From last night's post, the market did consolidate but not between 5642 and 5690 as expected, but it was 25 points higher between 5665 and 5714, but the upper estimate for the day at 5728 was kept.
In the process, the profile became balanced indicating that the Steidlmayer imbalance period may be over and we may be making efforts to find a new balance at current levels. Accordingly we shifted our bias from aggressive long to neutral for the week.
Let's look at the profile :
Point 1 : is the low of the day at the top end of the single print mentioned yesterday in friday's profile.
Point 2 : represented the anomaly from yesterday and the repair job was done here today.
Point 3 : the highs of the day near 5728 completed the distribution after rectifying the anomaly.
Point 4 : is of interest tomorrow only on a price probe below 5649. Should that happen 5575 and 5589 should come in play
To answer a few questions now :
1) We have changed our bias to neutral more as a measure of risk than any perceptible weakness which we saw in price today.Our stated position is that the risk of being excessively long is high here considered the series expiry volatility and financial year closings.As we did not go below 5642/ 52, the responsive seller seen earlier today is not strong enough.
2) For tomorrow, if we trade above the point of control at 5710, we should go on to hit 5737 and 5757/64.Minor weakness will be below value area low at 5682 towards 5665/ 5649 below which point 4 mentioned above should play out.
3) On the other question of the 200 dma, our charts showed rotation at the HVN of 5714 and an avid profiler would give that more importance than a lagging moving average. The advantage of profile is that it is a sum of the buyer/ seller reaction of all the possible indicators and tools used by traders. Profile measures all buyer/ seller activity irrespective of the fact that the buyer or seller sold/ bought at 200 DMA or elsewhere.
Have a profitable day.
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