The fairest price is always a converging developing point of control and a vwap which is a volume weighted average price.
When the two are together, it generally means that buyers and sellers shared honours for the series.
Have a look :
With 2 full sessions to go, the market is conveniently placed.
In the trading room, we have noted the disconnect of one trading session with the next .
The market it seems is playing out in three parts, with a session in the morning from 9.15 to 12.30 , then Europe decides the moves between 12.30 to 3.30 and finally the traders of the US decide the next day's open by playing out from 3.30 pm to 9.15 the next day.
As you can see it's kind of hazardous for me to talk about what will happen 2 sessions from now.
But if you are one better, I invite you to take a guess on the expected series close.
... And if you can do a good job out of it, the closest person will get one full month of Vtrender Live- Our Trading room absolutely for free from the coming Monday !!
If you are an existing subscriber and you nail it, you get for your self one month of credit into your next billing cycle.
The rules are simple- There are only 2.
a) Just call out the series close for September
b) You need to do it before 12.00 noon on Thursday 29/09/11.
You can either post your view here or send a mail to vtrender@gmail.com.
Start thinking...
Posts
27 comments:
My guess is around about 4950..
@Shai
The huge negative divergence between price and cumulative delta --> is it significant?
The two points I am comparing are the close from 9/27 and the last time we were at 4980 area.
I am tempted to say that this series will close under 4700. Anyway I will post the actual estimate around the time deadline you have.
I think a series close between 5050 and 5100 is more likely.
This is the 16th session inside a bracketed market and trend reverses almost every alternate day. Up moves are with very low volume and down moves have good volume but dont see follow up action below the 4800 mark.
sir 5034 from me, as it is the lower end of that small range and gap down.
Expecting a Deep Cut in two days and Expiry near the odd 4720 levels or below it
MLMT,
I don't place a lot of importance to divergences.It's not a part of my trading set-ups.
Linkon,
Time wise we have spent more time above 5000. That low volume pocket between 5060 and 5110 is a likely auction zone especially if IB gets us closer there.
But I agree with you on the disconnect....
I'm counting it as 6 sessions to the close of the series... :).
Power trade, Nilesh, Life's funny.
Noted.
DEAR Shai, my guess is it will close series around 4650.
Thanks
It is 2:40pm here in NY.. and US mkts have put in a major top for a good 15 to 20% downside from here... barring any govt intervention of course...
My view 5150
Hi Shai,
I am a silent follower of your blog, my guess for sep'2011 expiry is 5000 exactly, there may be 5 or 10 points here or there but positions will be at maximum pain @ 5000 so my guess is 5000.
@Shai,
My view near to 4900 + - 20 points, depend on Option open interest.
@Shai:
Nifty should expire around 4865, after wiping out 5000CE and 4900CE writers.
Regards
Vinod
my view was expiry at 4800
close to 5050
Its like trade everyday as it comes and dont bother looking at bigger tf for structure...! just stick to a smaller tf and scalp for 15-20 points...! dont carry anything as we never have any continuity on the eod chart...!
Trade is within value of yesterday.
80 % was the only high probable set-up, But you are right about the lack of connectivity.
@ Shai,
excellent job on the profiling...! this is one of the elusive chapters on TA that always bounced over my head. I always thought of MP as a hindsight analyst's tool.
Thanks for proving my notion wrong...!
5008 is expiry level that wat i feel. thanks
5008 is expiry level that wat i feel. thanks
4937 is my expiry target :)
thanks :)
4850 for me..
Dear Shai!
Thanx for sending mail to me either i miss this interesting game. I dont believe in predicting but love to follow market. But its interesting to participate so my guess is, it should be near 4860. Lets see how it unfolds:)
Bizagra,Jigs, Tarique, Traveller, Murughar, Ravi, VK,Kailash, Musti.
All your levels have been noted.Thank you for participating.
All emails sent get an auto reply as an acknowledgment of receipt.
Kumar technicals,
You put it rightly. It's just a game.
Your level noted.
Dear Shai,
Expiry could be around 4966
Thanks
Hello Shai,
I would like to put my expiry number at 4845
looks like near 4980
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