FnO Datasheet Weekend Update

My notes:

1. In my last notes, I have stated that November series has added 2.2 crore OI which is approximately 80% of total OI between the price range 5100-5200. I said longs are safe above the zone. I further said that the reaction when  price reaches the zone will determine the outcome of the series. Friday, we made an entry into the zone and promptly 8.6L contracts OI reduction happened. Now, is it the smart money or the weak money which covered the longs is what is interesting. 
2. FII have net sold 52K contracts yesterday and their OI has increased by 15K contracts. We already know that they are long in the series, so, it is safe to assume that they have covered 37K long contracts. 
3. From October 19th, when we started tracking this series, in 15 days of trading, DII have sold equities on 11 days. Not a comforting statistic, if you are a bull. Even on the 4 days, when they did not sell, the buy amount is very minimal. So, one thing is obvious - the DII do not think that, the equities are in for any major bounce soon. 
4. I said in my last notes that, even the institutions are playing it on a series by series outlook, and FII buying in equities is an example of that. The high premium on NF is another illustration that, the game is being played in FnO segment only.
5. In the option table, some very interesting things happened. The 5200PE and 5300PE covering and call writing at 5200CE are the first things that come to attention. The second aspect that caught my attention was the put covering at 4900PE and 5000PE. We are trading a decent 200 points above - why some one was in a hurry to cover 4900PE - weak longs or smart longs? Make your conviction and trade it. :)
6. To continue with the option table, there has been Call covering at 5600CE - probably profit booking. But, the absolute reluctance of people to write calls at 5300 is another interesting aspect. If 5200CE has added 15L contracts, 5300CE at a decent 43points by close should be inviting significant writers' money. But, absolutely no addition there. My take, we are going to touch 4900 or 5300 soon - depending on which side the smart money is. :)
7. The PCR is in the neutral zone of 0.95. In November series, so far, there is total OI of 3.35 crore on the Call side and 4.25 crore on the Put side. So, the activity is more on the Put side, indicating option writers are bullishly confident. However, on Friday, 18.7L of Calls are written and 2.9L of Puts covered. It indicates that Put writers are not really scared as yet for any steep fall. Further, out of 18.7L calls, 15.3L calls are written at single strike 5200CE. So, Call writers are also still not confident of any steep fall. My first guess - a range bound movement for the next few days before we make a directional movement. We will continue to monitor this activity and study its implications as we move along.
8. The FII SAR that we have been tracking stands at 5118 on Friday. The SAR presents an interesting observation. If you observe in the last two days, the SAR fell significantly lower. It was at 5255 on Tuesday and fell by 140 points in 2 days to reach 5118. I would like to bring to your notice that in those 2 days, we have traded significantly higher than the average suggests - in fact in high 5200s and 5300s in the span. The average SAR price reduction means that - there is no fresh buying done by FII in the last 2 days - and further they have booked profits in significant lots in these 2 days on the long side - as the average came down considerably. ( Your average price comes down - when you book profit.)  My guess is - due to this activity - the upside is limited - and we may be in for some range bound movement with slight negative bias. 
9. Where do we go from here? I have an interesting stat for you - the average option buy price and average option sell price. The average option buy price 5164 is less than the average sell price 5180. And in fact both the average prices are less than the lower end of the traded zone. It basically means that most of the activity happened at lower strikes than the Nifty traded zone. To illustrate - if there is more activity at 5300 strike, the average price will move higher - due to that activity. So, most of the activity happened in the lower strike prices. A quick glance in the option table shows that, there can be two places where options can be bought. I find that 5200CE or 4900PE suit our requirement. My guess - FII bought one of those two. We will know soon what it is :)
10. Though I may not be able to present complete verbal notes regularly,I will be updating the datasheet on a daily basis. I believe that by this time most of you are quite familiar with my thinking process - and can make out what I write based on the data. :). Please keep offering your feedback - it is quite valuable to me.
11. You can find the entire datasheet here .