In many ways the big trend day was a game changer and the structure still holds value upwards as long as the region of 5470-82 is protected in the short term.
But let's step away from the short term and let's see what the markets are doing over the mid-term with probabilities for the long term scenario.
Here is a weekly chart of the Nifty spot.
It's a weekly bar chart stretching back to 2250 levels, but for purpose of clarity I have chosen to highlight only the last one year of bars.
If you have been following the markets closely, you would have noted the markets coming back to and falling off from this region where we have closed yesterday.
On a monthly time frame, this area ( point 1) is the high value zone for the entire up move from 2252 to 6338 and there is good reason to believe that if we close march series above this level we will be back on our ways to previous highs and maybe more.
Also around this zone is the developing weekly value ( point 2 at 5524) for the downtrend which has been in place from November last year.
So for the medium term, if we cross these levels (5550) , it should bring 5900 ( point 4) eventually.
Let's turn to the short term profile.
We'll look at the march future.
The profile chart shows :
a) a seller at the top near 5610 levels. This seller on 18th Feb at the same level had dropped the market to 5230 by the 25th ( one week)
b) short term support is 5472-93 below which we will see 5377/ 5340.
c) If the single print and 5646 is taken out, this market can race upto 5805 in no time.
Safe trading.
Posts
17 comments:
Thanks Shai, for the imp lvls.
good post shai..
but do tell me when to buy for longer term..4984 or 5646..
or not to buy at all these equities..monday morning thnx to dmk will open 5472..
do post view on crude too..
what i rembr u said 7200 if aud/jpy,es,euro,hg and crude at these good levels ..still v lagging behind
Manu,
Levels given are always ref points which hold information during price probes. It's imp to watch mkt reaction at such points and nobody can tell with absolute certainty that prices will turn before we get there!!
With regards to the political development, the open will tell us whether the mkt is paying attention to the development or chooses to ignore it.
It's not the news, it's always the market's reaction to the news that holds the key!
""""Also around this zone is the developing weekly value ( point 2 at 5524) for the downtrend which has been in place from November last year.
""""""
amazing shai..if u check 2007-08 charts u will find some one sitting tight here...this is a bigger hurdle than 200 dma..if crossed..then up and up..slowly
Manu,
Crude is extremely news driven now and do not believe any of the technical mumbo jumbo out there regarding it.
Just ask-how many of those guys called the move in adv at this time of the year?
I'm watching the Saudi 'day of rage' on friday and calls for a revolution there on 20th. These are events which will affect the global demand supply.
Manu,
I'm surprised a senior pro like you is mentioning 200 dma and other moving averages.
Dude, that is the kind of trading the masses do and the masses get it wrong 90 % of the time.
If you think, that you will be successsful in trading based on moving averages and crossovers, then you might as well donate your money to charity.
Moving averages by their nature are lagging indicators used to confirm our trades. They cannot be used to predict future prices.They look great in back tested results, but in real markets they will always fail.
rajeev..hi..
first 200-50 dma are for portfolio with respect to interest rates and not trading..bigger picture..
thr is a time to put money in equities and when in FDs..
when the rate will peaking shift to equities
one more thing..
i m not a senior..still learning and years to learn
:)
only mrkt s senior
@ Manu, If you consider inflation, effective return of an FD is less than 1 %. How is it a good investment?
In my book, moving averages, elliot waves are all bakwas more to attract attention post event than to actually help trading.
rajeev ..
how u invest i dont know..
i use portfolio,fd and fmp..
its case to case..
for intra /swing trading mp is good..
Manu, for me it is real estate and precious metals.
after 2008 I do not trust equities for appreciation.
and yes I am a big fan of market profile. has helped me to recover all my losses from 2008.
rajeev..
read him
http://technically--speaking.blogspot.com/
Manu,
Thanks. Like I said MA's are just for paper analysis like that gentleman is doing.they cannot help traders.it's just conjecture.
saw that gentleman on RV's blog too arguing about EW. typical of all ellioticians, they think that they are only right, all else is BS.
rajeev,
you seem to have some strong views on many subjects. do you write a blog as well?
I must say that I agree with all your views expressed here.
Your correct interpretation of bank Fd's is an eye-opener.How come they never tell us all of that.
Thanks rajshri.
Nah, I do not have a blog.It's a lot of work maintaining one and by nature I am a lazy person.
new post
Post a Comment