes if it breaks, it goes another 20 points lower to 983.

Shai said...

hold reliance. don't exit

Shai said...

Normal day as far as profile goes.

Selling at the close needs to be validated at the open.

value moving higher implies buyer still in control.

r m said...

Bye Shai & friends.

Shai said...

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New post.

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