"I will not be surprised if we get a ranged movement in the next two days - where option premium gets killed."
This is what I wrote in Friday notes. Most of us at the trading room wrote some options or the other. Hope you could get benefit out of it. My notes:
This is what I wrote in Friday notes. Most of us at the trading room wrote some options or the other. Hope you could get benefit out of it. My notes:
- Yesterday is the lowest volume day of the series for the FII. This was evident with the snail paced movement of the index during trading hours.
- The NF OI has decreased by 1.8L contracts - nothing changed much there.
- The PCR has increased to 1.20. The increase in Put volumes indicating the bearish sentiment increasing.
- I hope you have noted the fight between buyers and sellers around the 5046 number, that I have written in the last note.
- The most interesting part of yesterday data has been the average price of FII OI. It has significantly reduced from 5046 to 4989. It is a bit perplexing - considering the low volumes of yesterday. I have to admit that I could not figure this out correctly. From my present understanding, FII have covered some shorts from the top. Let me illustrate my thinking with a small example. Suppose, I am long from 4800 with 5 contracts and short from 5200 with 5 contracts. My OI is 10 contracts and average value is 5000. Suppose, I close 2 short contracts. Now, my OI is 8 contracts and average value is 4950. You can see that the average OI value has got down considerably. Extending this example, I am deducing that FII have closed some shorts yesterday. I may be wrong.
- So, now the SAR figure changes from 5046 to 4989. We will keep tracking this number. Let us look forward to what clues it will provide us for trading.
- You can get the entire datasheet here.
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3 comments:
good write-up kris.
I have a request for you, vinod, shai
to mention "probable trades" like the ones which were there all day from 5020
NF level.....shai, can such trades be mentioned in a separate tab? I would be
very happy if VT2 gives more importance
to CF trades, bounce-trades, probable
option trades......the idea is to prepare VT members psychologically so
strong that no matter what kind of market, no matter what kind of global clues, we are always having a choice to trade the mkt with CF trades, bounce trades, 80%, gap fill trades.....
I would be really happy if we can have such probable scenarios ready before the mkt. opens...if that is possible..
Kris
Fantastic write up this one. You have got it bang on point. SAR everday changes quite dramatically and you have given the bestest possible example. I have also inferred only below 4980 or above 5070 will nifty be weak/strong today. Now this is 80 points difference. So we look for support at 4980 in case of gap down or if median point 5020 provides support work our way up to 5045-5070 like yesterday. I am extremely happy for you Kris and the way you enlighten like Shai, RM, GD, Janak :)
Regards
Vinod
Thanks Kris, amazing is the only world I can think of. :)
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