Nifty EOD 16th march

Hey all,

I received a few emails from some serious readers about my lack of posts on this blog for the past several days.

There were two reasons- the first being that I took off, on an unscheduled R&R on Thursday noon and the second being that the markets didn't do anything in between my last post and this morning.Quite seriously, when I returned back to my lappy on Monday afternoon I found the Nifty at the exact same spot I left it on Thursday noon at 5133 odd levels.

That being said, we did get a serious upmove later this afternoon. Let's look at the charts:


I had mentioned that an exit of value was the best approach in a range-bound market in my last post here. For those who stuck to this strategy the benefit today, would have been far more than the wrong moves we had before today. I'll be the first to admit that I took a 15 point hit at the top of the range expecting a pull back, when I should have quietly followed the plan as per the blog.Nevertheless I did make up with a quick 30 point gain at the end of the session.

The increased value and the volume point to the fact that it was not just short covering but genuine buying which took the market higher.For tomorrow I want to see a retest of 5165-5180 region before the market decides to climb higher.Watch VAL carefully if we get there.

Reliance I had mentioned earlier as one of my generals, without which Nifty will find it difficult to make big moves.Today it came to the party in a big way closing at 1069 levels for a 40 point gain.


Of the 3 charts put up today, Bank Nifty looks the weakest. The upmove from 1.30 wasn't very convincing and I will be very surprised if we do not test 9025-9010 levels again.

Starting tomorrow, I intend to hangout in the comments section and would be posting my intra-day updates and my observations as I see them. Shai has also agreed to share his views of the global indices and their influence on the Nifty.So do drop in and share your views if any.