Monday, February 28, 2011
Profile charts for 1st march
Posted by Shai at 9:58 PM
- Nifty closed at the developing POC indicating balance for the day
- Buyers are holding the levels at 5304-5314, below which Nifty failed to auction today.
- 5304 will be a stop and reverse level for longs with target of 5229 below and 5391 above
- an auction back to 5391 will complete a balance profile for a directional 150 point (min) move either side.
When everybody was bearish, we played neutral as POC told us that buyers were in the market and longs with a stop n reverse at 5304 would have been an excellent risk/reward trade.
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10 comments:
I was following your blog for a while, and now feel bad that I dropped out.
It's a pity you do not post this analysis for all of us.
Market profile is like fresh air compared to all the other kinds of analysis out there.
Hope we get more from you at this place.
@ aayushman,
The idea behind posting charts and analysis at V2 is to follow up the overnight analysis with orderflow and real time information.
Vtrender-2 is my writing pad which is public, just like my charts in the trading room.
I do not mind posting profile analysis here at vtrender, but in the absence of feedback, it does not serve a point.
Currently happier with the smaller community we have at V2, which is focused on MP concepts.
As far as my commitment to this place is concerned, you would note that I am still active intra day in the chat box on the right.
Shai,
I'm hearing calls for 5900 and 6000 in the Nifty already.I see that you have also brought 5800 calls. do you think we will see those numbers?
Can market profile project those figures now?
If you posted this analysis at 9.58 pm yesterday then I agree with Manu in the chat that it is 'perfect' in hindsight and one of the finest pieces of TA seen.
plenty of people falling over each other claiming that their analysis and their indicators predicted this 200 point move today.
a popular blog claims his sar method added momentum and another gives an 'alternate' count which would have still been right had we gone down 200 points today!
I read with interest your site as it always presents a different view.
Many times you employ the words, buyers and sellers to describe the market?Considering that for every buyer there is a seller to move the price, isn't that definition skewed?
shouldn't there be equal buying and selling at the end of the day?
Much Shai has written above, his analysis and its methodology is currently beyond my knowledge and comprehension of MP. All I know is that Shai is able to gauge the mood of the market better than others. He is not biased and lets the market speak to him. (Notwithstanding he can go wrong too, and he openly admits it here as well - and this is what I like about his writings).
to Rajshri, I know of no indicator which can predict 200 point 3% move in one day ; nor any indicator of sure-reversal. It is all probability with corresponding SL. Get confidence in your set-up and rest falls in place. To me the Narcissus claim over the popular SAR less said the better, and EW is just post-facto illusion (all directions multi)count.
Do not try to predict the market. Let it guide you. Follow the waves as they unfold. Adjust the sails to the winds.
@ Aayushman,
The only reason the market closed at it's high yesterday despite the holiday was that it was a trend day which tends to close at the highs of the session.
Certainly, a market which moves 3% in one day will give up some of it's gains the next day, the percentage of which is a moot point.
We'll treat the pullback levels of 5484 and 5421 as ref points beyond which 5377/ 5314 are possible.
The short term structure is in place for a larger up move, but still precocius.
Markets move from bull to balance to bear and the other way around too
Anonymous 12.24,
Whilst it certainly true that for every buyer, there exists a seller, many times the exchange occurs across time frames.
We identify that as scalpers, day traders, short term, mid and long term buyers/ sellers and the exchange of price happens across the board from one to the other.
This exchange can be monitored as Open interest. It's also the reason why we pay so much to Girish's open interest analysis as well as adv-decl data.
@ alphabet 1,
"Do not try to predict the market. Let it guide you. Follow the waves as they unfold. Adjust the sails to the winds"
...very well put.
Yes, alphabet1
You said it well.
Soothe-sayers will be plenty till soothe-seekers are plentier.
At such sites post-occassion claims only are accurate.
Shai's strength is the open-minded approach, and unique presentation, and admission when going wrong.
You & Shai have this approach to reality with clear thoughts, which I admire.
prabu
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