Viren here.
Today's market action was strongly bullish and though we came off the highs of the morning, buyers did enough to keep sellers at bay.Being above value all day and keeping sellers at bay justified the bullish behaviour exhibited since yesterday.So the day belongs to the Bulls.
I am not posting any charts today, but just expressing an opinion of the state of the market as it is. I have fallen in line with Shai's view that this market will see Nifty go north of 5300 and more before we see any reaction. His reasoning is very simple- When our friends from across the pacific can take their index to new yearly high's , how can we lag begind?.So we see 5315 printed tomorrow?? maybe.
From a swing trading perspective I am keeping an eye out for the Open interest accumulated at 5000 on the put side. Yesterday I saw writers behave suspiciously as they were reducing their exposure when the market was moving strongly.Today my doubts were confirmed when EOD stats showed a reduction of 5 %. I need more confirmation tomorrow for me to take action on this interesting development.Maybe, writers are using the low IV's to square off---but that also means that they are expecting IV's to increase and we all know what that means.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
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9 comments:
GM all
Value areas:
Nifty : 5256-5239-5235
BN :9180-9203-9218
So far value is being protected.
The tape so far suggests that larger time-frame participants are on the side-lines waiting and watching.
I would exercise caution as a large move may unfold suddenly. Let's watch..
VAH of Nifty and BN..
Buy Bn above 9246 for 9290, Sl 9225
hi,
can u mail me ur open interest excel sheet with guidelines on how to use it. will be very helpful. my mail id is ankitsolanki@in.com
thanks.
ankit
Nifty rotating in value.
I'm at the cross roads with 2 opposite views.
On one hand I have Shai and the Open Interst data pointing out a move to 5315 before expiry and on the other hand Market profile tells me that a move to 5170- 5180 is imminent to fill the low volume region from Tuesday.
Which one will it be? or can we get both before expiry next week? If that is the case which will come first?
Along with me the market is also at the cross-roads---15 point range for the past 4 hours in the Nifty.
Well the only inference I can draw from today's trade is that sellers lost their chance to drive prices lower. Price spent about an hour below VAL, but there was no conviction by the sellers to drive it down further.
So for the moment I am leaning a bit more on higher prices from here. 5315 calling.
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