Thursday, October 20, 2011

FnO Datasheet 20-10-2011

I said yesterday that "the bus is getting crowded". Looks some off-loading happened today.
My notes:

  1. FII have net sold 24K contracts today and their OI has increased by 19K contracts. So, most likely they have added some shorts. 
  2. There has been 18L contract roll-over happened today. When you add 24L contracts rolled over yesterday, we have 42L contracts have been rolled over between 5050-5150 price zone. Considering that we are having around 2 crore OI on an average for the series, this is approximately 20%. So, this price zone will have a crucial bearing in the next series as well.
  3. Yesterday I have pointed to the abnormal addition of 5100PE. I further said that the rally can be easily manipulated as it is not backed up by equity volumes. You can see the effects today.
  4. We have opened today at 5098 and closed the day at 5103. So, it has been a scalpers day. 
  5. In the equity segment, both FII and DII have been sellers. However, not in large volumes, but look just sufficient enough to induce the fall. :)
  6. The option table is providing an alternate color every day. There have been 42L calls written in 5000CE, 5100CE and 5200CE. Though 5100PE covered 10L contracts in the morning, during the recovery in the afternoon, entire volume has been written back.  Those 42L calls do look like written in haste. 
  7. FII have bought significantly more number of options than writing them today. It matches with our estimate yesterday that, a direction is round the corner. There are 2 possibilities of them buying options. The 13L contracts written at 4500PE is one and the 5000CE, 5100CE and 5200CE are the second. Either of them indicate that a direction is round the corner. :) I would be more biased to the Calls than Puts. For the Puts to come into money, we need a down circuit. :). 
  8. Where do we go from here? Our OI SAR is at 5068. Yesterday the SAR was at 5106, we opened below that and promptly NF fell by 60 points. Let us continue to monitor this SAR.
  9. The complete datasheet is here

5 comments:

r m said...

Thanks Kris!

VK said...

@Kris

Nifty promptly took off from 5070 (5068 is today's OI SAR) towards the yesterday's OI SAR 5106 :). Good analysis as usual. See you @ the trading room.

Regards

Vinod

Bramesh said...

Thanks a lot for ur analysis

I have a doubt om 19 Oct Nifty OI was reduced by -1,196,900 but u have mentioned Roll over of 24 Lakh contract ..

I think it should be 12 Lakhs

Am i missing something in this.

Appreciate if you can answer the query.

Rgds

Chivukula Krishnamohan said...

@Bramesh,

The idea is to indicate 24L addition in the November Series. Out of which, 12L might have been from this series. So strictly speaking rollover is 12L only, but my purpose was to show that 24L have been added in Nov at this price range.
Apologies for causing confusion.

Bramesh said...

Hi Sir,

Thanks a lot for clarifying the doubt.

You are doing a great Job and i admire the way u present the data.

Thanks again and have a nice weekend ahead