FnO Datasheet 09-09-2011

Hope you were on the right side. My notes:

1. What we have yesterday is a hollow correction. The volumes are not great - either in the FnO segment or in the equity segment. FII have net sold 23K contracts, but their OI has decreased by 6K contracts. There are two ways of looking at this - We can consider the correction to be an attempt to flush out weak longs. Alternatively, we can consider this to be just teaser. Our Bar-O-Meter 4850-4900 zone will provide the correct answer.
2. PCR has slightly increased from 1.07 to 1.11. Slightly surprising because with a fall, generally PCR has to decrease. However, as the fall is on low volumes, nothing much to think about it.
3. When you look at individual strikes - 4900PE and 5000PE have decreased OI by 6L and 4L contracts. Looks a sign of weak bulls exiting. The more important factor is the call writing happening at 5100CE and 5200CE at 10L contracts each. Is it the dumb bears or smart money will decide the future course of action for the series.
4. There has been 3.5L contract reduction in NF OI - negligible volumes. So, both sides are confident of future course of action. Monday might provide further clues, as 5000PE and 5100CE writers react when NF approaches.
5. Desi MO reduced slightly to 75 - but still in the high end to be careful on the long side.
6. Even the equity selling is very minimal - FII selling just enough to produce the fall - and DII did not reveal their hand at all.
7. NF was at 5003 on 30th August. Yesterday NF closed at 5052. So, a rally of just 50 points with very high volatility.During this time, NF OI has increased by 30L and FII OI has increased by 1.8L contracts.  In general, a price increase with OI increase is generally considered longs entering into the system. So, if our Bar-O-Meter is protected, playing the long side might give handsome returns.
8. Where do we go from here? Considering the high OI accumulation at 4900PE and 5000PE, there might be a visit there to see how they react. Their reaction more or less determines the series outcome. If we do get into the 4800's - we may be in for some steep correction. This is September, and quarterly adjustments of NAV's etc. is an important aspect. So, unless global cues present some really bleak picture, we may have a green series. 
9. You can find the entire datasheet here.