Good Morning All.
Markets have opened the new moth of August near value high from friday.
5407-5398-5388 are the value areas and if we see an auction above 5407, then 5420 and 5435 become immediate targets.
10185-10159-10134 are the value areas for the bank nifty. It is incidentally well above 10210 which was a ref level.The inside day on friday also pointed to a large move in the BN today. Use value high at 10185 to manage risk on the index.
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Monday, August 2, 2010
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48 comments:
Good Morning Shai & friends!
Good morning Shai & All! Nifty is above the value area, can i look to go long?
GM RM, Guggu,
Buy only above 5411. Add above 5422.or you can trade the 10 points.
Hi Shai,
Posted VA values are based on "Price profile" or "Volume Profle" parameter setting of AFL?
Bose
Chandra,
These are price profile values.
Generally on rotational days, such as the one on friday, price and volume profile values are the same.
However, if we have a sharp move intra-day, then volume value areas are more actionable.
Gm Shai,
Rather going long @ 5411 can we go short with sl 5423?
This trade for 15-20 points?
Hi Shai,
Thans for your response.
If am still confused, when to refer Price Profile or Volume profile or which day? Please give some elaboration for better understanding.
Bose
Musti,
5435 is a high vol node and above 5421 it is a certainty.
We have not seen a lot of aggressive selling by sellers in the first hour. Buyers are holding on to the gains. Action is near VAH. So longs above 5411 look good.
Thx Shai I will look over these levels.
Hi Sahi
Pls suggest, how I can setting in parameter in Amibroker for Volme profile monthly and weekly charts
Shai:
If you have time can you check RCOM; can i go short with 184 SL?
GM Shai and buddies!
This gap up is exactly what I feared and closed my short at 5375 on Friday.
But there are some bearish signs from options side will post in a minute.
What should be my SL for long taken at 5412
Been pretty busy today with work & meetings. Options data from Friday EOD --
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_xQfPkpQXjMc/TFUhwh6qepI/AAAAAAAAArY/7ZehNT7__FM/s1600/OI_analysis.GIF
1. From the Options OI GIF its clear that - current resistance is 5500 with 64L OI and 5300 support with 75L OI
2. What's bad is the shameless addition of 8L to 12L Calls at 5600/5500/5400 on the very first day of the series. Bad boys seem to be very eager to write those calls.
There are lots of lower level puts added in last two days @5100/5000/4900 - I presume its just hedging. But if market turns south - need to watch for further action at lower level puts.
GM all.
Nifty your Sl would be POC at 5398.
shai,
Holding 5415 very well. Long here ?
Hi Viren:
Can u plz refer to my earlier post of Rcom, can i take a short call on this?
Thanks Viren. Today's was my first comment after having been a silent observer for a while now.
Guggu,
Rcom seems to be balancing after a small downtrend. I feel it can move to 184 and 188 from here.
Golfdude,
Yes above 5411, we look good for longs.
But upside is capped till 5435, our previous game changer is not taken out.
We dropped from there 1 day before expiry, so it will be interesting to see responsive sellers are present there again?
As Viren suggested, POC is a good sl.
thanx Shai!
We are above value high, but not making much progress above 5421 and then 5435.
Sellers are absent, but will be keen to see if they show up near 5435.
Momentum is also missing, so take profits if you get 10-15 points.
Myself and Viren will be out for till 2.30.
Now a comfortable cross of dh will lead nifty towards vpoc 5433 and then 5450
Shai,
Bought 2 lots at 5412.
Booked out one lot at 5423, holding other at 5408.hope we get 5435.
Rajeev,
Shai has indicated 5435 in the morning at 9.11.
I got 4 lots at 5408, based on his morning post.
Rajshri,
Good going. I think you should sell all here at 5430 and retire for the day :) .
Thanks rajeev.
Sold at 5430.
I used to be very scared of trading earlier, but now after Vtrender, no fear.
Believe in Shai, his levels and his work.
5433 is the day high.
The profile has developed well above previous value and unless we have a mini crash between now and close, we are in for more highs in the next few sessions.
5407 is ref line for the close today.
BN broke above 10210 at the open and has had a very good trend day.
10335 now.
Sir
can short bank nifty @10235???
We seem to be crashing. 5415 now. Will it close above 5420 ?
Sunil,
It is high risk, Sl will be 10380.
Hi Shai,
When to take Price profile or Volume profile levels as VA values for next day s trading reference? Please elaborate, I was confused with your earlier info.
Bose
Chandra,
On a day like today the value areas for both will be similar,
But if you get a one sided 30-40 point intra move, then first look at VP.
Hi Shai,
Thanks
Bose (Chandrabose)
Bye Shai, Viren & friends!
5440.
Open should be above 5435 tomorrow to knock out 5465 next.
Shai,
you know today's EOD VAH/POC/VAL ?
Thanks
Shai,
I've shorted Bank NIFTY at 10379, today's close was at 10363 - should i hold on to my short?
I've also shorted BOI future at 436.30.......
The market has moved aabout 80 points in the past 20 days, but it is amazing to see these market profile levels come again and again into play.
5367-5411-5466. It's just amazing.
Thank you guys.
Golfdude,
5431-5421-5411.
Janak,
What were your reasons to go short on both?
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BOI looks to have long liquidations in the later part of the day today. You will get leverage on you call below 431 tomorrow.
You'll win on the BN futures, if it auctions below 10336 tomorrow.Hope you are not "all in" and have a contingency plan to manage or average tomorrow morning.
sir
I have also taken short in BN at 10335 should i exit tom or average if average then at what level????
Dear Shai,
Thanks for your response. My reasons for SHORTING-
1). BN - not based on any tech. analyis but on an assumption that in one day if it climbs 250 points than most likely it will retreat at-least 50-100 points on next day unless the market continues a non-stop rally (which happens not so frequently)
2). BOI Futures - simply because, i have been following this stock since last 2 months and it has rallied non-stop from 311 to 436 - also, today it has shot up by more than 30 rs. - which is first in last 2 months, at the most it has jumped 10-12 rs. in a day - so again it is based on an assumption that tomorrow it will retreat - but since both these are based on assumptions and based on my study of the behaviour of prices, i thought it would be nice to have a technical view from u :-)
Sunil,
We had a strong trend day yesterday and it is always wrong to fight a strong trend.
Try to short here at 10439 if you want to average.
But still risky.
Janak,
Your logic is right, but in the battle between price and logic it always is price which wins.
Wait for price to show it's hand, don't pre-empt it.
wish you the best for your positions.
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