FnO Datasheet 20-09-2011

My notes:

1. For all the mega rally that we have today, FII have net bought 100 crore today. Definitely does not look like an FII induced rally. Even if they have, they have day traded today. Further, they are reading the notes here daily, and planned to such a degree that, they have closed sufficient shorts and created approximately same number of longs, so that the OI does not change much. :)
2. Equity Buying is still on very low volumes. In fact today, DII have net sold equities. So as such, this rally is induced in the FnO Segment and continues to stay so. Till this is backed up by significant equity buying, please be careful with your positional longs.
3. PCR has decreased slightly to 1.18. The underlying theme for the entire day has been the Put writing at will and Call Covering in panic. Most notable is the addition of 45L addition of OI at 5000,5100,5200PE. 12L addition of OI at 5200PE, when NF closed around 5158 is a point of concern. Bullishness bordering foolishness, and is causing some uneasiness in me. :) In fact there is not much resistance to bull rally in any of the upper strikes, so, if this is a genuine rally, look forward to a 5400+ expiry. 
4. Remember trading is a game played on perceptions. I have been looking at various forums and blogs for the last couple of hours to find how we have a genuine breakout today - and - a new high - targets of 5300-5700-7000 targets are flying around. The Desi MO is at a healthy 56. So, people are reasonably bullish. But forgive me for staying sober. NF has closed at 5157 today. On 8th Sep, NF has closed at 5155. So, after 12 days of trading we have a mega breakout of 2 points. Reason to be really bullish. :) We have not even scaled the 8th Sep day high of 5174. As I said in my earlier notes, I will be viewing all rallies with suspicion till they convincingly cross 5174.
5. NF shorts ran for cover today. Approximately 8L OI has decreased. It is interesting to compare the OI of 8th Sep and today - the days where NF closed the same. On 8th, we have 2.6 crore OI and today we have 2.2 crore. So, approximately 40L contracts - around 25% shorts have covered in the mean time. At the same time, FII have reduced their OI from 6.9L to 6.3L contracts - around 60K contracts which is 10%.
6. Now, where do we go from here? the option table represents a completely bullish picture. No CE writing is large enough to hold and 5000PE at a whopping 95L OI. Has the NAV management started? If it is - may be we have done 20% of the rally - we get around 500 points in the last 10 days of trading at quarter end. One silly question that has been lingering for the last hour or so is... Have we made a double top on 8th Sep and today?
7. The average price of FII OI has changed to 5104 today. So that becomes our SAR. Interestingly, on 8th Sep, the average OI price was 5131. Globe is rallying before the key event of FOMC. Rain might be around. Have a rain coat with you. 
8. You can find the entire data sheet here.