Wednesday, November 23, 2011

FnO Datasheet Nov Expiry

My notes:

  1. I said in my last notes that there is a possibility that "the longs in the zone this week are like a deer in front of the headlights" and panic will strike expiry week. Hope you are on the right side of the trade.
  2. There has been relent less selling in the market for last one week. In the series, FII have sold approximately 1.2L contracts. From 30 points premium NF has slid to 5 point discount at one point today. RM's MO at -95 and staying above -80 for 3 days consecutively demonstrates the extent of selling. 
  3. Wednesday FII sold 1300 crore worth 54K contracts again. So, it appears the series would expire at its lows. It is important to note that at no point of time, the OI of any strike did not cross 80L. From my observation, it is difficult to count any strike as support till it crosses 80L OI. 
  4. Starting 15th Nov, FII have net sold 4000 crore worth of equities. That indicates the gravity of the situation we are in. The INR at life time lows is not helping the matters either. It is interesting to observe that the equity selling increasing in its quantum from 195 crore to 1200 crore yesterday. It confirms my belief that equities are delayed FnO cycle now. Probably this cycle gets terminated with some spectacular display today/first day of new series :) It is important to note that DII have stepped up their equity buying in the last 3-4 days. Otherwise the damage could have been more severe. Now, whether DII are buying the equities as an opportunity or as a compulsion is what will determine the next course of action.
  5. I said in my last notes that, referencing the OI table is not prudent - as none of the strikes have an OI that can withstand such movement. I continue to carry the same opinion. However, I would like to point to two significant observations that Girish shared in the trading room which proved to be decisive. Firstly, when the market was trading in the 5200s, for two consecutive days, huge buying happened in 5100PE Dec - approximately of 23L contracts. While bringing it to the room's notice, Girish said that - either the fall will come in December or it is done so as to escape immediate attention. How correct he has proved to be! The second important factor happened yesterday again. Yesterday there has been 12L addition in 4500PE Dec. Is it a case of the same story or a double bluff this time? Take your call - there is the key to next series. :)
  6. I have added the sheet for December series as well - and am trying to monitor the OI increase and roll overs to December series. NF Dec series has built 1.88 crore OI so far - and out of which 1.1 crore has been built in the last 3 days. It is important to note that in 2 out of those 3 days, FII have been net buyers in index futures. Further, their OI has increased by 2.2L contracts in these 3 days. NF traded in the zone 4750-4850 in the first two days, and traded between 4680-4750 on the last day. So, this is the zone which will be important reference to the December series. There are two possibilities that one can see. The 2.2L contracts addition are shorts and 4500PE December has been bought by smart money - indicating much lower lows in December. Secondly, The 2.2L contracts addition are longs at the lows, and 4500PE December has been written by smart money - indicating a smart year end rally on the cards. Take your pick and right pick will be handsomely rewarded. :)
  7. The FII SAR that we have been tracking has reached 4658 yesterday. Our experience suggests that, we should stay long above it and stay short below it. Keep following that number as it gives a very good clue to the institutions' view on the market.
  8. All the columns in the data sheet have their value in understanding the complete picture. For example, take the net average figure of 22nd November. It shows 4163. It is far lower to the range in which Nf has traded in the day. When the Net Figure is very low, it indicates that there is a lot of profit booking/day trading that happened. If we observe the action on 22nd November, there was a minor rally in place. So, we had a rally and profit booking happening on the part of institutions. That will help you equip yourself for an impending fall coming the next day. One of the reasons, I carried those 4700PE. :) All I am suggesting is keep your eyes and ears open to the data in the sheet. Slowly, the data sheet will start speaking to you. Listen to it - It will equip you much better to handle the next trading day. 
  9. You can find the entire data sheet here

4 comments:

Vtrender said...

Thanks Kris.

All points noted.

r m said...

Thanks Kris!

I am speechless (for a change!), so not adding superfluous words like brilliant, incisive etc. :)

Girish Desai said...

Thanks Kris.

There's one thing to notice the OI change of a particular strike early and there's another thing to profit from it. One could have just bought what the smart money was buying DEC 5100PE in the zone of 95-125 bucks, which probably traded 400+ yesterday!

VK said...

@Kris, bang on point as always, congrats!