So here they are..
I want to begin by thanking Mr. Illango for the recognition he has given to this blog on his site http://tradeinniftyonly.blogspot.com/.
We are a young blog and require all the support and encouragement from experienced bloggers such as him.Thank you very much.
I also want to thank Viren for the way he has put us all ahead of the market for the past 150 points-up and down. My appetite has been whetted for some more profitable set-ups from him.
I want to share with you this evening the Open Interest table for April:
With the extended holiday weekend coming up, option writers have utilised the opportunity to write both the 5300 call as well as the 5200 put, with an eye on theta decay.
This can be seen in the Open Interest at both the above strikes, which are the highest.
I do not expect any significant movement in the market tomorrow. We may remain range-bound.
However looking further into next week, it can be safely assumed that one of the strikes will give way, as you cannot expect Nifty to be in a 100 point range till expiry.Also OI is above 5 million at each strike, so a break will bring a lot of momentum. Based on the current Implied volatilty the range for April expiry comes to 5000-5500. So whichever way the break-out occurs, there is a 200 point movement to be had either side.
The charts I had uploaded last week in this post on Seasonality and Markets here paint a picture of a bullish early April.
However, even if you take a non-directional view and buy the 5200 put and the 5300 call at around 80 each on Monday (not tomorrow), you will still have a profitable trade on your hands, as soon as you get a confirmed break of either level.
Posts
19 comments:
shai, viren
with your purposeful simplicity, sans trumpeting, and with your plain and useful presentation you would go a long way.
all the best.
balle balle shai:)
co-relation studies awaited:)
GM All.
Dear Viren/Shai,
"It can be safely assumed that one of the strikes will give way, as you cannot expect Nifty to be in a 100 point range till expiry".Thanks.Concentrating some times on just day to day activity this important point was forgotten.Thanks for reminding the same.
Quick trade :
Short Nifty 5279, Sl 5296,Tgt 5258.
Mok and Mynac,
Thank U.
Manu,
I had forgotten. Thank u for reminding.Will put it up this weekend.
Viren, please update whenever you are exiting from your shorts taken @ 5279..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
Our trade in the Nifty is not going to plan.But let's hold out.I think we have a good SL.
BN is doing excellent. Beautiful moves btw value which are always good supp and res.
Thanks Viren, Today's short kept SL@ 5296.15 and i holding Conservative shorts also@ 5285..
Confusing where to exit those CS shorts looks like Ilango sir exited yesterday its self@ 5250.
Thanks,
Ramesh.
Watching BN here, currently below value.
If it moves down, it will take our trade along.
Reliance is strong and above value, keeping the Nifty up.
The coil is tightening.
5276-5296 can go either way.
Success % of our trade is now only 50% was about 80 % in the morning, as we have a major MP rule called the 80% rule.
" When the market opens above VAH and gets into the value area, odds of it reaching VAL are 80%".
SL taken. Make an exit in morning trade.
5296.5 now.
If it can't break out-it will break down..
5294, 5290-5280.
We'll watch.
15 more minutes, price is still at 5296.
No sign of the seller yet, since morning.
BTw 1.40 and 2.15 he's showed up previously.
hello Viren,
Can you post the AFL for the AB chart posted above.
Sam,
The charts are from Quotetracker.
www.quotetracker.com.
Viren....can u plz guide me to the source of MA chart you use ?
hi viren, shai
plz give your weekend posting on nifty now.
thanks.
@ anonmous,
see the previous comment for the chart source.
thank you mok !
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